The Anaheim Ducks look to be heading to arbitration with their star forward.
Player Overview
After spending three years with the University of Denver after being selected by the Anaheim Ducks in 2015, Troy Terry made the jump to professional hockey in 2018. From there, he split time between the NHL and AHL for a couple of years, before joining the Ducks full-time for the shortened 2021 season.
It was in the 2021-22 year that Terry really broke out though, scoring 37 goals and 67 points in 75 games, to lead the Ducks in both categories. While his goal totals did drop this season, he still produced at a similar rate overall, managing 61 points in 70 games.
Terry is a well-rounded, top-line winger, with his biggest asset being his shot and ability to score. He has great release, power and accuracy, but also has the puck control needed to get into good spots and finish in close.
Terry is also a strong skater, who’s comfortable carrying the puck through traffic on a zone entry and can accelerate very quickly. His playmaking skills are decent as well, though aren’t on the level of his shot, puck control or skating. He’s also a good defensive winger and is reliable positionally, as well as being a hard worker who puts forth consistent efforts to retrieve a puck. While he doesn’t play with physicality, he also isn’t afraid to take a hit.
Turning just 26 years old in September, Terry is a forward the Ducks should aim to extend long-term. However, with a deal not reached, the sides look set for arbitration.
What We Know
- Terry and the Ducks are set for an arbitration hearing on Wednesday. If an extension isn’t reached beforehand, a one-year deal is expected.
- The Ducks filed for arbitration at $4.5M, while Terry filed at $8M.
Comparables
While a one-year deal is likely at this point, we’ll look at comparables to see his value at different lengths of a potential contract. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparables, we’ll generally look at wingers around Terrys age, who also signed their deal coming off their entry-level contract. The projection generated from each contract is listed in the far right column.
8 YEARS
The Ducks have the cap space available to lock up Terry long-term, and arguably, a maximum-term extension would be the best-case scenario for the Ducks.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Jeff Skinner | 27 | 2019 | 40-63 (82GP) | 30-55 (661GP) | 35-59 | $9.00M 8 years | $9.22M 8 years | 1.56 | $9.67M 8 years |
| Patrick Kane | 28 | 2015 | 34-82 (69GP) | 28-78 (515GP) | 31-80 | $10.50M 8 years | $12.28M 8 years | 1.53 | $9.49M 8 years |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 (78GP) | 28-57 (472GP) | 34-63 | $8.80M 8 years | $8.80M 8 years | 1.40 | $8.66M 8 years |
| Jakub Voracek | 27 | 2016 | 22-81 (82GP) | 19-57 (531GP) | 21-69 | $8.25M 8 years | $9.44M 8 years | 1.37 | $8.49M 8 years |
| Jamie Benn | 28 | 2017 | 41-89 (82GP) | 31-72 (508GP) | 36-81 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.58M 8 years | 1.31 | $8.12M 8 years |
| Mark Stone | 27 | 2019 | 26-82 (64GP) | 28-70 (366GP) | 27-76 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.28 | $7.94M 8 years |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 24 | 2015 | 39-78 (77GP) | 30-62 (179GP) | 35-70 | $7.50M 8 years | $8.77M 8 years | 1.25 | $7.75M 8 years |
| **Roope Hintz | 27 | 2023 | 36-77 (103GP) | 28-61 (261GP) | 31-69 | $8.45M 8 years | $8.45M 8 years | 1.22 | $7.56M 8 years |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | $7.88M 8 years | $7.88M 8 years | 1.19 | $7.40M 8 years |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 27 | 2022 | 30-69 (62GP) | 14-35 (405GP) | 22-52 | $6.13M 8 years | $6.20M 8 years | 1.19 | $7.38M 8 years |
| *David Pastrnak | 27 | 2023 | 58-112 (61GP) | 41-84 (571GP) | 50-98 | $11.25M 8 years | $11.25M 8 years | 1.15 | $7.13M 8 years |
| Nikita Kucherov | 26 | 2019 | 40-103 (80GP) | 33-75 (365GP) | 37-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.09 | $6.75M 8 years |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 25 | 2022 | 42-104 (82GP) | 29-73 (431GP) | 36-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.62M 8 years | 1.08 | $6.70M 8 years |
**Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
In terms evaluating the projections, I think right off the bat we can acknowledge Terry wouldn’t – or at least shouldn’t – get up to $9.5M per year. Is it possible? Sure, if Jeff Skinner can get the contract he did to create that projection, then anything’s possible. But there’s a reason Skinner’s contract comparable is a complete outlier, and it’s simply just because it was a massive overpayment at the time of the signing.
