NHL Standard career statistics

					Scoring					Goals				Assists			Shots
Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PPG	SHG	GWG	EV	PP	SH	SOG	SPCT	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	BLK	HIT	TK	GV	Awards
2017-18	19	CBJ	NHL	82	20	28	48	8	49	14	6	0	4	19	9	0	165	12.1	274	1364	16:38	461	591	43.8	46	127	38	29	Calder-8
2018-19	20	CBJ	NHL	82	27	34	61	16	64	25	2	0	5	27	7	0	174	15.5	309	1453	17:43	455	592	43.5	52	115	45	54
2019-20	21	CBJ	NHL	70	18	31	49	-2	49	17	1	0	4	22	9	0	158	11.4	273	1255	17:56	359	446	44.6	50	85	27	46
2020-21	22	TOT	NHL	46	9	12	21	-8	38	8	1	0	3	7	5	0	76	11.8		691	15:02	166	216	43.5	26	59	18	10
2020-21	22	CBJ	NHL	5	1	0	1	-2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	7	14.3	13	73	14:31	33	28	54.1	3	2	1	0
2020-21	22	WPG	NHL	41	8	12	20	-6	36	7	1	0	2	7	5	0	69	11.6	118	619	15:06	133	188	41.4	23	57	17	10
2021-22	23	WPG	NHL	81	28	32	60	-6	106	13	15	0	6	28	4	0	233	12.0	393	1533	18:55	532	603	46.9	43	112	22	42
2022-23	24	WPG	NHL	73	27	36	63	5	77	16	11	0	1	24	12	0	205	13.2	380	1347	18:27	483	505	48.9	47	71	40	47
4 yrs		CBJ	NHL	239	66	93	159	20	164	57	9	0	14	68	25	0	504	13.1	869	4145	17:20	1308	1657	44.1	151	329	111	129
3 yrs		WPG	NHL	195	63	80	143	-7	219	36	27	0	9	59	21	0	507	12.4	891	3498	17:56	1148	1296	47.0	113	240	79	99
Career		6 yrs	NHL	434	129	173	302	13	383	93	36	0	23	127	46	0	1011	12.8	1760	7643	17:37	2456	2953	45.4	264	569	190	228

However, it’s been reported that Dubois isn’t interested in signing another deal with the Jets: not even a one-year contract to get to unrestricted free agency in 2024. As a result, it seems as though Dubois is close to forcing his way out of his second team in just his six years in the league.

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What We Know

• Dubois is reportedly seeking $9M per year on an eight-year contract.
• Dubois has been heavily linked to the Montreal Canadiens ever since his agent Pat Brisson stated last summer that Dubois had interest in playing with the Canadiens.
• It’s been reported that the Canadiens are also interested in Dubois. As a result, the Canadiens remain the clear frontrunner to land the center.
• A sign-and-trade is reportedly a possibility, in order to allow Dubois to add an eighth year to his deal.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at a possible contract for Dubois. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

For the comparables, we’ll try to stick to centers around Dubois’ age who had similar production at the time of signing their contract.

