What could Gudas make in free agency, following his trip to the Stanley Cup final?
Player Overview
After being passed over in not one, but two NHL drafts, Radko Gudas was finally selected 66th overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010.
Then after spending the next few years in the AHL, Gudas got into his first NHL action during the 2012-13 season, before taking on a full-time NHL role for the 2013-14 season. However, after remaining with the Lightning until 2015, Gudas was dealt to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of a package for Braydon Coburn.
Over the next four years from there, Gudas was a mainstay on the Flyers blue line. He was playing close to 20 minutes per game in both 2015-16 and 2016-17, before taking on a slightly smaller role for his final two years with Philadelphia. He was then sent to the Washington Capitals in the summer of 2019, where he spent a single year.
| Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
| 2012-13 | 22 | TBL | NHL | 22 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5 | 62 | 374 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 87 | 5 | 17 | ||
| 2013-14 | 23 | TBL | NHL | 73 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 152 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 114 | 2.6 | 251 | 1396 | 19:08 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 273 | 13 | 36 | ||
| 2014-15 | 24 | TBL | NHL | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 3.2 | 132 | 527 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 115 | 9 | 12 | ||
| 2015-16 | 25 | PHI | NHL | 76 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 116 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 3.3 | 340 | 1508 | 19:51 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 304 | 11 | 57 | ||
| 2016-17 | 26 | PHI | NHL | 67 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 8 | 93 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 113 | 5.3 | 299 | 1293 | 19:18 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 280 | 18 | 40 | ||
| 2017-18 | 27 | PHI | NHL | 70 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 83 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 1.4 | 257 | 1197 | 17:06 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 170 | 7 | 50 | ||
| 2018-19 | 28 | PHI | NHL | 77 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 6 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 2.9 | 291 | 1376 | 17:53 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 255 | 23 | 59 | ||
| 2019-20 | 29 | WSH | NHL | 63 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 2.2 | 189 | 1054 | 16:44 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 164 | 23 | 34 | ||
| 2020-21 | 30 | FLA | NHL | 54 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 2.4 | 167 | 949 | 17:34 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 250 | 14 | 33 | ||
| 2021-22 | 31 | FLA | NHL | 77 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 27 | 105 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 3.0 | 222 | 1387 | 18:01 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 355 | 28 | 57 | ||
| 2022-23 | 32 | FLA | NHL | 72 | 2 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 1.8 | 246 | 1250 | 17:22 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 312 | 20 | 36 | ||
| 4 yrs | PHI | NHL | 290 | 17 | 56 | 73 | 11 | 355 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 541 | 3.1 | 1187 | 5374 | 18:32 | 0 | 0 | 537 | 1009 | 59 | 206 | |||
| 3 yrs | TBL | NHL | 126 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 0 | 224 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 3.4 | 445 | 2297 | 18:14 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 475 | 27 | 65 | |||
| 3 yrs | FLA | NHL | 203 | 7 | 37 | 44 | 47 | 224 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 2.4 | 635 | 3586 | 17:40 | 0 | 0 | 314 | 917 | 62 | 126 | |||
| 1 yr | WSH | NHL | 63 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 2.2 | 189 | 1054 | 16:44 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 164 | 23 | 34 | |||
| Career | 11 yrs | NHL | 682 | 33 | 131 | 164 | 73 | 843 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 126 | 4 | 1 | 1133 | 2.9 | 2456 | 12311 | 18:03 | 0 | 0 | 1155 | 2565 | 171 | 431 | |||
Hitting unrestricted free agency the following summer, Gudas signed a three-year contract with the Florida Panthers at 30 years old. Even playing mostly in a bottom-pairing role, the veteran defenseman made a major impact with the Panthers.
Gudas plays with an intensity in his game like few others and is a frontrunner for the title of most physical defenseman in the league. He ranked second in the NHL amongst defensemen this season in hits per 60, with a lot of them coming from legitimately massive collisions.
