Ahead of the 2023 Free Agency period, HockeyComparables.com launched as a project to predict contracts for pending free agents who remained unsigned as of June 7, 2023.
A list of the Top 50 Free Agents was created, with players designated in this category receiving projection articles for their contracts (or analysis articles, if the contract was signed prior to the article being released). All other players had contracts projected at different terms on the applicable page, based on expiry status (RFA/UFA).
All 2023 projection pages are available here, with a full list of results also below.
Full Results
The table is filtered in the following order: 1. Term, 2. Actual Cap Hit, 3. Last Name, to display projected cap hit versus actual cap hit for the player’s signing term. A percentage error was then calculated based on the difference between the projected cap hit and actual cap hit.
Note: the table only includes players who had a contract projected for that signing term. For example, the likes of Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield did not have seven-year projections created based on the unlikelihood of that term. With no way to calculate a percentage error (given a different contract term than projected), they were not included in the first table below.
| Player | Term | Status | Projected Cap Hit | Actual Cap Hit | Difference ($M) | % Error |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 8 | RFA | $8.50M | $8.50M | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Terry | 7 | RFA | $7.71M | $7.00M | $0.71M | 10.1% |
| Ryan Graves | 6 | UFA | $5.00M | $4.50M | $0.50M | 11.1% |
| Tristan Jarry | 5 | UFA | $5.00M | $5.38M | $0.38M | 7.6% |
| J.T. Compher | 5 | UFA | $5.50M | $5.10M | $0.40M | 7.8% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 5 | UFA | $5.00M | $5.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Killorn | 4 | UFA | $5.50M | $6.25M | $0.75M | 12.0% |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 4 | UFA | $6.00M | $4.50M | $1.50M | 33.3% |
| Ross Colton | 4 | RFA | $3.38M | $4.00M | $0.62M | 15.5% |
| Trevor Zegras | 3 | RFA | $6.50M | $5.75M | $0.75M | 13.0% |
| Radko Gudas | 3 | UFA | $3.00M | $4.00M | $1.00M | 25.0% |
| Justin Holl | 3 | UFA | $2.50M | $3.40M | $0.90M | 26.5% |
| Connor Clifton | 3 | UFA | $2.50M | $3.33M | $0.83M | 24.9% |
| Carson Soucy | 3 | UFA | $2.75M | $3.25M | $0.50M | 15.4% |
| Erik Haula | 3 | UFA | $3.33M | $3.15M | $0.18M | 5.7% |
| Niko Mikkola | 3 | UFA | $2.00M | $2.50M | $0.50M | 20.0% |
| Conor Sheary | 3 | UFA | $2.33M | $2.00M | 0.33 | 16.5% |
| Noel Acciari | 3 | UFA | $1.67M | $2.00M | 0.33 | 16.5% |
| Andreas Athanasiou | 2 | UFA | $2.50M | $4.25M | 1.75 | 41.2% |
| Evan Bouchard | 2 | RFA | $3.75M | $3.90M | 0.15 | 3.8% |
| Alex Kerfoot | 2 | UFA | $3.25M | $3.50M | 0.25 | 7.1% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 2 | RFA | $3.50M | $3.43M | 0.07 | 2.0% |
| Frederik Andersen | 2 | UFA | $4.00M | $3.40M | 0.60 | 17.6% |
| Gustav Nyquist | 2 | UFA | $3.50M | $3.19M | 0.31 | 9.7% |
| Brian Dumoulin | 2 | UFA | $4.13M | $3.15M | 0.98 | 31.1% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $3.10M | 0.60 | 19.4% |
| William Borgen | 2 | RFA | $1.65M | $2.70M | 1.05 | 38.9% |
| Tanner Jeannot | 2 | RFA | $2.25M | $2.67M | 0.42 | 15.7% |
| Noah Cates | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $2.63M | 0.13 | 4.9% |
| Cody Glass | 2 | RFA | $2.65M | $2.50M | 0.15 | 6.0% |
| Lars Eller | 2 | UFA | $1.85M | $2.45M | 0.60 | 24.5% |
| Jesper Fast | 2 | UFA | $2.25M | $2.40M | 0.15 | 6.3% |
| Garnet Hathaway | 2 | UFA | $1.75M | $2.38M | 0.63 | 26.5% |
| Alexis Lafreniere | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $2.33M | 0.17 | 7.3% |