8 YEARS

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit	Payment Rate	Projection
Pierre-Luc Dubois	25	2023	30-71 (73GP)	24-57 (434GP)	27-64
Jonathan Toews	27	2015	30-73 (76GP)	33-75 (484GP)	32-74	$10.50M 8 years	$12.28M 8 years	1.66	$10.62M 8 years
Ryan Johansen	25	2017	14-61 (82GP)	19-55 (433GP)	17-58	$8.00M 8 years	$8.91M 8 years	1.54	$9.83M 8 years
Evgeny Kuznetsov	25	2017	19-59 (82GP)	17-57 (261GP)	18-58	$7.80M 8 years	$8.68M 8 years	1.50	$9.58M 8 years
Nick Suzuki	23	2022	22-60 (56GP)	18-53 (127GP)	20-57	$7.88M 8 years	$7.98M 8 years	1.40	$8.95M 8 years
Tyler Seguin	27	2019	40-78 (82GP)	2-70 (590GP)	36-74	$9.85M 8 years	$10.09M 8 years	1.36	$8.73M 8 years
Brayden Point	26	2022	34-70 (56GP)	32-72 (351GP)	33-71	$9.50M 8 years	$9.62M 8 years	1.35	$8.67M 8 years
Mathew Barzal	26	2022	17-66 (73GP)	21-70 (362GP)	19-68	$9.15M 8 years	$9.15M 8 years	1.35	$8.61M 8 years
Claude Giroux	26	2014	22-82 (48GP)	22-72 (333GP)	22-77	$8.28M 8 years	$10.02M 8 years	1.30	$8.33M 8 years
Steven Stamkos	26	2016	38-68 (77GP)	45-81 (569GP)	42-75	$8.50M 8 years	$9.72M 8 years	1.30	$8.30M 8 years
Josh Norris	23	2022	43-68 (66GP)	34-59 (125GP)	39-64	$7.95M 8 Years	$8.05M 8 Years	1.26	$8.05M 8 years
*Dylan Larkin	27	2023	31-79 (59GP)	25-60 (563GP)	28-70	$8.70M 8 years	$8.70M 8 years	1.24	$7.95M 8 years
William Karlsson	26	2019	24-56 (82GP)	20-43 (347GP)	22-50	$5.90M 8 years	$6.04M 8 years	1.21	$7.73M 8 years
Aleksander Barkov	27	2022	43-95 (50GP)	28-72 (529GP)	36-84	$10.00M 8 years	$10.12M 8 years	1.20	$7.71M 8 years
Mark Scheifele	23	2016	33-70 (71GP)	21-52 (227GP)	27-61	$6.13M 8 years	$7.01M 8 years	1.15	$7.35M 8 years

Of the 14 comparables listed for an eight-year deal, 11 of them would project Dubois to hit at least $7.95M. At the same time though, 11 of the 14 projections would also put Dubois at $8.95M or below. So while Dubois may want a $9M cap hit, the reality is he’s very likely to fall somewhere between $8M and $9M per year.

Looking at the lower end of the projections though, Josh Norris had very similar stats before signing his deal, which would project Dubois’ contract at $8.05M. However, Norris also had significantly less NHL experience than Dubois at the time of signing, meaning there was arguably more risk in the deal, given the minimal sample size of high-end production. As a result, we can assume Dubois should be above Norris’ $8.05M projection and at least closer to the Giroux and Stamkos projections around $8.3M.

Perhaps two of the better comparables would be Brayden Point and Mathew Barzal, who both singed their extensions recently and had relatively similar experience up the point of signing. The comparables would project Dubois at $8.67M and $8.61M respectively.

However, something else visible in the table is that the players with the biggest gap between their 82-game points pace during their signing year versus over their career generally have the lowest payment rates of the group. From Scheifele at the bottom, all the way up to Giroux, the bottom seven players listed all had at least a 9-point gap between signing year points per 82 and career points per 82. Then look to the top seven players listed, from Toews down to Barzal, and not a single one of them has a gap as large as 9 points between their signing year and career production.

So we can take from this that a larger sample size of sustained production is going to equal a higher payment rate. However, Dubois is coming off somewhat of an outlier season, where he had an 82-game points pace of 71 in his signing year and 57 points per 82 over his career – a 14-point gap.

So we can bet that Dubois should probably be on the lower end of the range of projections. While anywhere between $8M and $9M is realistic, there’s a good shot Dubois’ range should somewhere between $8.25M and $8.50M, if he takes an eight-year deal.