While physicality is what will always stand out about his game, Gudas is also quite strong defensively. He does a good job denying controlled entries and is great in battles.
While the defenseman should only be used in a third-pairing role, Gudas plays a style of game different from most other defenders around the league. Especially after he had eyes on him during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup final, Gudas should be a free agent who gets quite a bit of interest.
What We Know
- Gudas told The Hockey News earlier this year that he’d like to finish his career with the Panthers.
- The Panthers were also reportedly interested in keeping Gudas.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at possible contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.
Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
4 YEARS
It’s very unlikely that we see Gudas get a four-year deal in free agency. That said, it’s always possible.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Radko Gudas | 33 | 2023 | 19 (72GP) | 20 (682GP) | 17:22 | 18:03 | ||
| Jeff Petry | 34 | 2021 | 46 (71GP) | 31 (680GP) | 23:39 | 22:12 | $6.25M 4 years | $6.40M 4 years |
| Mattias Ekholm | 32 | 2022 | 33 (76GP) | 31 (662GP) | 23:29 | 21:49 | $6.25M 4 years | $6.33M 4 years |
| *Jake Muzzin | 31 | 2020 | 35 (52GP) | 36 (578GP) | 21:36 | 21:15 | $5.63M 4 years | $5.77M 4 years |
| Ben Chiarot | 31 | 2022 | 29 (76GP) | 20 (489GP) | 22:51 | 18:38 | $4.75M 4 years | $4.81M 4 years |
| Chris Tanev | 31 | 2020 | 24 (69GP) | 19 (514GP) | 19:32 | 19:44 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.61M 4 years |
| Josh Manson | 31 | 2022 | 20 (67GP) | 21 (475GP) | 18:59 | 19:44 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.55M 4 years |
| Nick Leddy | 31 | 2022 | 26 (75GP) | 35 (851GP) | 21:25 | 20:37 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.05M 4 years |
| David Savard | 31 | 2021 | 9 (54GP) | 22 (611GP) | 19:51 | 20:26 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.59M 4 years |
As I noted in the Brian Dumoulin contract projection article, 31 years old is pretty much the cut off for a defender getting a four-year deal, unless they play a pretty significant role for their team, like Jeff Petry and Mattias Ekholm.
Even looking at production, only David Savard had a lower 82-game points pace in his signing year than Gudas. That said, Gudas’ ice time just isn’t even kind of similar to most comparables.
The only way Gudas gets a four-year deal is likely if he takes a very reduced cap hit, lower than projections for deals at shorter lengths.
3 YEARS
Three years is much more likely for Gudas’ next deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Season TOI/GP | Career TOI/GP | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Radko Gudas | 33 | 2023 | 19 (72GP) | 20 (682GP) | 17:22 | 18:03 | ||
| Anton Stralman | 33 | 2019 | 30 (47GP) | 26 (749GP) | 20:31 | 19:49 | $5.50M 3 years | $5.63M 3 years |
| Alec Martinez | 34 | 2021 | 50 (53GP) | 30 (660GP) | 22:34 | 19:41 | $5.25M 3 years | $5.38M 3 years |
| Francois Beauchemin | 35 | 2015 | 29 (64GP) | 27 (673GP) | 22:45 | 24:16 | $4.50M 3 years | $5.26M 3 years |
| Tyson Barrie | 31 | 2021 | 70 (56GP) | 53 (610GP) | 21:24 | 21:45 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years |
| *Nick Jensen | 33 | 2023 | 32 (62GP) | 20 (469GP) | 20:58 | 18:30 | $4.05M 3 years | $4.05M 3 years |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 31 | 2020 | 40 (70GP) | 46 (679GP) | 18:54 | 20:35 | $3.90M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years |
| Trevor Daley | 34 | 2017 | 28 (56GP) | 25 (894GP) | 20:23 | 20:40 | $3.17M 3 years | $3.53M 3 years |
| *Trevor van Riemsdyk | 31 | 2023 | 26 (69GP) | 17 (523GP) | 19:03 | 17:23 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.00M 3 years |
| *Brayden McNabb | 31 | 2022 | 16 (45GP) | 16 (552GP) | 19:29 | 18:37 | $2.85M 3 years | $2.88M 3 years |
| Jan Rutta | 32 | 2023 | 19 (76GP) | 21 (238GP) | 16:23 | 16:47 | $2.75M 3 years | $2.78M 3 years |
To start, Gudas’ contract shouldn’t be close to a lot of these deals. Everyone from Anton Stralman to Kevin Shattenkirk all had both better production and more ice time, putting Gudas’ projection well under $4M per year.
