After establishing himself with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Bunting is set for a raise.
Player Overview
A late bloomer, it took a long time before Michael Bunting got his shot in the NHL. After getting into just five games with the Arizona Coyotes in the 2018-19 season, Bunting ended up splitting the shortened 2021 season between the NHL and AHL. He posted really strong numbers in both leagues, with and 10 goals and 13 points in 21 NHL games, along with seven goals and 19 points in 16 games with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners.
| Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
| 2018-19 | 23 | ARI | NHL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20.0 | 11 | 48 | 9:33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2020-21 | 25 | ARI | NHL | 21 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -1 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 26.3 | 62 | 351 | 16:42 | 7 | 5 | 58.3 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 5 | |
| 2021-22 | 26 | TOR | NHL | 79 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 27 | 80 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 175 | 13.1 | 296 | 1228 | 15:33 | 8 | 8 | 50.0 | 21 | 85 | 36 | 23 | AR-1,Calder-3 |
| 2022-23 | 27 | TOR | NHL | 82 | 23 | 26 | 49 | 21 | 103 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 13.2 | 298 | 1295 | 15:48 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 18 | 85 | 49 | 38 | |
| 2 yrs | ARI | NHL | 26 | 11 | 3 | 14 | -1 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 25.6 | 73 | 398 | 15:19 | 7 | 5 | 58.3 | 2 | 34 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 2 yrs | TOR | NHL | 161 | 46 | 66 | 112 | 48 | 183 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 60 | 6 | 0 | 349 | 13.2 | 594 | 2523 | 15:40 | 9 | 9 | 50.0 | 39 | 170 | 85 | 61 | ||
| Career | 4 yrs | NHL | 187 | 57 | 69 | 126 | 47 | 197 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 392 | 14.5 | 667 | 2922 | 15:37 | 16 | 14 | 53.3 | 41 | 204 | 94 | 66 | ||
Despite the small sample size of play, Bunting earned a two-year deal from the Toronto Maple Leafs in the following summer, and that’s where things took off for him.
In Bunting’s first season with Toronto, the winger managed 63 points in 79 games, resulting in a third-place Calder Trophy finish.
While Bunting did see his production slide a bit this past season, he was still the top producing forward on the team outside of the ‘Core Four’. Notably, Bunting’s game also comes with a certain intensity and physical presence which, along with his production, makes him a valuable winger on the market.
As a result though, he’s likely priced himself out of Toronto.
What We Know
- It was previously reported by Chris Johnston that Bunting is unlikely to re-sign with the Leafs.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Bunting’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparable contracts, we’ll be looking at wingers who were between 26 and 30 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
7 YEARS
To start, there aren’t really any comparables to project Bunting at seven years.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate |
| Michael Bunting | 28 | 2023 | 23-49 (82GP) | 25-55 (187GP) | 24-52 | |||
| Anders Lee | 29 | 2019 | 28-51 (82GP) | 29-50 (425GP) | 29-51 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.17M 7 years | 1.41 |
| Artemi Panarin | 28 | 2019 | 29-90 (79GP) | 30-81 (322GP) | 30-86 | $11.64M years | $11.93M 7 years | 1.39 |
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 (78GP) | 27-51 (574GP) | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.36 |
| Milan Lucic | 28 | 2016 | 20-56 (81GP) | 20-50 (647GP) | 20-53 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.29 |
| *Chris Kreider | 29 | 2020 | 33-62 (60GP) | 25-50 (520GP) | 38-56 | $6.50M 7 years | $6.66M 7 years | 1.19 |
| **Cam Atkinson | 29 | 2018 | 36-57 (97GP) | 26-48 (397GP) | 31-53 | $5.88M 7 years | $6.18M 7 years | 1.17 |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 (82GP) | 24-55 (419GP) | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $7.98M 7 years | 1.14 |
| Kyle Okposo | 28 | 2016 | 23-66 (79GP) | 22-57 (529GP) | 23-62 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.11 |
| Zach Hyman | 29 | 2021 | 29-63 (43GP) | 20-44 (345GP) | 25-54 | $5.50M 7 years | $5.63M 7 years | 1.04 |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 29 | 2022 | 40-115 (82GP) | 29-83 (602GP) | 35-99 | $9.75M 7 years | $9.87M 7 years | 1.00 |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
The majority of players shown above had significantly higher production to warrant the seven-year deal.
Then of the few players who received a seven-year deal with similar career production, the two factors that differentiate Bunting (in a negative way) are the low signing year production and lack of games played.
Every single player listed above had a higher points per 82 pace than Bunting in their singing year, and all had over 300 NHL games played, compared to Bunting’s 187 career games.
Essentially, nothing points towards this long of a deal for the winger.
