After seven years with the Maple Leafs, Tavares’ future in Toronto is uncertain.
Player Overview
A first-overall draft pick in 2009, John Tavares entered the league with considerable hype after coming out of junior hockey. Across four OHL seasons, the forward broke the league’s all-time goals record – a distinction he still holds today.
Across the first nine seasons of his career, Tavares emerged as the Islanders’ franchise center. He played 669 games with the team, scoring 272 goals and 621 points, while also serving as the Islanders’ captain for five seasons.
However, upon his contract with the Islanders expiring in 2018, Tavares signed a massive seven-year deal to join the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency. With the Maple Leafs, he’s played primarily as the team’s second-line center behind Auston Matthews, and also spent five years as captain from 2019 to 2024.
Despite a loaded forward group, the Maple Leafs weren’t able to make it through the second round across Tavares’ seven years in Toronto. With Mitch Marner likely heading to free agency and Tavares potentially hitting the market as well, it could leave the Maple Leafs with a very different look next season.
Tavares’ production has remained very strong into his mid-30s. This past season, Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points in 75 games, and we can expect that if he does head to free agency, there will still be a lot of interest.
What We Know
- Tavares noted that he was optimistic about returning to the Maple Leafs next season.
- Pierre LeBrun reported that Tavares’ contract would look different in Toronto than if he heads to free agency. LeBrun also noted that Tavares wants to remain in Toronto.
- LeBrun noted that while he believes Tavares would’ve been willing to sign for around $5M per year in September, the number may not be the same after having a big season.
Comparables
Below, we examine what Tavares’ deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Tavares turning 35 years old in September, the comparables used will generally be centers who were near his age at the time of signing, with limited wingers included as well. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
3 YEARS
Three years would almost certainly be the shortest deal we’d see for Tavares, with comparables in the table below.
The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Tavares can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $95.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Tavares Projection |
| John Tavares | 35 | 2025 | 42-81 75GP | 34-77 900GP | 38-79 | ||||
| Brock Nelson | 34 | 2025 | 27-57 82GP | 25-48 900GP | 27-53 | $7.50M 3 years | $7.50M 3 years | 1.42 | $11.18M 3 years |
| Paul Stastny | 34 | 2018 | 22-50 66GP | 23-66 742GP | 23-58 | $6.50M 3 years | $7.81M 3 years | 1.35 | $10.64M 3 years |
| Joe Pavelski | 35 | 2019 | 42-70 76GP | 30-65 963GP | 36-68 | $7.00M 3 years | $8.20M 3 years | 1.21 | $9.53M 3 years |
| Claude Giroux | 34 | 2022 | 23-71 75GP | 24-74 1018GP | 24-73 | $6.50M 3 years | $7.52M 3 years | 1.03 | $8.13M 3 years |
Based on the comps, they’d project Tavares to come in between $8.1M and $11.1M on a three-year deal. At the same time, given Tavares’ age, it’s still a bit far-fetched to think he could come in at a double-digit figure, even on a deal with limited term.
Plus, if you look towards the actual cap hits associated with the comps above, they were all between $6.5M and $7.5M, which looks to be more in-line with the going rate for a top-six center at his age.
Of course, Tavares was also much more productive than most of the comps listed, and with Claude Giroux’s contract projecting the lowest cap hit on the table at $8.1M, it’s difficult to think Tavares would end up lower than that mark on a three-year deal.
Joe Pavelski was also turning 35 years old when he signed his three-year contract, and that deal would project Tavares to be around $9.5M per year on a three-year contract. It’s unlikely Tavares gets to that mark, but it’s another indication that Tavares’ value could still be quite high on a three-year deal.
In the event that Tavares did sign for three years, it’s also likely to be at a higher cap hit than we’d see for a deal with more term (and likely a deal that would come in free agency, rather than the Maple Leafs). Factoring in the projection for Tavares on a four-year deal later in the article, and his value on a three-year contract would likely be above the $8.1M projected by the Giroux deal.
4 YEARS
If Tavares hits free agency, there’s a good argument that he’d be able to earn a four-year contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $95.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Tavares Projection |
| John Tavares | 35 | 2025 | 42-81 75GP | 34-77 900GP | 38-79 | ||||
| *Alex Killorn | 34 | 2023 | 27-64 53GP | 20-47 991GP | 24-56 | $6.25M 4 years | $7.15M 4 years | 1.28 | $10.09M 4 years |
| *Alexander Steen | 33 | 2017 | 21-64 67GP | 22-53 746GP | 22-59 | $5.75M 4 years | $7.32M 4 years | 1.24 | $9.80M 4 years |
| Steven Stamkos | 34 | 2024 | 42-84 79GP | 42-86 1082GP | 42-85 | $8.00M 4 years | $8.68M 4 years | 1.02 | $8.07M 4 years |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 53GP | 21-58 991GP | 23-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.15M 4 years | 0.99 | $7.82M 4 years |
| Jordan Staal | 35 | 2023 | 17-34 82GP | 19-45 1173GP | 18-40 | $2.90M 4 years | $3.32M 4 years | 0.83 | $6.56M 4 years |
| Evgeni Malkin | 36 | 2022 | 40-84 41GP | 37-96 981GP | 39-90 | $6.10M 4 years | $7.06M 4 years | 0.78 | $6.20M 4 years |
Within the group of comps, we see a wide range of projections, from $6.2M on the low end, up to $10.1M on the high end.