| Trent Frederic | 2 | RFA | $2.25M | $2.30M | 0.05 | 2.2% |
| Evgenii Dadonov | 2 | UFA | $1.50M | $2.25M | 0.75 | 33.3% |
| Philipp Kurashev | 2 | RFA | $1.70M | $2.25M | 0.55 | 24.4% |
| Nick Bjugstad | 2 | UFA | $1.90M | $2.10M | 0.20 | 9.5% |
| Ryan McLeod | 2 | RFA | $2.05M | $2.10M | 0.05 | 2.4% |
| Ethan Bear | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $2.06M | 0.44 | 21.4% |
| Ryan Donato | 2 | UFA | $1.70M | $2.00M | 0.30 | 15.0% |
| Morgan Geekie | 2 | RFA | $2.00M | $2.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Klim Kostin | 2 | RFA | $1.60M | $2.00M | 0.40 | 20.0% |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 2 | UFA | $1.75M | $2.00M | 0.25 | 12.5% |
| Brett Howden | 2 | RFA | $1.75M | $1.90M | 0.15 | 7.9% |
| Jack McBain | 2 | RFA | $1.55M | $1.60M | 0.05 | 3.1% |
| Pius Suter | 2 | UFA | $2.00M | $1.60M | 0.40 | 25.5% |
| Cam York | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $1.60M | 0.90 | 56.3% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 2 | RFA | $1.85M | $1.45M | 0.40 | 27.6% |
| Dylan Samberg | 2 | RFA | $1.15M | $1.40M | 0.25 | 17.9% |
| Nathan Bastian | 2 | RFA | $1.65M | $1.35M | 0.30 | 22.2% |
| Morgan Barron | 2 | RFA | $1.40M | $1.35M | 0.05 | 3.7% |
| Alexei Toropchenko | 2 | RFA | $1.15M | $1.25M | 0.10 | 8.0% |
| Mathieu Olivier | 2 | RFA | $1.05M | $1.10M | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Raphael Harvey-Pinard | 2 | RFA | $1.30M | $1.10M | 0.20 | 18.2% |
| Rasmus Kupari | 2 | RFA | $1.10M | $1.00M | 0.10 | 10.0% |
| Matt Nieto | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.90M | 0.10 | 11.1% |
| Derek Ryan | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.90M | 0.10 | 11.1% |
| Alex Lyon | 2 | UFA | $1.15M | $0.90M | 0.25 | 27.8% |
| Lukas Dostal | 2 | RFA | $1.05M | $0.81M | 0.24 | 29.6% |
| Josh Archibald | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.80M | 0.20 | 25.0% |
| Luke Glendening | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.80M | 0.20 | 25.0% |
| John Klingberg | 1 | UFA | $3.50M | $4.15M | 0.65 | 15.7% |
| Nick Foligno | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $4.00M | 2.50 | 63.0% |
| Corey Perry | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $4.00M | 3.00 | 75.0% |
| Ilya Samsonov | 1 | RFA | $3.25M | $3.55M | 0.30 | 8.5% |
| Jeremy Swayman | 1 | RFA | $3.75M | $3.48M | 0.27 | 7.8% |
| Erik Johnson | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $3.25M | 2.00 | 61.5% |
| Ian Cole | 1 | UFA | $3.00M | $3.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Max Domi | 1 | UFA | $5.00M | $3.00M | 2.00 | 66.7% |
| Patrick Kane | 1 | UFA | $8.00M | $2.75M | 5.25 | 190.9% |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $2.50M | 1.25 | 100.0% |
| Erik Brannstrom | 1 | RFA | $1.35M | $2.00M | 0.65 | 32.5% |
| Tyson Jost | 1 | RFA | $2.25M | $2.00M | 0.25 | 12.5% |
| Max Pacioretty | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $2.00M | 1.00 | 100.0% |
| Daniel Sprong | 1 | UFA | $1.80M | $2.00M | 0.20 | 10.0% |
| Sean Monahan | 1 | UFA | $1.75M | $1.99M | 0.24 | 12.1% |
| Antti Raanta | 1 | UFA | $2.25M | $1.50M | 0.75 | 50.0% |
| James Reimer | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.50M | 0 | 0 |
| Tomas Tatar | 1 | UFA | $5.00M | $1.50M | $3.50M | 233.3% |
| Michael McLeod | 1 | RFA | $1.35M | $1.40M | 0.05 | 3.6% |
| Ryan Poehling | 1 | RFA | $1.00M | $1.40M | 0.40 | 29.5% |
| Christian Fischer | 1 | RFA | $1.55M | $1.13M | 0.42 | 37.2% |
| Brandon Duhaime | 1 | RFA | $0.90M | $1.10M | 0.20 | 18.2% |
| Travis Hamonic | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $1.10M | 0.90 | 81.8% |
| Troy Stecher | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.10M | 0.40 | 36.4% |