6 YEARS
With six-year deals as well, it’s a bit of a similar story.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Michael Bunting | 28 | 2023 | 23-49 (82GP) | 25-55 (187GP) | 24-52 | ||||
| Charlie Coyle | 28 | 2020 | 13-37 (106GP) | 15-41 (525GP) | 14-39 | $5.25M 6 years | $5.38M 6 years | 1.38 | $7.17M 6 years |
| *Brendan Gallagher | 29 | 2021 | 33-54 (35GP) | 26-50 (582GP) | 30-52 | $6.50M 6 years | $6.66M 6 years | 1.28 | $6.66M 6 years |
| Blake Coleman | 30 | 2021 | 21-46 (55GP) | 19-34 (301GP) | 20-40 | $4.90M 6 years | $5.02M 6 years | 1.26 | $6.53M 6 years |
| Blake Wheeler | 27 | 2013 | 32-70 (48GP) | 21-51 (372GP) | 27-61 | $5.60M 6 years | $7.27M 6 years | 1.19 | $6.20M 6 years |
| Nick Foligno | 28 | 2015 | 41-77 (34GP) | 17-39 (500GP) | 29-58 | $5.50M 6 years | $6.43M 6 years | 1.11 | $5.76M 6 years |
| *Josh Bailey | 29 | 2018 | 21-88 (58GP) | 14-43 (697GP) | 18-66 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.25M 6 years | 0.80 | $4.14M 6 years |
| Bryan Rust | 30 | 2022 | 33-79 (60GP) | 24-52 (424GP) | 29-66 | $5.13M 6 years | $5.19M 6 years | 0.79 | $4.10M 6 years |
There are some comps around Bunting’s age that had close to his production, but none with such little NHL experience. As a result, we can safely assume most of these projections for Bunting are unrealistic, from Coyle all the way to Foligno
That said, Bailey and Rust’s projections around $4.1M could be more realistic. Both Bailey and Rust signed a six-year deal after producing at a much higher rate in their signing year than over their career. As a result, there was a bit more of an element of risk to each deal, given it was difficult to project whether they’d replicate that production going forward. It’s a somewhat similar situation to Bunting, who would carry some risk as a result of the small sample size.
While a six-year deal for Bunting may not drop the cap hit all the way down to $4.1M, it’s an indication that Bunting getting that much term would likely result in a lower cap hit than many of the other comparables would suggest, likely coming a little ways above the Bailey and Rust projections. Again, a six-year deal is unlikely though.
5 YEARS
Five years is where we may get into a more realistic range for Bunting’s deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Michael Bunting | 28 | 2023 | 23-49 (82GP) | 25-55 (187GP) | 24-52 | ||||
| *Jakob Silfverberg | 29 | 2019 | 23-35 (56GP) | 19-40 (475GP) | 21-38 | $5.25M 5 years | $5.38M 5 years | 1.42 | $7.36M 5 years |
| James van Riemsdyk | 29 | 2018 | 36-55 (81GP) | 27-53 (609GP) | 32-54 | $7.00M 5 years | $7.35M 5 years | 1.36 | $7.08M 5 years |
| Matt Beleskey | 27 | 2015 | 28-40 (65GP) | 14-28 (329GP) | 21-34 | $3.80M 5 years | $4.44M 5 years | 1.31 | $6.79M 5 years |
| Michael Frolik | 27 | 2015 | 19-42 (82GP) | 15-38 (512GP) | 17-40 | $4.30M 5 years | $5.03M 5 years | 1.26 | $6.54M 5 years |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 27 | 2022 | 21-42 (74GP) | 16-31 (412GP) | 19-37 | $4.50M 5 years | $4.55M 5 years | 1.23 | $6.39M 5 years |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.00M 5 years | 1.22 | $6.34M 5 years |
| Reilly Smith | 26 | 2016 | 25-50 (82GP) | 18-43 (285GP) | 22-47 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.57M 5 years | 1.19 | $6.16M 5 years |
| Jordan Eberle | 29 | 2019 | 20-39 (78GP) | 26-59 (666GP) | 23-49 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.63M 5 years | 1.15 | $5.97M 5 years |
| Craig Smith | 26 | 2015 | 23-44 (82GP) | 19-43 (277GP) | 21-44 | 4.25M 5 years | 4.97M 5 years | 1.13 | $5.87M 5 years |
| Jaden Schwartz | 29 | 2021 | 16-43 (40GP) | 23-56 (560GP) | 20-50 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.63M 5 years | 1.13 | $5.85M 5 years |
| Jason Zucker | 26 | 2018 | 33-64 (82GP) | 24-43 (340GP) | 29-54 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.78M 5 years | 1.07 | $5.57M 5 years |
| Ondrej Palat | 26 | 2017 | 19-57 (75GP) | 20-58 (307GP) | 20-58 | $5.30M 5 years | $5.90M 5 years | 1.02 | $5.29M 5 years |
| *Trevor Moore | 28 | 2023 | 17-45 (33GP) | 15-37 (237GP) | 16-41 | $4.20M 5 years | $4.20M 5 years | 1.02 | $5.33M 5 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 26 | 2021 | 26-64 (49GP) | 22-48 (305GP) | 24-56 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.99 | $5.14M 5 years |
Looking at the projections, it’s also really difficult to project a number for Bunting. While many players do have more similar production to Bunting, they also once again have much more NHL experience and in turn, a larger sample size of quality production.