So we’re probably looking at a range of roughly between the $8.66M Meier projection and the $7.38M Nichushkin projection. Looking at those, there are reasons each comparable projection comes in higher or lower than others, though.
With some of the higher payment rates, both Meier and Benn had more than a 40-goal pace in their signing year, while Voracek had twice the games played of Terry before signing. As a result, there’s certainly an argument Terry shouldn’t get more than $8M per year on an eight-year deal.
Looking at the lower projections at the bottom though, Valeri Nichushkin really only had one single year of high-end NHL production before signing his deal. In his contract year, Nichushkin’s production essentially doubled where it had ever been, so you can guess that a lower sample size of high production could result in a lower payment rate. I suppose ‘Stanley Cup tax’ should’ve been a factor to offset that but I think we can assume a small sample size of high production is a factor in the lower cap hit.
Then with Tarasenko, he had a smaller sample size of games played than Terry, which could be a factor. Meanwhile, the no state tax in Vegas was very possibly a factor in keeping Stone’s number low and if that deal gets signed in Anaheim, it could’ve meant a larger deal.
One other comp I’d bring up is Andrei Svechnikov. While I’d typically stay away from using a 21-year-old’s deal as a comparison for a 26-year-old’s extension, the games played and overall production aligned pretty closely.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Andrei Svechnikov | 21 | 2021 | 22-63 (55GP) | 24-56 (205GP) | 23-60 | $7.75M 8 years | $7.94M 8 years | 1.32 | $8.20M 8 years |
So I think there are reasons Terry’s extension could come in lower than Voracek’s $8.5M cap hit, though with Stone, Tarasenko and Nichsuhkin, there are factors that could point to Terry’s deal coming in above those projections, and possibly closer to the $8 million mark.
7 YEARS
Seven years is less likely, and if Terry inks a long-term extension ahead of arbitration, there’d be no reason for him to take less term than eight years.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Artemi Panarin | 28 | 2019 | 29-90 (79GP) | 30-81 (322GP) | 30-86 | $11.64M years | $11.93M 7 years | 1.39 | $9.29M 7 years |
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 (78GP) | 27-51 (574GP) | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.36 | $9.12M 7 years |
| Milan Lucic | 28 | 2016 | 20-56 (81GP) | 20-50 (647GP) | 20-53 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.29 | $8.67M 7 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 (82GP) | 24-55 (419GP) | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $7.98M 7 years | 1.14 | $7.63M 7 years |
| Kyle Okposo | 28 | 2016 | 23-66 (79GP) | 22-57 (529GP) | 23-62 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.11 | $7.41M 7 years |
The projections would have Terry between $7.4M and $9.3M on a seven-year deal. That said, almost all of these deals were signed by a UFA, four years ago or more.
However, the one that stands out is Kevin Fiala. The winger’s deal is recent, and was also signed with the player at RFA status. Fiala’s deal would project $7.6M for Terry, which seems like a more realistic scenario, slightly below the $8M projections for eight years as a result of less term.
Another comp I’d turn to is Tage Thompson, even though he’s a center. Thompson signed with his first year of the deal beginning when he was 26 years old, with an identical points-per-82 pace in his signing year.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Tage Thompson | 26 | 2023 | 40-71 (78GP) | 21-38 (223GP) | 31-55 | $7.14M 7 years | $7.14M 7 years | 1.30 | $8.05M 7 years |
While Thomspon did have lower career production which points to Terry making more based on higher payment rate, Terry also had lower goal scoring in his signing year. As a result, it’s another indication Terry could come in a little below the $8M mark, if he ended up on a seven-year deal.
6 Years
A six-year deal is unlikely for Terry, to the point there are almost no comps for it. It would make more sense for Terry to either extend long-term, or go shorter term and re-enter free agency while still young.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 24 | 2017 | 22-64 (76GP) | 17-52 (272GP) | 20-58 | $5.90M 6 years | $6.56M 6 years | 1.13 | $7.00M 6 years |
That said, the one comp we do see is fairly accurate. Huberdeau had almost identical career games played, as well as nearly identical career production. He did sign at a slightly younger age and with more RFA years remaining, so perhaps Terry would be worth slightly more than the $7M projection, but the number certainly provides a realistic range for a six-year deal.
