After Vilardi’s breakout year, what is his next contract likely to look like?
Player Overview
Since being selected 11th overall by the Los Angeles Kings in 2017, it hasn’t necessarily been smooth sailing for Gabriel Vilardi.
He dealt with massive injury trouble in the years that followed his selection, only getting into four games through the entire 2018-19 season. After another fairly short year in 2019-20, Vilardi did make the full-time jump to the NHL in the 2020-21 season.
However, Vilardi’s rookie year in the NHL was only alright, and he posted 10 goals and 23 points in 54 games, a pace of 15 goals and 35 points in 82 games. He ended up heading back down to the AHL for most of the 2021-22 season afterwards, and there was certainly reason to be worried about his long-term future with the Kings.
However, Vilardi transitioned to the wing and this year, he won an NHL spot back out of training camp. He was red hot to start the year, and ended up finishing the season with 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games, a pace of 30 goals and 53 points per 82.
Following his breakout year, Vilardi looks to have solidified himself a spot with the Kings for the forseeable future. While he doesn’t have much speed, hit shot is excellent and he’s continuing to round out his game.
| Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
| 2019-20 | 20 | LAK | NHL | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 15.8 | 29 | 129 | 12:51 | 49 | 43 | 53.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2020-21 | 21 | LAK | NHL | 54 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -8 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 65 | 15.4 | 116 | 797 | 14:45 | 291 | 343 | 45.9 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 14 | |
| 2021-22 | 22 | LAK | NHL | 25 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 12.2 | 60 | 338 | 13:31 | 60 | 71 | 45.8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| 2022-23 | 23 | LAK | NHL | 63 | 23 | 18 | 41 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 122 | 18.9 | 207 | 983 | 15:36 | 52 | 61 | 46.0 | 33 | 41 | 23 | 16 | |
| Career | 4 yrs | NHL | 152 | 41 | 37 | 78 | -3 | 36 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 247 | 16.6 | 412 | 2246 | 14:47 | 452 | 518 | 46.6 | 65 | 66 | 43 | 35 | ||
What We Know
- There’s been little in the way of reports about what kind of term to expect for Vilardi’s deal, or where negotiations stand.
- However, the Kings still have a lack of cap space and will need to sign a starting goalie. As a result, it’s likely we see Vilardi take a cheaper bridge deal than a long-term extension.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Vilardi’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparables, we’ll try to stick to wingers around Vilardi’s age with roughly 100-300 career games played and comparable production at the time of signing their contract.
Generally, players with Vilardi’s stats won’t typically get a seven or eight-year deal. So we’ll start with the longest projected length below, at six years.
6 YEARS
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63GP) | 22-42 (152GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Brandon Saad | 23 | 2015 | 23-52 (82GP) | 21-50 (208GP) | 22-51 | $6.00M 6 years | $7.02M 6 years | 1.38 | $6.60M 6 years |
| Travis Konecny | 22 | 2019 | 24-49 (82GP) | 21-44 (233GP) | 23-47 | $5.50M 6 years | $5.63M 6 years | 1.20 | $5.75M 6 years |
| Jonathan Drouin | 22 | 2017 | 24-60 (73GP) | 15-48 (164GP) | 20-54 | $5.50M 6 years | $6.12M 6 years | 1.13 | $5.44M 6 years |
| Drake Batherson | 24 | 2021 | 25-50 (56GP) | 19-44 (99GP) | 22-47 | $4.98M 6 years | $5.10M 6 years | 1.09 | $5.23M 6 years |
| Joel Farabee | 22 | 2022 | 30-57 (55GP) | 21-45 (107GP) | 26-51 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.06M 6 years | 0.99 | $4.76M 6 years |
| Rickard Rakell | 23 | 2016 | 23-49 (72GP) | 14-39 (165GP) | 19-44 | $3.80M 6 years | $4.35M 6 years | 0.99 | $4.74M 6 years |
Take out the Saad contract and we can see a pretty established range of projections between $4.75M and $5.75M for Vilardi on a six-year deal.