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5-7 YEARS

Chances are, Dubois’ long-term deal would be for eight years with a sign-and-trade, rather than anywhere from five to seven years. That said, there are a few comparables for a possible deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit	Payment Rate	Projection
Pierre-Luc Dubois	25	2023	30-71 (73GP)	24-57 (434GP)	27-64
Tage Thompson	26	2023	40-71 (78GP)	21-38 (223GP)	31-55	$7.14M 7 years	$7.14M 7 years	1.30	$8.31M 7 years
Kevin Hayes	27	2019	22-64 (71GP)	20-49 (381GP)	21-57	$7.14M 7 years	$7.32M 7 years	1.28	$8.21M 7 years
Derek Stepan	25	2015	19-66 (68GP)	20-57 (362GP)	20-62	$6.50M 6 years	$7.60M 6 years	1.23	$7.85M 6 years
Logan Couture	25	2014	36-63 (48GP)	31-59 (232GP)	34-61	$6.00M 5 years	$7.26M 5 years	1.19	$7.62M 5 years
Matt Duchene	23	2014	30-75 (47GP)	25-59 (266GP)	28-67	$6.00M 5 years	$7.26M 5 years	1.08	$6.93M 5 years

Again, it’s unlikely Dubois would end up taking a shorter deal instead of eight years. But the projections do create a clear range for what a deal could look like at five years, six years or seven years, with a slightly lower cap hit.

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1/2 YEARS

While there aren’t a ton of examples for a three or four-year deal for a player of Dubois’ age and production, another scenario could be Dubois taking a short-term deal. There are a couple examples of possible two year comparables.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit	Payment Rate	Projection
Pierre-Luc Dubois	25	2023	30-71 (73GP)	24-57 (434GP)	27-64
Max Domi	25	2020	20-51 (71GP)	18-55 (371GP)	19-53	$5.30M 2 years	$5.43M 2 years	1.02	$6.56M 2 years
Ryan Strome	27	2020	21-69 (70GP)	16-42 (491GP)	19-56	$4.50M 2 years	$4.61M 2 years	0.82	$5.26M 2 years

Given Dubois is coming off a one-year deal at $6M and just had his best offensive season yet, we know any two-year deal should be at least up around the projection the Domi contract at more than $6.5M, rather than the number Strome’s deal would project.

More likely though, if Dubois wasn’t dealt to a team he was willing to sign with long-term, we could see a one-year deal that would walk the forward to free agency. It was reported last year that Dubois was intending to test free agency in 2024 as a UFA, and this would allow him to do so.

He’d have a qualifying offer of $6M to meet, but there’s a good chance the number on a one-year deal would come in even higher, with arbitration being another factor as well.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit	Payment Rate	Projection
Pierre-Luc Dubois	25	2023	30-71 (73GP)	24-57 (434GP)	27-64
Kevin Hayes	26	2018	27-47 (76GP)	19-46 (310GP)	23-47	$5.18M 1 year	$5.44M 1 year	1.16	$7.41M 1 year
Pierre- Luc Dubois	25	2022	28-61 (81GP)	23-53 (361GP)	26-57	$6.00M 1 year	$6.07M 1 year	1.07	$6.82M 1 year
William Karlsson	25	2018	43-78 (82GP)	19-40 (265GP)	31-59	$5.25M 1 year	$5.51M 1 year	0.93	$5.98M 1 year
Andrew Copp	27	2021	22-58 (55GP)	12-30 (411GP)	17-44	$3.64M 1 year	$3.73M 1 year	0.85	$5.43M 1 year

The comparables don’t give the best range, with the projection from Hayes’ deal coming in too high, and the Karlsson and Copp projections coming in too low.

That said, perhaps the best predictor of future payment rate is past payment rate. So looking at what Dubois’ got on his last deal, it’s possible he could end up in the range of $6.8M on a one-year deal given his increased production this year, like the projection from his last contract would suggest. While it seems a little high, we know it should be well over the $6M mark, and somewhere around $6.5M could be pretty realistic.

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Projection

If Dubois is dealt to a location he’s willing to sign long-term, and eight-year deal is by far the most likely term. If no sign-and-trade is arranged, a seven-year deal is also possible.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
8 Years	$8.50M	$9.00M	$8.00M
7 Years	$8.29M	$9.00M	$8.00M

While other lengths for a deal are unlikely, if he ends up with a team where he’ll only take a one-year deal before heading to free agency in 2024, we can expect it to be somewhere in the $6M to $7M range, likely a moderate raise to come in right around $6.5M.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
1 Year	$6.50M	$7.00M	$6.00M