5 Years
A five-year deal falls into a similar scenario as a six-year deal, where it doesn’t make a ton of sense for Terry to go this route.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.00M 5 years | 1.22 | $7.56M 5 years |
| Jason Zucker | 26 | 2018 | 33-64 (82GP) | 24-43 (340GP) | 29-54 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.78M 5 years | 1.07 | $6.63M 5 years |
| Ondrej Palat | 26 | 2017 | 19-57 (75GP) | 20-58 (307GP) | 20-58 | $5.30M 5 years | $5.90M 5 years | 1.02 | $6.32M 5 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 26 | 2021 | 26-64 (49GP) | 22-48 (305GP) | 24-56 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.99 | $6.14M 5 years |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 25 | 2019 | 17-67 (48GP) | 16-48 (326GP) | 17-58 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.95 | $5.89M 5 years |
| *Jake Guentzel | 25 | 2019 | 33-73 (37GP) | 27-59 (159GP) | 30-66 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years | 0.93 | $5.77M 5 years |
Most of the projections would have Terry between $5.8M and $6.6M, but this is low. Most comps had lower production than Terry at the time of signing, and for many of them, five years was likely the maximum term they could get. While Jake Guentzel did have similar production, his lack of experience in comparison also means Terry should come in quite a bit higher.
So while Terry may not come in as high as Barbashev’s $7.5M projection (as Barbashev’s deal would’ve carried Stanley Cup tax), Terry would likely be on the upper-end of these projection at five years.
4 Years
We’ve seen four-year deals become a little more common for high-end wingers around Terry’s age, most recently with Alex DeBrincat signing in Detroit.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Patrik Laine | 24 | 2022 | 38-82 (56GP) | 35-66 (407GP) | 37-74 | $8.70M 4 years | $8.81M 4 years | 1.19 | $7.38M 4 years |
| Alex DeBrincat | 26 | 2023 | 27-66 (82GP) | 34-68 (450GP) | 31-67 | $7.88M 4 years | $7.88M 4 years | 1.18 | $7.32M 4 years |
| Adrian Kempe | 26 | 2022 | 37-57 (78GP) | 19-39 (390GP) | 28-48 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.57M 4 years | 1.16 | $7.19M 4 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 27 | 2016 | 30-62 (78GP) | 26-50 (186GP) | 28-56 | $5.19M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $6.58M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $5.83M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $5.64M 4 years |
Of the projections though, it’s hard to establish a realistic range for Terry’s deal. Arguably the best comps were Buchnevich and Mantha, who had similar experience and nearly identical production to Terry. Again though, seeing what DeBrincat just signed for, it’s difficult to say Terry would come in $2M lower.
What we’ve seen from the players with the highest projections is very high goal totals in their signing year. While Terry’s 28 goals per 82 pace was strong, it’s not at the same rate as Laine or Kempe in their signing year. Then while it matches DeBrincat’s pace, Terry also had significantly lower career goal totals than DeBrincat.
As a result, I’d expect Terry to come in a little below any of the projections above $7M. While he likely would’nt be much lower (and still well above the bottom three projections), somewhere right in the middle of this range around $7M is realistic.
3 Years
Like four-year deals, we’ve seen three-year deals become a little more popular with wingers nearing UFA status in their mid-20s. It gives them short-term security, while allowing them to re-enter free agency at a reasonable age (and with a rising cap) a few years down the line.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Andrew Mangiapane | 26 | 2023 | 35-55 (82GP) | 25-42 (260GP) | 30-49 | $5.80M 3 years | $5.87M 3 years | 1.20 | $7.43M 3 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 26 | 2021 | 38-61 (54GP) | 24-53 (454GP) | 31-57 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.66M 3 years | 1.17 | $7.25M 3 years |
| Brock Boeser | 25 | 2022 | 27-53 (71GP) | 31-65 (324GP) | 29-59 | $6.65M 3 years | $6.73M 3 years | 1.14 | $7.05M 3 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 25 | 2017 | 26-70 (81GP) | 15-51 (321GP) | 21-61 | $5.75M 3 years | $6.40M 3 years | 1.05 | $7.03M 3 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 25 | 2017 | 21-44 (63GP) | 24-49 (293GP) | 23-47 | $4.60M 3 years | $5.12M 3 years | 1.09 | $6.75M 3 years |
| Jakub Vrana | 25 | 2021 | 31-59 (50GP) | 23-47 (295GP) | 27-53 | $5.25M 3 years | $5.38M 3 years | 1.02 | $6.29M 3 years |
Of the comps, we see a very defined range between $6.3M and $7.4M. Once again though, what sets the top payment rates apart is high-end goal scoring in their signing year.