Again, it’s unlikely that Tavares would be able to get close to $10M per year on a four-year deal, as projected by the Alex Killorn and Alexander Steen deals at the top of the table. At the same time, he’s also unlikely to come in as low as the Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin contracts would project, being around the $6.5M mark, if he hits free agency.
Both Staal and Malkin extended with their long-time team, and likely took a pay-cut to do so. In addition, Staal was being used in a smaller role than Tavares, and Malkin had a fairly substantial injury history at that point, which likely resulted in a lower payment rate for each of them.
The best comp of the group by far would be the contract signed by Steven Stamkos last offseason. Stamkos had similarly high production to Tavares, and earned $8M per year, which would come to about $8.7M when adjusted to a $95.5M cap hit. The Stamkos deal would project a four-year deal for Tavares to come in around $8.1M, on the same cost-per-points basis.
Stamkos was fairly fresh off two Stanley Cups, and was also a year younger than Tavares at the time of signing, which could’ve inflated his cap hit a little bit when compared to what Tavares could make. But while Tavares may not be quite at that range, his value likely isn’t too far below $8M, especially with the Ryan O’Reilly contract also projecting $7.8M for Tavares on a four-year deal.
5/6 YEARS
We really haven’t seen a ton of examples of players around Tavares’ age getting five or six year-deals in recent history. If Tavares does get this term, it’s likely a scenario where he takes a lower cap hit at a longer term, to re-sign with the Maple Leafs.
The only recent comparables that could be applicable are Jonathan Marchessault’s five-year contract with the Nashville Predators last offseason, and Yanni Gourde’s recent extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $95.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Tavares Projection |
| John Tavares | 35 | 2025 | 42-81 75GP | 34-77 900GP | 38-79 | ||||
| Jonathan Marchessault | 34 | 2024 | 42-69 82GP | 30-63 638GP | 36-66 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.97M 5 years | 0.90 | $7.15M 5 years |
| Yanni Gourde | 34 | 2025 | 10-45 57GP | 8-47 602GP | 14-46 | $2.33M 6 years | $2.33M 6 years | 0.50 | $4.00M 6 years |
Marchessault’s deal would project a five-year contract for Tavares to come in just north of $7M per year. Again though, these were fairly different scenarios, where Marchessault was fairly recently coming off a Stanley Cup win in 2023, and then went to free agency. If Tavares gets a five-year deal, it’s likely a result of him taking a pay-cut to stay in Toronto. So while we don’t have much of a baseline to work with, it’s likely that we’d only see this length of deal at a lower cap hit, likely somewhere below the Marchessault projection.
Then with the Gourde deal, we saw the best example of a player getting way more term than they should have received, but at a reduced cap hit. Gourde’s deal would project a six-year deal for Tavares to come in at a $4M cap hit.
However, Gourde’s $2.33M cap hit was low, even for a six-year contract, as explained in his contract analysis article. Especially considering Tavares’ production is significantly higher than Gourde’s was, we could expect a higher payment rate. So while a six-year deal for Tavares would certainly represent a lower cap hit than we’d see at any other length, it’s still unlikely that we’d see the number come in as low as $4M per year.
Projection
If Tavares does head to free agency, we can expect him to still be able to earn quite a bit of money. Based on his age and comparables, a three or four-year deal would be most likely.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 years | $8.50M | $9.50M | $7.50M |
| 4 years | $7.75M | $8.50M | $7.50M |
If Tavares re-signs in Toronto, there’s a very good chance we’d see a longer deal at a lower cap hit. There really aren’t a ton of good comps to use to be able to accurately project what the number could look like, but Tavares is still able to produce at close to a point-per-game rate, and scored at an 82-game-pace of over 40 goals this season. As a result, while we could see him take a pay cut to remain in Toronto, it would still need to come with a fair cap hit.
A deal around $30M over either five or six years could represent close to the same total dollars as he could likely make on a four-year deal in free agency, and is much more likely in the scenario where he extends in Toronto.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 5 years | $6.00M | $7.00M | $5.00M |
| 6 years | $5.00M | $6.00M | $4.00M |
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