| Anthony Stolarz | 1 | UFA | $1.15M | $1.10M | 0.05 | 4.5% |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $1.05M | 0.95 | 90.5% |
| Mattias Janmark | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.00M | 0.50 | 50.0% |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 1 | UFA | $1.75M | $1.00M | 0.75 | 75.0% |
| Milan Lucic | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Tomas Nosek | 1 | UFA | $1.75M | $1.00M | 0.75 | 75.0% |
| Craig Smith | 1 | UFA | $1.10M | $1.00M | 0.10 | 10.0% |
| Logan Stanley | 1 | RFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Talbot | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.00M | 0.50 | 50.0% |
| James van Riemsdyk | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.00M | 0.50 | 50.0% |
| Jordan Oesterle | 1 | UFA | $1.15M | $0.93M | 0.22 | 23.7% |
| Ty Dellandrea | 1 | RFA | $1.20M | $0.90M | 0.30 | 33.3% |
| Martin Jones | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $0.88M | 0.62 | 70.5% |
| David Rittich | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.88M | 0.12 | 13.6% |
| Oliver Wahlstrom | 1 | RFA | $1.50M | $0.87M | 0.63 | 72.4% |
| Denis Gurianov | 1 | RFA | $1.10M | $0.85M | 0.25 | 29.4% |
| Sam Steel | 1 | RFA | $1.50M | $0.85M | 0.65 | 76.5% |
| Andrew Cogliano | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.83M | 0.17 | 20.5% |
| Jonathan Drouin | 1 | UFA | $1.75M | $0.83M | 0.92 | 105.0% |
| Erik Gustafsson | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $0.83M | 1.17 | 142.0% |
| Jonathan Quick | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.83M | 0.17 | 20.5% |
| Joseph Veleno | 1 | RFA | $0.90M | $0.83M | 0.07 | 8.4% |
| Nick Bonino | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $0.80M | 0.45 | 56.3% |
| Cal Foote | 1 | RFA | $0.98M | $0.80M | 0.18 | 22.5% |
| Tyler Motte | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $0.80M | 0.70 | 87.5% |
| Alex Stalock | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.80M | 0.20 | 25.0% |
| Calen Addison | 1 | RFA | $1.30M | $0.78M | 0.52 | 66.7% |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan | 1 | RFA | $0.90M | $0.78M | 0.12 | 15.4% |
| Zach Aston-Reese | 1 | UFA | $1.15M | $0.78M | 0.37 | 47.4% |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.78M | 0.22 | 28.2% |
| Simon Benoit | 1 | RFA | $1.35M | $0.78M | 0.57 | 73.1% |
| Anders Bjork | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $0.78M | 0.09 | 11.5% |
| Jesper Boqvist | 1 | RFA | $1.20M | $0.78M | 0.42 | 53.8% |
| Connor Brown | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.78M | 0.22 | 28.2% |
| Max Comtois | 1 | RFA | $1.10M | $0.78M | 0.32 | 41.0% |
| Adam Erne | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.78M | 0.22 | 28.2% |
| Noah Gregor | 1 | RFA | $0.80M | $0.78M | 0.02 | 2.6% |
| Danton Heinen | 1 | UFA | $1.10M | $0.78M | 0.32 | 41.0% |
| Caleb Jones | 1 | RFA | $2.00M | $0.78M | 1.22 | 156.4% |
| Jujhar Khaira | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.78M | 0.22 | 28.2% |
| Joel Kiviranta | 1 | UFA | $1.05M | $0.78M | 0.27 | 34.6% |
| Shane Pinto | 1 | RFA | $1.65M | $0.78M | 0.87 | 111.5% |
| Mason Shaw | 1 | RFA | $0.85M | $0.78M | 0.07 | 9.0% |
| Austin Watson | 1 | UFA | $0.90M | $0.78M | 0.12 | 15.4% |
| Colin White | 1 | RFA | $1.20M | $0.78M | 0.42 | 53.8% |
Players with a Designation of ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’
In addition to the players who received projections at different lengths, there were also players who received a designation of ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’ for their projection. This was given to any player who was projected to receive a contract at less than a $1 million cap hit, for either one or two years.