The projections would have him between $5.14M and $7.36M, but most this entire range arguably projects a deal at more money than Bunting is actually going to get.
That said, the one comparable here that stands out is Trevor Moore. The winger, like Bunting, signed a deal around the same age, despite limited NHL experience and had fairly similar production. The projection from Moore at $5.3M is likely the best projection of what Bunting could actually get on a five-year deal, compared to the longer list of winger with more experience.
4 YEARS
To me, four years arguably remains the ideal length for Bunting’s deal. It’s also likely the shortest term we’d see for Bunting. There’d be no reason for him to take a shorter deal, and given Bunting’s age, he shouldn’t count on getting another big deal after this contract expires. As a result, we know term will likely be important.
Comparables for four-year deals are below:
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Michael Bunting | 28 | 2023 | 23-49 (82GP) | 25-55 (187GP) | 24-52 | ||||
| Tomas Tatar | 27 | 2017 | 25-46 (82GP) | 24-46 (345GP) | 25-46 | $5.30M 4 years | $5.90M 4 years | 1.28 | $6.67M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 (51GP) | 25-48 (612GP) | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years | 1.25 | $6.49M 4 years |
| Carl Hagelin | 27 | 2015 | 17-35 (82GP) | 18-40 (266GP) | 18-38 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.68M 4 years | 1.23 | $6.40M 4 years |
| Adrian Kempe | 26 | 2022 | 37-57 (78GP) | 19-39 (390GP) | 28-48 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.57M 4 years | 1.16 | $6.03M 4 years |
| Joonas Donskoi | 27 | 2019 | 14-38 (80GP) | 13-35 (283GP) | 14-37 | $3.90M 4 years | $4.00M 4 years | 1.08 | $5.62M 4 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 27 | 2016 | 30-62 (78GP) | 26-50 (186GP) | 28-56 | $5.19M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $5.52M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 (71GP) | 18-41 (361GP) | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.60M 4 years | 1.05 | $5.44M 4 years |
| *Mats Zuccarello | 28 | 2015 | 16-51 (60GP) | 17-52 (204GP) | 17-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.26M 4 years | 1.01 | $5.26M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 (81GP) | 21-50 (500GP) | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.63M 4 years | 1.01 | $5.23M 4 years |
| Mikkel Boedker | 27 | 2016 | 17-52 (80GP) | 15-40 (463GP) | 16-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.58M 4 years | 1.00 | $5.18M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 (53GP) | 27-72 (680GP) | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.15M 4 years | 0.99 | $5.16M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $4.90M 4 years |
| Brett Connolly | 27 | 2019 | 22-47 (81GP) | 15-30 (427GP) | 19-39 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.61M 4 years | 0.93 | $4.81M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $4.75M 4 years |
| Micheal Ferland | 27 | 2019 | 20-46 (71GP) | 15-33 (321GP) | 18-40 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.61M 4 years | 0.90 | $4.69M 4 years |
| *Alex Iafallo | 28 | 2021 | 23-53 (40GP) | 16-39 (267GP) | 20-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.10M 4 years | 0.89 | $4.63M 4 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 28 | 2020 | 29-53 (68GP) | 23-47 (525GP) | 26-50 | $4.25M 4 years | $4.35M 4 years | 0.87 | $4.52M 4 years |
| Mason Marchment | 27 | 2022 | 27-71 (54GP) | 18-52 (91GP) | 23-62 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.55M 4 years | 0.73 | $3.82M 4 years |
From the four-year deal comparables, you see more examples of players who had less experience signing for that length.
Mason Marchment is a perfect example of how less experience does impact payment rate. He’s the one comparable listed who had less than 100 games experience at the time of signing and had by far the lowest payment rate on the list.
While Bunting won’t be anywhere near as low as the projection from Mason Marchment’s deal, it does point to the fact that he should be on the lower end of the projection range from $4.5M up to $6.7M (excluding Marchment’s deal).
Two players who signed right around the same number of games played were Mike Hoffman and Mats Zuccarello, which put Bunting between $5.25M and $5.50M on a four-year deal. Zuccarello also had the exact same production mid-point to Bunting. Especially based on the five-year projection, this seems like the most realistic range for Bunting’s deal at four years.
Projection
A four or five-year deal remains the most likely contract for Bunting, with each projection around a similar cap hit.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 4 Years | $5.25M | $6.00M | $4.75M |
| 5 Years | $5.20M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
That said, if Bunting ended up on a six-year deal, it would likely come at a lower cap hit, given the minimized risk.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 6 Years | $4.67M | $6.50M | $4.00M |
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