The Anaheim Ducks have a chance to lock up Trevor Zegras long-term.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

---

Player Overview

Only two and a half years into his NHL career, Trevor Zegras has already become a bit of a human highlight reel. From ‘The Michigan’ goal, to the over-the-net pass to Sonny Milano, Zegras is starting to established himself as one of the most skilled forwards in the league.

Zegras’ elite hands/puck control and playmaking are what set him apart, giving him a certain ‘wow’ factor to his game. Combine that with good speed and a sneaky ability to pick corners from in-close, and he has massive offensive upside.

It remains to be determined how much Zegras can round out his game, though. He has room to improve defensively, and his size can also hamper him a little bit in battles along the boards, getting taken off the puck or outmuscled by larger players.

It’s also going to be really interesting to see what Zegras’ long-term fit is within the Ducks’ lineup. Mason McTavish is all but locked into a long-term, top-six center spot and now the team looks poised to use the second-overall pick this year select another high-end center in Adam Fantilli. Anaheim experimented with Zegras on the wing a bit this year, and there’s reason to think he could be shifted there on more of a full-time basis at some point later on.

At least offensively though, the sky’s the limit for Zegras. Already averaging about 65 points on this worst team in the NHL in his early 20s, Zegras could certainly end up consistently passing point-per-game number.

---

What We Know

• There’s been little in the way of reports about what kind of term to expect for Zegras’ deal, or where negotiations stand.
• However, with significant cap space, the Ducks do have room to extend Zegras on a high-priced, maximum term contract.

---

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Zegras’ deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

8 YEARS

Committing to a high-skilled player in his early-20s with a long-term contract usually pays off.

Especially in the Ducks’ case, signing Zegras to a long-term deal now while they aren’t coming close to the cap anyways makes sense. Based on other top centers with comparable stats, an eight-year deal for Zegras remains the most likely outcome, even if it’s far from a certainty.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Trevor Zegras	22	2023	66 (81GP)	63 (180GP)	65
*Jack Hughes	21	2022	47 (59GP)	38 (120GP)	43	$8.00M 8 Years	$8.10M 8 Years	1.88	$12.09M 8 Years
*Jesperi Kotkaniemi	22	2022	32 (59GP)	30 (230GP)	31	$4.82M 8 Years	$4.88M 8 Years	1.57	$10.21M 8 Years
Jack Eichel	22	2018	77 (61GP)	65 (142GP)	71	$10.00M 8 Years	$10.56M 8 Years	1.49	$9.67M 8 Years
Tim Stutzle	21	2023	60 (79GP)	54 (132GP)	57	$8.35M 8 Years	$8.35M 8 Years	1.46	$9.52M 8 Years
Nick Suzuki	23	2022	60 (56GP)	53 (127GP)	57	$7.88M 8 Years	$7.98M 8 Years	1.40	$9.09M 8 Years
Leon Draisaitl	22	2017	77 (82GP)	59 (191GP)	68	$8.50M 8 Years	$9.46M 8 Years	1.39	$9.04M 8 Years
Connor McDavid	21	2018	100 (82GP)	96 (127GP)	98	$12.50M 8 Years	$13.13M 8 Years	1.34	$8.71M 8 Years
Josh Norris	23	2022	66 (66GP)	59 (125GP)	63	$7.95M 8 Years	$8.05M 8 Years	1.28	$8.31M 8 Years
Mark Scheifele	23	2016	70 (71GP)	52 (227GP)	61	$6.13M 8 years	$7.01M 8 Years	1.15	$7.47M 8 Years

The Hughes and Kotkaniemi deals are kind of outliers, but the contracts for Jack Eichel, Tim Stutzle, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and even Leon Draisaitl do act as pretty fair comparables in terms of production and experience at the time of signing.

Eichel and Draisaitl had a higher 82-game point pace in their signing year, and a slightly higher career P/82 pace. However, Zegras had a higher 82-game point pace than Suzuki and Stutzle both in his signing year and over his career. Zegras also edged out Norris in points/82 over his career and will be signing with the cap slightly higher.

So based on the comparable payment rates, it seems like a given that Zegras would be well over $8M per year on an eight-year deal. Really, Norris’ projection is one of only a few that would have him below $9M per year – though you do have to factor in both Eichel and Stutzle signing a year out, with their team potentially willing to pay more to lock up the player before what could’ve been a big contract year for the player.

If you’re willing to look at wingers as well, both Andrei Svechnikov and Cole Caufield would have an identical 1.31 payment rate on their recent contracts, which would put Zegras at exactly $8.5M per year on an eight-year deal. Of course, top-line centers do typically make more than wingers, but Zegras arguably fits a similar mold as a skilled, high-end offensive forward.