So realistically, Terry is more likely to be in the range from Vrana to Boeser, at a max of about $7M. It’s a little bit more difficult to tell exactly where he’d fall within that range, but somewhere in between these numbers, around Toffoli’s $6.75M mark may be most likely.
2 Years
There aren’t many comps for a two-year deal, but we can see a defined range of what it would likely look like.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Andre Burakovsky | 25 | 2020 | 28-64 (58GP) | 17-40 (386GP) | 23-52 | $4.90M 2 years | $5.02M 2 years | 0.97 | $5.99M 2 years |
| **Tyer Bertuzzi | 26 | 2021 | 27-56 (80GP) | 21-50 (208GP) | 24-53 | $4.75M 2 years | $4.87M 2 years | 0.92 | $5.70M 2 years |
| Victor Olofsson | 27 | 2022 | 23-56 (72GP) | 24-55 (188GP) | 24-56 | $4.75M 2 years | $4.81M 2 years | 0.86 | $5.32M 2 years |
The three recent comps would have Terry somewhere between $5.3M and $6M. That said, the two lower comps in Bertuzzi and Olofsson had quite a bit less experience than Terry at the time of signing. While Terry didn’t have the same experience as Burakovsky, he did have the highest signing year stats of the bunch, and if he were to sign a two-year deal, it would likely come in on the higher end of the range, right around $6M.
1 YEAR
If the sides don’t agree to a deal before arbitration tomorrow, we should see a one-year deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 (70GP) | 22-53 (274GP) | 25-62 | ||||
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 28 | 2023 | 13-49 (50GP) | 23-55 (326GP) | 18-52 | $5.50M 1 year | $5.50M 1 year | 1.06 | $6.56M 1 year |
| Mark Stone | 26 | 2018 | 28-88 (58GP) | 25-67 (307GP) | 27-78 | $7.35M 1 year | $7.72M 1 year | 0.99 | $6.14M 1 year |
| Sam Reinhart | 25 | 2020 | 26-59 (69GP) | 22-52 (400GP) | 24-56 | $5.10M 1 year | $5.33M 1 year | 0.95 | $5.90M 1 year |
| Kevin Fiala | 25 | 2021 | 33-66 (50GP) | 22-48 (337GP) | 28-57 | $5.10M 1 year | $5.23M 1 year | 0.92 | $5.69M 1 year |
| Jesper Bratt | 24 | 2022 | 28-79 (76GP) | 19-54 (307GP) | 24-67 | $5.45M 1 year | $5.52M 1 year | 0.82 | $5.11M 1 year |
The arbitration filings are a ways apart, with the Ducks filing at $4.5M and Terry at $8M. Splitting the difference would mean a $6.25M cap hit.
That said, based on recent comparables, that would be on the higher end of the established $5.1M to $6.6M range above. Additionally, Bertuzzi’s one-year deal came this summer when he had UFA status and more experience, so Terry likely shouldn’t be as high.
On the flip side, it’s unlikely we see him as low as Bratt’s $5.1M projection. Perhaps closer to Bratt’s $5.5M adjusted cap hit is possible, but either way, that would mean Terry fallss on the lower end of the projections.
We see a defined range between the $5.7M Fiala projection, $5.9M Reinhart projection, and the $6.1M Stone projection. As a result, it’s likely we’d see a one-year deal somewhere in this range, somewhere possibly a bit closer to the team’s filing than Terry’s filing, and below the $6.25 middle ground.
Projection
At this point, a one-year deal is the safe bet for Terry. With an impending arbitration hearing, the deal should likely come in a little below $6M, based on comparables.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 1 Year | $5.90M | $6.50M | $5.50M |
On the other hand, if the sides do agree to a deal prior to arbitration, we could see any of the following lengths.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 8 Years | $8.00M | $8.50M | $7.50M |
| 7 Years | $7.71M | $8.50M | $7.50M |
| 6 Years | $7.25M | $7.50M | $6.50M |
| 5 Years | $7.00M | $7.50M | $6.00M |
| 4 Years | $7.00M | $7.50M | $6.00M |
| 3 Years | $6.67M | $7.25M | $6.25M |
| 2 Years | $6.00M | $6.25M | $5.25M |
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment