NHL Standard career statistics

					Scoring					Goals				Assists			Shots
Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PPG	SHG	GWG	EV	PP	SH	SOG	SPCT	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	BLK	HIT	TK	GV	Awards
2012-13	23	TBL	NHL	38	7	12	19	-6	14	6	1	0	2	10	2	0	82	8.5	135	639	16:49	11	17	39.3	22	40	11	17	Calder-19
2013-14	24	TBL	NHL	82	17	24	41	8	63	14	3	0	2	19	5	0	173	9.8	302	1376	16:47	74	98	43.0	31	77	32	43
2014-15	25	TBL	NHL	71	15	23	38	8	36	13	1	1	5	21	2	0	130	11.5	225	1202	16:56	34	46	42.5	21	60	28	39
2015-16	26	TBL	NHL	81	14	26	40	14	44	11	3	0	3	22	3	1	154	9.1	278	1360	16:48	31	49	38.8	23	76	31	46
2016-17	27	TBL	NHL	81	19	17	36	-9	66	14	4	1	4	10	6	1	176	10.8	296	1458	18:00	4	8	33.3	25	99	33	43
2017-18	28	TBL	NHL	82	15	32	47	22	45	13	2	0	1	25	7	0	156	9.6	277	1353	16:30	22	33	40.0	25	82	32	32
2018-19	29	TBL	NHL	82	18	22	40	22	45	15	2	1	2	18	3	1	153	11.8	287	1220	14:52	2	8	20.0	23	88	30	22
2019-20	30	TBL	NHL	68	26	23	49	19	20	18	8	0	7	18	5	0	130	20.0	209	1219	17:56	5	14	26.3	15	59	27	26
2020-21	31	TBL	NHL	56	15	18	33	-1	37	10	5	0	1	13	4	1	121	12.4	204	1003	17:54	1	2	33.3	12	59	14	10
2021-22	32	TBL	NHL	82	25	34	59	1	66	19	6	0	2	26	8	0	164	15.2	273	1533	18:42	2	10	16.7	26	88	42	30
2022-23	33	TBL	NHL	82	27	37	64	18	45	23	3	1	5	27	9	1	143	18.9	239	1411	17:13	1	1	50.0	31	61	40	54
Career		11 yrs	NHL	805	198	268	466	96	481	156	38	4	34	209	54	5	1582	12.5	2725	13774	17:07	187	286	39.5	254	789	320	362

So while Killorn’s production will be somewhat reliant on who he’s playing with and he shouldn’t be signed exclusively for offensive production, he’s shown he’s still very capable of contributing in a top-six group at this point in his career.

Unfortunately for the Lightning though, they remain in a similar situation as recent years, where they enter the offseason without the cap space needed to retain all key players. As a result, there’s a good chance Killorn could suffer the same fate as the likes of Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Ryan McDonagh, Barclay Goodrow and others, where the Lightning just don’t have the cap space needed to sign him.

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What We Know

• Elliotte Friedman reported on 32 Thoughts that he believes the Lightning made Killorn a long-term, low AAV contract offer in an effort to try to keep him.
• Killorn previously noted he did not want to leave Tampa Bay.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Killorn’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

Typically, I try not to mix centers and wingers when comparing contracts. However, there’s a very small sample size of contracts for wingers with Killorn’s age and production, so I’ll be including some centers in the comparable contract tables as well.

With Killorn now 34 years old, we’ll be looking at comparable players who were at least 33 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31).

4 YEARS

You really don’t see deals longer than three years being handed out to players who will be 34 years old in the first year of their contract often. But it’s also not totally unprecedented.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex Killorn	34	2023	27-64 (53GP)	20-47 (991GP)	24-56
**Daniel Sedin	34	2014	25-73 (63GP)	27-69 (922GP)	26-71	$7.00M 4 years	$8.47M 4 years	1.19	$6.66M 4 years
***Henrik Sedin	34	2014	18-82 (64GP)	16-70 (956GP)	17-76	$7.00M 4 years	$8.47M 4 years	1.11	$6.24M 4 years
Alexander Steen	33	2017	21-64 (67GP)	22-53 (746GP)	22-59	$5.75M 4 years	$6.40M 4 years	1.08	$6.07M 4 years
Pascal Dupuis	34	2013	34-65 (48GP)	28-38 (798GP)	31-52	$3.75M 4 years	$4.87M 4 years	0.94	$5.24M 4 years

To me, four years is too long of a deal for Killorn. While someone may offer it, you’re almost surely going to see a decline by the end of the contract, and there aren’t a ton of comps to justify it.

That said, we do see a general range for the cap hit, between $5.25M and about $6.65M. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Sedins have the higher payment rate though, given their production was much higher than that of both Steen and Dupuis.

So between the Steen and Dupuis deals, Steen was a year younger than Killorn when signing, but that’s not a big enough age difference to really skew the results, and he was also the more recent contract.

We really shouldn’t see a four-year deal for Killorn, but it’s possible, and it would likely fall between $5.25M to $6M per year.

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3 YEARS

Three years seems like a more realistic term for Killorn’s deal, given his age.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex Killorn	34	2023	27-64 (53GP)	20-47 (991GP)	24-56
Patrick Marleau	38	2017	27-46 (82GP)	28-59 (1493GP)	28-53	$6.25M 3 years	$6.96M 3 years	1.31	$7.35M 3 years
***Paul Stastny	34	2018	22-50 (66GP)	23-66 (742GP)	23-58	$6.50M 3 years	$6.83M 3 years	1.18	$6.59M 3 years
Joel Ward	35	2015	19-34 (82GP)	15-35 (517GP)	17-35	$3.28M 3 years	$3.84M 3 years	1.10	$6.14M 3 years
***Pavel Datsyuk	36	2014	26-85 (47GP)	27-81 (779GP)	27-83	$7.50M 3 years	$9.08M 3 years	1.09	$6.13M 3 years
Patrik Elias	37	2013	24-62 (48GP)	28-70 (1090GP)	26-66	$5.50M 3 years	$7.14M 3 years	1.08	$6.06M 3 years
***Joe Pavelski	35	2019	42-70 (76GP)	30-65 (963GP)	36-68	$7.00M 3 years	$7.17M 3 years	1.05	$5.90M 3 years
Jarome Iginla	37	2014	32-64 (78GP)	35-73 (1310GP)	34-69	$5.33M 3 years	$6.45M 3 years	0.93	$5.23M 3 years
Patrick Eaves	33	2017	33-53 (79GP)	17-32 (624GP)	25-43	$3.15M 3 years	$3.51M 3 years	0.82	$4.57M 3 years

There’s a larger sample size of three-year deals being given out to players in their mid-30s rather than four-year deals, and it should likely also result in a higher cap hit.

There are a few outliers within the projections, but we can definitely establish a range for the deal. Marleau and Stastny’s deals would have Killorn up between $6.6M and $7.4M on a three-year deal, while the Iginla and Eaves contracts would have Killorn as low as $4.6M to $5.2M.

However, between Ward, Datsyuk, Elias and Pavelski, we do get a really defined range of projections, from $5.90M to $6.15M, which seems most likely.

I don’t think it would be shocking to see the cap hit come in a little higher, given Marleau and Stastny’s deals are two of the more recent contracts listed, and were signed for $6.25M and $6.50M respectively. But generally, Killorn’s cap hit on a three-year deal should be around the $6M mark.

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2 YEARS

Two years is very likely to be the shortest length we’d see for Killorn’s contract. There’s essentially no reason for him to take a one-year deal, given he’d be offered more based on age and production, and getting some term on his contract will likely be important, factoring in his age.

As a result, two years is the shortest deal we’ll project for Killorn, with comparables below:

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex Killorn	34	2023	27-64 (53GP)	20-47 (991GP)	24-56
***Tomas Plekanec	34	2016	26-60 (82GP)	22-54 (761GP)	24-57	$6.00M 2 years	$6.86M 2 years	1.20	$6.74M 2 years
***Antoine Vermette	33	2015	13-38 (82GP)	19-43 (834GP)	16-41	$3.75M 2 years	$4.39M 2 years	1.07	$5.99M 2 years
***Mike Fisher	35	2015	26-54 (59GP)	21-45 (946GP)	24-50	$4.40M 2 years	$5.15M 2 years	1.03	$5.77M 2 years
Nick Foligno	34	2021	12-33 (49GP)	17-42 (957GP)	15-38	$3.80M 2 years	$3.89M 2 years	1.02	$5.73M 2 years
Justin Williams	36	2017	25-49 (80GP)	21-52 (1080GP)	23-51	$4.50M 2 years	$5.01M 2 years	0.98	$5.50M 2 years
***Mikko Koivu	35	2018	18-59 (80GP)	17-60 (843GP)	18-60	$5.50M 2 years	$5.78M 2 years	0.96	$5.39M 2 years
Justin Williams	34	2015	18-42 (81GP)	20-52 (918GP)	19-47	$3.25M 2 years	$3.80M 2 years	0.81	$4.53M 2 years
David Perron	34	2022	33-70 (67GP)	23-56 (973GP)	28-63	$4.75M 2 years	$4.81M 2 years	0.76	$4.27M 2 years
***Mike Ribeiro	35	2015	15-62 (82GP)	19-62 (947GP)	17-62	$3.50M 2 years	$4.09M 2 years	0.66	$3.69M 2 years
**Eric Staal	35	2019	24-54 (62GP)	29-68 (1155GP)	27-61	$3.25M 2 years	$3.33M 2 years	0.55	$3.06M 2 years
Marcus Johansson	33	2023	19-47 (80GP)	16-45 (833GP)	18-46	$2.00M 2 years	$2.00M 2 years	0.43	$2.43M 2 years

While the projections for three-year deals come in mostly at $6M or above, the two-year comparables don’t necessarily point to the same range.

Of the comparables, only two of them really project Killorn reaching $6M. Some would even have him below $4M.

That said, there’s a range of four projections between $5.39M and $5.77M which appears to be by far the most realistic scenario. While players like Staal and Johansson had seen their value drop in previous years before signing the contract, Killorn arguably only built his value up over the last few seasons.

I’d say Perron is also a fairly solid comparable, still producing well at the same age and fairly recent off a Stanley Cup win. That deal would project Killorn’s contract at only about $4.3M per year. However, Williams (2017) and Foligno are two other somewhat recent deals for wingers around Killorn’s age, which would both put him right around $5.5M – $5.7M.

I think something we’ve seen though is the players who went on to sign contracts after the Lightning’s Cup wins arguably signed at a price higher than what many would’ve expected. Whether it be Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow or Ondrej Palat, all were able to command a price in the higher end of a possible range. So when we’re debating whether Killorn could fall on the higher or lower end of a certain price range, and there are strong comparables pointing in two different directions, I think the safer bet is to assume it’ll come in on the higher end of that range.

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Projection

Chances are Killorn’s deal will come in between two and four years. While he’s entering his mid-30s, his play hasn’t declined and following two recent Cup wins, he’s likely to get a raise.

Of the range, two or three years is the more likely term.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
3 Years	$6.00M	$6.33M	$5.33M
2 Years	$5.50M	$6.00M	$4.50M

While it’s less likely and probably wouldn’t age well, a four-year deal is also possible.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
4 Years	$5.50M	$6.00M	$5.00M