So if Zegras does sign an eight-year deal, the range is probably somewhere around $8.25M to $9.50M. There aren’t many comps (based on payment rate) putting him on the low end of that range, but you also really don’t see 65-point centers signing for around $9.5M either.

I think realistically, we’re probably looking at a closer range of $8.50M to $9.00M on an eight-year deal.

---

7 YEARS

There’s a big drop off between payment rate from eight-year deals to seven-year deals. That said, a lot of the comparables in the seven-year range below had a mid-point around 55-60, whereas many of the players on eight-year deals were more productive.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Trevor Zegras	22	2023	66 (81GP)	63 (180GP)	65
**Nico Hischier	21	2020	54 (75GP)	53 (157GP)	54	$7.25M 7 years	$7.43M 7 Years	1.38	$8.94M 7 Years
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	21	2014	49 (40GP)	61 (102GP)	55	$6.00M 7 Years	$7.26M 7 Years	1.32	$8.58M 7 Years
Nathan MacKinnon	21	2016	59 (72GP)	58 (218GP)	59	$6.30M 7 Years	$7.21M 7 Years	1.22	$7.94M 7 Years
Sean Monahan	22	2016	64 (81GP)	55 (237GP)	60	$6.38M 7 Years	$7.30M 7 Years	1.22	$7.93M 7 Years
*Dylan Cozens	22	2023	72 (43GP)	45 (173GP)	59	$7.10M 7 years	$7.10M 7 years	1.20	$7.82M 7 years
*Nick Schmaltz	23	2019	51 (40GP)	48 (179GP)	50	$5.85M 7 Years	$5.99M 7 Years	1.20	$7.79M 7 Years

However, there’s a really clear market for a seven-year deal for Zegras, established between the contracts for MacKinnon, Cozens, Monahan and Schmaltz. The 1.20 payment rate from the mid point between the P/82 game paces from the contract year and career set a clear market between about $7.75M and $8.00M on an eight-year deal.

What I would say though is Zegras’ production mid-point between contract year P/82 and career P/82 is around 65, versus these comparables, which are all lower. So within the range, there’s reason to believe Zegras on the higher end, around $8M.

---

6 YEARS

Six-year deals aren’t wildly common for young, top centers anymore. You’ll often either see a long-term deal at seven or eight years, a bridge deal at two or three years, or more recently, a five-year deal if the player’s goal is to get to UFA status as soon as possible. But there are some examples below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Trevor Zegras	22	2023	66 (81GP)	63 (180GP)	65
Bo Horvat	22	2017	53 (81GP)	42 (231GP)	48	$5.50M 6 Years	$6.12M 6 Years	1.28	$8.29M 6 Years
*Aleksander Barkov	21	2016	65 (38GP)	45 (163GP)	55	$5.90M 6 Years	$6.75M 6 Years	1.23	$7.98M 6 Years
Vincent Trocheck	23	2016	57 (76GP)	47 (176GP)	52	$4.75M 6 Years	$5.43M 6 Years	1.04	$6.79M 6 Years
Alexander Wennberg	23	2017	60 (80GP)	45 (217GP)	53	$4.90M 6 Years	$5.45M 6 Years	1.03	$6.69M 6 Years

Of the comparables though, the six-year deal may be the one that gives us the least insight in terms of projected salary. The Horvat and Barkov comparables predict around $8M, which is even more than most comparables for seven-year deals. On the flip side, the Trocheck and Wennberg deals project below $7M, which is less than most five-year projections.

In this case, the best idea is probably just to use the seven and five-year projections as baselines and find the six-year projection somewhere in the middle. Going off that, the six-year projection probably comes in between the two sets of outlier six-year projections, between $7.5M and $8M.

---

5 YEARS

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
*Auston Matthews	22	2019	99 (38GP)	80 (182GP)	90	$11.64M 5 Years	$11.93M 5 Years	1.33	$8.61M 5 Years
Dylan Larkin	22	2019	63 (82GP)	47 (242GP)	55	$6.10M 5 Years	$6.41M 5 Years	1.17	$7.58M 5 Years
Sebastian Aho	22	2019	83 (82GP)	67 (242GP)	75	$8.45M 5 Years	$8.66M 5 Years	1.15	$7.50M 5 Years
Matt Duchene	23	2014	75 (47GP)	59 (266GP)	67	$6.00M 5 Years	$7.26M 6 Years	1.08	$7.04M 5 Years

There aren’t a ton of potential five-year comparables, and of them, Auston Matthews’ deal was unlike anything we’ve seen from an elite, young center term-wise, while Sebastian Aho’s deal came from an offer sheet. However, you can still generally see a range of about $7M to $7.6M on a five-year deal.

Something interesting as we move forward to look at shorter deals though is that while the extension could be five years or longer, or three years or shorter, it’s extremely unlikely to come in at four years. This is because a four-year deal after an entry-level contract would often walk a player right to UFA status. As a result, there really aren’t comparables for this deal.

---

3 YEARS

So at three years, the contract would move into the territory of a typical bridge deal, where Zegras would remain an RFA at its conclusion.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82 and GP	Career P/82	Mid	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Trevor Zegras	22	2023	66 (81GP)	63 (180GP)	65
Anthony Cirelli	23	2023	46 (76GP)	44 (294GP)	45	$4.80M 3 Years	$4.92M 3 Years	1.09	$7.10M 3 Years
Elias Pettersson	23	2021	66 (26GP)	76 (165GP)	71	$7.35M 3 Years	$7.53M 3 Years	1.06	$6.89M 3 Years
Alex Galchenyuk	23	2017	59 (61GP)	50 (336GP)	55	$4.90M 3 Years	$5.46M 3 Years	0.99	$6.45M 3 Years
Mathew Barzal	23	2019	72 (68GP)	73 (234GP)	73	$7.00M 3 Years	$7.18M 3 Years	0.98	$6.39M 3 Years
Ryan Johansen	23	2014	63 (82GP)	42 (189GP)	53	$4.00M 3 Years	$4.84M 3 Years	0.91	$5.93M 3 years
Brayden Point	23	2019	95 (79 GP)	71 (229 GP)	83	$6.75M 3 Years	$6.91M 3 Years	0.83	$5.41M 3 Years

Based on recent comparables, if the sides did opt for a bridge deal, a three-year deal is the most likely outcome. We also have a pretty defined range shown above, with most comparables being fairly recent as well.

Cirelli was coming off two Stanley Cups and had quite a bit more experience when signing, which likely drove up his price – it would be unlikely to see Zegras pass $7.00M on a three-year bridge deal. In terms of establishing a payment rate, you could argue Barzal’s may be the most accurate, given he also had similar signing season P/82 to his career P/82 pace. Meanwhile, Johansen and Point both had big signing years in comparison to their career production to that point, potentially skewing the projections a bit.

The range here is very likely to be $6.00M to $7.00M. While the projections do vary quite a bit within that range, the projection from Barzal’s contract seems to be realistic, right around $6.5M per year.

---

2 YEARS

Player	First Year of Contract	Age	Season P/82	Career P/82	Mid	Contract	On $82.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Trevor Zegras	2023	22	66 (81GP)	63 (180GP)	65
Ryan O’Reilly	2014	23	66 (80GP)	45 (345GP)	56	$6.00M 2 Years	$7.17M 2 Years	1.28	$8.32M 2 Years
Pierre-Luc Dubois	2020	22	57 (70GP)	55 (234GP)	56	$5.00M 2 Years	$5.12M 2 Years	0.91	$5.95M 2 Years
Alex Galchenyuk	2015	21	47 (80GP)	44 (193GP)	46	$2.80M 2 Years	$3.27M 2 Years	0.71	$4.62M 2 Years

The less-likely bridge option would be a two-year extension, but it’s fairly uncommon for top centers. The sample size is also a bit all over the place and O’Reilly’s deal was an outlier, but the projection from Pierre-Luc Dubois’ payment rate does act as a good, recent comparable. We know a cap hit on a two-year deal would come in a little under that of a three-year deal, so the $5.95M projection does check out.

Given there’s essentially no reason for the sides to opt for a one-year deal unless negotiations soured, there are all but no real comparables for a one-year deal, so there won’t be a projection there.

---

Projection

Of the deals, seven or eight years would be the most likely long-term deal, while three years would be the most likely bridge deal. A two-year deal, five-year deal, or six-year deal is possible as well, but remains less likely.

A one or four-year deal is also extremely unlikely.

Term	Projection	High End	Low End
8 Years	$8.75M	$9.50M	$8.25M
7 Years	$8.00M	$8.95M	$7.75M
6 Years	$7.75M	$8.30M	$6.75M
5 Years	$7.40M	$7.60M	$7.00M
3 Years	$6.50M	$7.00M	$5.50M
2 Years	$5.95M	$6.50M	$5.00M