Of the 106 players assigned this projection, only 6 other them signed deals worth more than a $1M cap hit. Of those six, five of them came in between $1M and $1.1M, with the sixth coming in at $1.5M, and all were for either one or two years.
All results for this designation are below (including 29 players who did not sign a new NHL contract).
| Player @ <$1M x 1/2 | Status | Actual Cap Hit | Term |
| Rasmus Asplund | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Gavin Bayreuther | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Alex Belzile | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Anton Blidh | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Tobias Bjornfot | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Logan Brown | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ryan Carpenter | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Alex Chiasson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Kale Clague | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Calvin de Haan | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Collin Delia | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Grigori Denisenko | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Casey Fitzgerald | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Sam Gagner | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Alex Galchenyuk | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Dylan Gambrell | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Robert Hagg | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Vinny Hinostroza | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Dryden Hunt | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Michael Hutchinson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Matt Irwin | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jack Johnson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Noah Juulsen | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Erik Kallgren | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Cole Koepke | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Karson Kuhlman | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Trevor Lewis | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| William Lockwood | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Jake Lucchini | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Matt Luff | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Connor Mackey | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jayson Megna | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Carson Meyer | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ben Meyers | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Victor Mete | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ian Mitchell | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Fredrik Olofsson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Lane Pederson | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Jacob Peterson | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Mark Pysyk | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Anthony Richard | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Devin Shore | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Chris Tierney | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Parker Wotherspoon | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jesse Ylonen | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Radim Zohorna | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Julien Gauthier | RFA | $0.79M | 2 |
| Joel Hanley | UFA | $0.79M | 2 |
| Magnus Hellberg | UFA | $0.79M | 1 |
| Jakub Lauko | RFA | $0.79M | 2 |
| Tyler Pitlick | UFA | $0.79M | 1 |
| Joey Anderson | RFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Samuel Bolduc | RFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Patrick Brown | UFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Travis Dermott | RFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Cale Fleury | RFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Pontus Holmberg | RFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Andreas Johnsson | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Brendan Lemieux | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Zachary Sanford | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Givani Smith | RFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker | RFA | $0.81M | 2 |
| Jonah Gadjovich | RFA | $0.81M | 1 |
| Zachary Jones | RFA | $0.81M | 2 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | RFA | $0.83M | 1 |
| Zach Parise | UFA | $0.83M | 1 |
| Dylan Coghlan | RFA | $0.85M | 1 |
| Drew O’Connor | RFA | $0.93M | 2 |
| Gustav Lindstrom | RFA | $0.95M | 1 |
| Andreas Englund | UFA | $1.00M | 2 |
| Kevin Stenlund | RFA | $1.00M | 1 |
| Kevin Bahl | RFA | $1.05M | 2 |
| Nils Hoglander | RFA | $1.10M | 2 |
| Marc Staal | UFA | $1.10M | 1 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | UFA | $1.50M | 1 |
| Rudolfs Balcers | RFA | – | – |
| Nathan Beaulieu | UFA | – | – |
| Kieffer Bellows | RFA | – | – |
| Jonathan Bernier | UFA | – | – |
| Jordie Benn | UFA | – | – |
| Anders Bjork | RFA | – | – |
| Derick Brassard | UFA | – | – |
| Laurent Dauphin | UFA | – | – |
| Joonas Donskoi | UFA | – | – |
| Alex Edler | UFA | – | – |
| Brian Elliott | UFA | – | – |
| Jesper Froden | UFA | – | – |
| Thomas Greiss | UFA | – | – |
| Libor Hajek | RFA | – | – |
| Scott Harrington | UFA | – | – |
| Darren Helm | UFA | – | – |
| Nick Holden | UFA | – | – |
| Patric Hornqvist | UFA | – | – |
| Ondrej Kase | UFA | – | – |
| Martin Kaut | RFA | – | – |
| Josh Leivo | UFA | – | – |
| Saku Maenalanen | UFA | – | – |
| Ryan Murray | UFA | – | – |
| Markus Nutivaara | UFA | – | – |
| Brett Ritchie | UFA | – | – |
| Wayne Simmonds | UFA | – | – |
| Eric Staal | UFA | – | – |
| Derek Stepan | UFA | – | – |
| Michael Stone | UFA | – | – |
| Evgeny Svechnikov | RFA | – | – |
Players without a Projection for their Contract Term
Of the 208 contracts signed where a projection was completed, 27 of them were signed at a contract term that was not projected (roughly 13 percent). Those projections are below, along with projections above the $1.00M x 1/2 designation for players where a contract was not signed.
| Player | Status | Projection | Actual Contract |
| Alex DeBrincat | RFA | $8.50M x 8 $8.00M x 7 $7.50M x 3 $9.00M x 1 | $7.78M x 4 |
| Dmitry Orlov | UFA | $5.50M x 6 $6.00M x 5 $6.25M x 4 | $7.75M x 2 |
| Jason Zucker | UFA | $5.20M x 5 $5.00M x 4 $4.50M x 3 | $5.30M x 1 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | UFA | $6.13M x 8 $6.13M x 7 $6.17M x 6 $6.00M x 5 $5.25M x 4 | $5.50M x 1 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | UFA | $7.00M x 5 $7.00M x 4 $7.00M x 3 | $5.00M x 1 |
| Michael Bunting | UFA | $4.67M x 6 $5.20M x 5 $5.25M x 4 | $4.50M x 3 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | UFA | $4.50M x 2 $4.33M x 3 $5.00M x 2 | $4.13M x 1 |
| Joonas Korpisalo | UFA | $4.75M x 4 $4.00M x 3 $3.50M x 2 $3.00M x 1 | $4.00M x 5 |
| Matt Dumba | UFA | $5.50M x 6 $5.50M x 5 $5.25M x 4 | $3.90M x 1 |
| Scott Mayfield | UFA | $3.50M x 5 $3.75M x 4 $4.00M x 3 $4.00M x 2 | $3.50M x 7 |
| Pierre Engvall | UFA | $3.25M x 4 $3.00M x 3 $2.75M x 2 | $3.00M x 7 |
| Evan Rodrigues | UFA | $3.33M x 3 $2.50M x 2 $2.25M x 1 | $3.00M x 4 |
| Alex Newhook | RFA | $2.50M x 3 $2.05M x 2 | $2.90M x 4 |
| Jordan Staal | UFA | $2.25M x 2 $3.00M x 1 | $2.90M x 4 |
| Semyon Varlamov | UFA | $2.33M x 3 $2.75M x 2 $3.00M x 1 | $2.75M x 4 |
| Luke Schenn | UFA | $1.00M x 2 $1.25M x 1 | $2.75M x 3 |
| Miles Wood | UFA | $3.25M x 4 $3.00M x 3 $2.50M x 2 | $2.50M x 6 |
| David Kampf | UFA | $2.00M x 3 $1.75M x 2 | $2.40M x 4 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | RFA | $1.30M x 1 (No QO) | $2.35M x 2 |
| Connor Ingram | RFA | $1.10M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | $1.95M x 3 |
| Teddy Blueger | UFA | $2.00M x 3 $2.00M x 2 | $1.90M x 1 |
| Laurent Brossoit | UFA | $3.00M x 3 $2.50M x 2 | $1.75M x 1 |
| Ryan Reaves | UFA | $1.00M x 2 $1.25M x 1 | $1.35M x 3 |
| Kyle Burroughs | UFA | $1.10M x 2 $0.85M x 1 | $1.10M x 3 |
| Jesse Puljujarvi | RFA | $3.00M x 1 (QO) $1.10M x 1 (No QO) | $0.80M x 2 |
| Zack MacEwen | RFA | $1.00M x 2 $0.97M x 1 | $0.78M x 3 |
| Oskar Sundqvist | UFA | $3.00M x 4 $2.83M x 3 $2.50M x 2 | $0.78M x 1 |
| Patrice Bergeron | UFA | $1.50M x 1 | – |
| Tim Berni | RFA | $1.15M x 2 $0.87M x 1 | – |
| Derek Grant | UFA | $1.25M x 2 $1.25M x 1 | – |
| Jaroslav Halak | UFA | $1.25M x 1 | – |
| Phil Kessel | UFA | $1.00M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | – |
| David Krejci | UFA | $1.00M x 1 | – |
| Denis Malgin | RFA | $1.10M x 2 $0.90M x 1 | – |
| Nolan Patrick | RFA | $1.40M x 1 (QO) $1.00M x 1 (No QO) | – |
| Nick Ritchie | UFA | $1.83M x 3 $2.00M x 2 $1.75M x 1 | – |
| Jonathan Toews | UFA | $2.00M x 1 | – |
Analyzing the Results
Below, the overall percentage error is listed for UFA/RFA contracts at each length of contract, with the sample size included.
| TERM | STATUS | SAMPLE SIZE | ERROR % |
| 8 | UFA | – | – |
| 8 | RFA | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | UFA | – | – |
| 7 | RFA | 1 | 10.1% |
| 6 | UFA | 1 | 11.1% |
| 6 | RFA | – | – |
| 5 | UFA | 3 | 5.0% |
| 5 | RFA | – | – |
| 4 | UFA | 2 | 22.0% |
| 4 | RFA | 1 | 15.5% |
| 3 | UFA | 6 | 19.9% |
| 3 | RFA | 1 | 13.0% |
| *2 | UFA | 20 | 20.9% |
| *2 | RFA | 26 | 13.6% |
| *1 | UFA | 43 | 54.5% |
| *1 | RFA | 26 | 30.1% |
The table also does not include contracts in which there was no projection done for the signing term.
So over the total sample size of projections, we saw some varying levels of success.
Generally, any projections for contracts at three years or above looked pretty good when compared to the actual cap hit for a player, signed at that length. Over 18 contracts that were signed at three years or more, and also had a projection at that length, the percent error averaged out to just 12.8 percent.
So for example, if it was a $3M contract being signed, the projection would be, on average, at $3.38M (or $2.62M on the low side).
There were some projections, like for Pierre-Luc Dubois and Ivan Barbashev, that were predicted down to the dollar. Others, like Tristan Jarry and J.T. Compher, came very close as well.
The one area with contracts at three-plus years where the projections may have been a bit off came with No. 4/5 defensemen. All of Radko Gudas, Justin Holl, Connor Clifton and Niko Mikkola came in a little higher than expected, so with a bit of a trend of under-projecting in that area, it’s something to adjust for in future projections.
Obviously, it’s a lower sample size when we look at the longer-term contracts, but the accuracy is much higher. Generally, we can attribute some of that to the fact that if a long-term contract is being signed, there’s usually limited reasoning for the player or team to sign a contract significantly above or below market value, given the significant financial implications. So if we can establish market value, we can get a pretty good idea of what the contract will look like.
However, what can create a huge discrepancy when it comes to one or two-year signings is that perceived market value doesn’t always create certainty around a contract. When we look at the huge percent error with one-year contracts for UFAs, a lot of it is based around the fact that a player was not paid based on market value.
Examples at two opposite ends of the spectrum on this are Patrick Kane and Corey Perry (or moreso, the Chicago Blackhawks overall).
Kane took a $2.75M deal, when he very likely could’ve made more money. However, with Kane in his mid-30s and looking for a specific fit, he took less than he could’ve for a year to sign with a team he wanted to play for. For a player like Kane, with career earnings exceeding $100 million, the dollar figure on a one-year contract at this stage of his career won’t be the priority.
On the other hand, we saw most of the largest under-projections tied to players who signed with the Blackhawks. Two examples were Corey Perry and Nick Foligno, who by all comparables, should’ve came in between $1M and $2M on a one-year deal. However, with massive cap flexibility, Chicago was willing to completely overpay just to get these players signed, paying each $4M. On a one-year deal, there’s no long-term cap implications for Chicago, so why not do it? Obviously though, this has a huge factor in skewing the success of the short-term projections.
The other major factor that hampered the success of the short-term contracts was the designation of the <$1M x 1/2 for certain projections. With a really high success rate with that designation, if any of these contracts were actually listed with a real dollar figure attached to each projection to create a percentage error, the overall percentage error for the 1/2 year contracts would’ve come in a lot lower.
In terms of RFA vs UFA projections: again, small sample size, but RFA contract projections were more accurate at each length. If a player can’t entertain offers from multiple teams, obviously, there’s going to be less room for a significantly over-value cap hit.
Anyone is able to judge for themselves whether the accuracy is acceptable as a semi-reliable way of projecting contracts. Generally though, the higher the contract length, the more accuracy in the projections for 2023, and it’s a trend that can probably be expected to continue.
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