The most recent comparables in Batherson and Farabee do put the likely projection on the lower end of that range, though both players did have less experience than Vilardi. Still, Konecny had played over 230 games by the time he signed his deal, while Drouin had quite a bit higher of a points-per-82 pace than Vilardi over both his signing season and career.
With cap hits for both Batherson and Farabee coming in at $5M, right around that mark would be most likely, or perhaps a bit above. to factor in increased experience and a slightly higher cap.
5 YEARS
With a slightly shorter deal at five years, we also see a pretty defined projection range.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63 GP) | 22-42 (152 GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Jaden Schwartz | 24 | 2016 | 20-55 (33GP) | 24-54 (240GP) | 22-55 | $5.35M 5 years | $6.12M 5 years | 1.11 | $5.34M 5 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 26 | 2021 | 26-64 (49GP) | 22-48 (305GP) | 24-56 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.99 | $4.74M 5 years |
| *Jake Guentzel | 25 | 2019 | 33-73 (37GP) | 27-59 (159GP) | 30-66 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years | 0.93 | $4.47M 5 years |
| Conor Garland | 25 | 2021 | 20-65 (49GP) | 24-48 (164GP) | 22-57 | $4.95M 5 years | $5.07M 5 years | 0.89 | $4.27M 5 years |
We’d be looking at a range of about $4.25M to $5.35M, with the actual cap hit probably falling somewhere in between. Both Schwartz and Bjorkstrand had more experience at the time of signing their respective deals, and all players had better production than Vilardi, so it’s unlikely we’d see the cap hit on a five-year deal come in above $5M.
4 YEARS
Things are bit less clear when it comes to a four-year deal. A few comparables would put him even higher than many comparables for a five-year deal, while others are much lower.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63 GP) | 22-42 (152GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Kevin Labanc | 25 | 2020 | 16-39 (70 GP) | 14-43 (284GP) | 15-41 | $4.73M 4 years | $4.85M 4 years | 1.18 | $5.68M 4 years |
| Tanner Pearson | 25 | 2017 | 25-41 (80GP) | 20-37 (226GP) | 23-39 | $3.75M 4 years | $4.18 4 years | 1.07 | $5.14M 4 years |
| Timo Meier | 23 | 2019 | 32-69 (78GP) | 23-46 (193GP) | 28-58 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.15M 4 years | 1.06 | $5.09M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $4.52M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2021 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.93 | $4.46M 4 years |
| Bryan Rust | 26 | 2018 | 15-45 (69GP) | 15-36 (181GP) | 15-41 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.68M 4 years | 0.90 | $4.31M 4 years |
There aren’t any really strong comps here, but if we’re determining a range, it would be less than that of a five-year deal. That logic would make the Buchnevich, Mantha and Rust contracts as the better comps, putting the range from about $4.50M and below on a four-year deal. Again, there’s much less of a clear range than projections at other terms, but it does provide somewhat of an idea.
3 YEARS
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63GP) | 22-42 (152GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Jakub Vrana | 25 | 2021 | 31-59 (50GP) | 23-47 (295GP) | 27-53 | $5.25M 3 years | $5.38M 3 years | 1.01 | $4.87M 3 years |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 24 | 2021 | 26-49 (47GP) | 20-38 (333GP) | 23-44 | $4.15M 3 years | $4.25M 3 years | 0.97 | $4.64M 3 years |
| Connor Brown | 26 | 2020 | 18-50 (71GP) | 15-36 (324GP) | 17-43 | $3.60M 3 years | $3.69M 3 years | 0.86 | $4.12M 3 years |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 23 | 2019 | 21-46 (78GP) | 17-33 (133GP) | 19-40 | $3.20M 3 years | $3.28M 3 years | 0.82 | $3.94M 3 years |
| Roope Hintz | 24 | 2020 | 26-45 (60GP) | 19-38 (118GP) | 23-42 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.23M 3 years | 0.77 | $3.69M 3 years |
| Ondrej Kase | 23 | 2018 | 25-47 (66GP) | 17-37 (119GP) | 21-42 | $2.60M 3 years | $2.73M 3 years | 0.65 | $3.12M 3 years |
We see a bit of a wide range here too, but there is some distinction between the projections. Vrana, Beauvillier and Brown were all up around 300 career games at the time of signing and have the highest payment rates. Meanwhile, Kapanen, Hintz and Kase were only just over 100 career games, and those three had the lowest payment rates.
This isn’t to completely discount the higher projections, but when guessing where Vilardi may land within the range of projections on a three-year deal, it’s probably on the lower end. Somewhere right around $4M or just below seems fairly realistic.
2 YEARS
Once we get down to two years, we can find some pretty close comparables that give us a solid idea of what Vilardi’s contract would look like.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63 GP) | 22-42 (152 GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Jakub Vrana | 23 | 2019 | 24-47 (82 GP) | 19-37 (176 GP) | 22-42 | $3.35M 2 years | $3.43M 2 years | 0.82 | $3.94M 2 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 23 | 2018 | 25-50 (82 GP) | 21-46 (249 GP) | 23-48 | $3.65M 2 years | $3.83M 2 years | 0.80 | $3.83M 2 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 24 | 2018 | 25-49 (80GP) | 24-48 (150GP) | 25-49 | $3.30M 2 years | $3.47M 2 years | 0.71 | $3.40M 2 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 24 | 2019 | 27-49 (64GP) | 20-46 (179GP) | 24-48 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.33M 2 years | 0.69 | $3.33M 2 years |
| Martin Necas | 23 | 2022 | 15-42 (78 GP) | 18-48 (203 GP) | 17-45 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.04M 2 years | 0.68 | $3.24M 2 years |
We’ve got a pretty clearly got a range of $3.25M to $3.95M. As to where he lands within that range is a bit of a guess, given there aren’t a ton of quick identifiers between the players listed. That said, $3.50M does seem to be the general middle point, so we could see it a little higher or lower, but it won’t be far off either way.
1 YEAR
Generally, players wouldn’t take a one-year bridge deal, but if Vilardi opted for this, it should come in even below the two-year projected range.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 24 | 2023 | 30-53 (63 GP) | 22-42 (152 GP) | 26-48 | ||||
| Jesper Bratt | 24 | 2022 | 28-79 (76GP) | 19-54 (307GP) | 24-67 | $5.45M 1 year | $5.52M 1 year | 0.92 | $3.94M 1 year |
| Jesse Puljujarvi | 24 | 2022 | 18-45 (65GP) | 15-31 (259GP) | 17-38 | $3.00M 1 year | $3.04M 1 year | 0.80 | $3.84M 1 year |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 25 | 2020 | 24-55 (71GP) | 20-49 (199GP) | 22-52 | $3.50M 1 year | $3.59M 1 year | 0.69 | $3.31M 1 year |
| Anthony Duclair | 24 | 2019 | 21-37 (74GP) | 16-35 (287GP) | 19-36 | $1.65M 1 year | $1.69M | 0.48 | $2.32M 1 year |
While the Bratt and Puljujarvi projections have the cap hit quite high, nearly around $4M, the $3.30M Bertuzzi projection may act as the more realistic comparable, based on comparable games played and production.
Realistically, trying to figure out a one-year deal is very difficult compared to others. There’s a range of reasons that a deal could be one year instead of longer, and it can inevitably affect the price tag.
The odds of Vilardi ending up with a one-year deal are low, but it should be below the $3.50M mark, if it did happen.
Projection
It’s a little bit tough to predict what kind of length Vilardi’s contract may be, but based on the Kings’ cap situation, I’d bet on shorter as opposed to longer..
A two-year deal is probably most likely, with six years as least likely, and all deals in between following suit.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 2 Years | $3.50M | $3.95M | $3.25M |
| 3 Years | $4.00M | $4.87M | $3.65M |
| 4 Years | $4.40M | $5.14M | $4.31M |
| 5 Years | $4.70M | $5.35M | $4.25M |
| 6 Years | $5.17M | $5.75M | $4.75M |
Alternatively, while a one-year deal is unlikely, the projection for it will be $3.00M.
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