That said, you can get a bit more of a sense of what it could look like from the contracts of Daley, van Riemsdyk, McNabb and Rutta.
Daley may have been a year older at the time of signing, but he also had higher production and more ice time than Gudas. On the flip side though, Gudas is very comparable to Jan Rutta, with nearly identical production but more ice time. He also had very similar average ice time over his career to van Riemsdyk and McNabb, with slightly better production over his career.
As a result, it seems likely that Gudas could potentially receive a slight raise on a three-year deal from his current $2.5M contract, this time up around $3M instead.
2 YEARS
A two-year deal would be just as likely for Gudas as a three-year deal. However, it’s also the shortest length we’re likely to see, assuming Gudas intends to play for at least two more seasons.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Radko Gudas | 33 | 2023 | 19 (72GP) | 20 (682GP) | 17:22 | 18:03 | ||
| Kevin Bieksa | 35 | 2016 | 19 (60GP) | 33 (597GP) | 20:50 | 22:25 | $4.00M 2 years | $4.58M 2 years |
| Johnny Oduya | 34 | 2015 | 11 (76GP) | 19 (664GP) | 20:17 | 20:11 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.39M 2 years |
| Dan Hamhuis | 34 | 2016 | 18 (58GP) | 28 (872GP) | 21:25 | 22:27 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.29M 2 years |
| Travis Hamonic | 31 | 2021 | 22 (38GP) | 24 (675GP) | 19:22 | 21:58 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
| Justin Schultz | 32 | 2022 | 25 (74GP) | 36 (602GP) | 16:55 | 20:17 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.04M 2 years |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 31 | 2021 | 7 (48GP) | 20 (725GP) | 19:10 | 19:54 | $2.25M 2 years | $2.31M 2 years |
| Nick Holden | 31 | 2018 | 19 (73GP) | 25 GP (374GP) | 19:00 | 20:01 | $2.00M 2 years | $2.10M 2 years |
Based on the two-year comparables, it is actually fairly difficult to project a specific cap hit for Gudas’ deal. There isn’t a massive gap between the deals at a $4M adjusted cap hit and above, or the ones around a $3M adjusted cap hit and below.
The one thing that does stand out though is that Bieksa, Oduya and Hamhuis (all above a $4M adjusted cap hit) is that each player averaged more than 20 minutes per game in both their signing year and contract year. Additionally, those deals were all signed between 2015 and 2016, while the four cheaper deals were signed more recently.
Within the $2M to $3M range though, it’s a bit of a toss up. You certainly could project Gudas’ deal to be around Holden’s $2M cap hit, but it’s difficult to see a two-year deal coming in cheaper than a three-year deal for a player at Gudas’ age.
So while the range is likely between $2M and $3M, I’d still have him up around that $3M mark, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see it come in lower.
Projection
A two or three-year deal seems to be by far the most likely term for Gudas’ next contract.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 Years | $3.00M | $3.50M | $2.67M |
| 2 Years | $3.00M | $3.00M | $2.00M |
Any longer than a three-year deal would be very unlikely, but a four-year deal at a reduced cap hit is always possible.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 4 Years | $2.50M | $3.25M | $2.25M |
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