After 16 years with Tampa Bay, could Stamkos find a new home?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Since being selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2008, Steven Stamkos has been a staple with the organization.

Through more than 1000 games and over a decade as the team’s captain, Stamkos has captured two Stanley Cups and has led the NHL in goals twice. At 34 years old, he’s avoided any decline to this point, and remains consistently good for about 40 goals per year.

While he’ll provide most of his impact from his offensive numbers, Stamkos can be effective away from the puck as well, and remains a legitimate top-line forward. With the ability to play either at center or on the wing, and the forward continuing to post point-per-game numbers, Stamkos would be one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, should he leave Tampa Bay.

What We Know

• The Lightning and Stamkos had begun preliminary talks on a contract early in the offseason.
• Both sides have noted a desire to have Stamkos to return for next season.
• In the first trade of the offseason, the Lightning re-acquired Ryan McDonagh from the Nashville Predators. As a result, the team faces an even tighter cap crunch, and may need to move out pieces to open cap space to extend Stamkos.
• In an article with The Athletic, Pierre LeBrun noted he wasn’t sure if Stamkos and the Lightning would be able to ‘bridge the gap’ in the negotiations.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Stamkos’ deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

Typically, I try not to mix centers and wingers when comparing contracts. However, there’s a very small sample size of contracts for centers with Stamkos’ age and production, so I’ll be including some wingers in the comparable contract tables as well.

With Stamkos now 34 years old, we’ll be looking at comparable players who were near his age at the time of signing.

4 Years

A four-year contract is likely the longest term we’d seen for Stamkos. Still, teams have generally really shifted away from giving that kind of term to players entering their mid-30s.

With most of the four-year comparables, the contracts were signed quite a while ago. However, the one that really stands out is Alex Killorn, which demonstrates that teams are still willing to give term to players at Stamkos’ age in the right scenario.

The issue is that most teams would likely be unwilling to pay what most of these comps would project for Stamkos on a four-year deal. Aside from maybe Alex Ovechkin, you don’t see many really high-priced, four/five-year deals for players in their mid-30s.

While four of the seven comps would project Stamkos coming in north of a $9.5 million cap hit on a four-year deal, it seems unrealistic for a team to pay that. In terms of actual cap hit, none of the comps received a deal above a $7M cap hit (and all are still under $9M when applied to an $87.7M cap hit).

Ryan O’Reilly was a couple years younger than Stamkos when signing his deal last season, but it’s the comp that may project the most realistic outcome, if Stamkos got a four-year deal. O’Reilly’s payment rate was the lowest of any of the comps, and if a team was going to give Stamkos a four-year deal, it’s likely to come in at a lower value. In terms of the actual maximum cap hit that teams have usually been willing to give out to players of Stamkos’ age, the $7.75M projection from the O’Reilly contract is probably the most realistic.

Now, I’ve also included the Evgeni Malkin contract from 2022. Malkin was two years older when he signed, and at 36 years old, that’s a fairly important stat. It likely would’ve resulted in Pittsburgh only being willing to go to a certain cap hit if there was going to be a four-year deal signed. But the contract was significantly undervalued compared to the other comps, with Malkin taking less money to stay with the Penguins.

If Stamkos chooses to do the same, of course, we could always see a much lower dollar figure than the $7.75M projection. But that wouldn’t come as a result of value, but instead based on Stamkos’ own decision.

3 Years

A three-year deal is probably the most likely outcome for Stamkos.

The two most realistic comps are likely the most recent ones, in Joe Pavelski and Claude Giroux. While the Pavelski comp would still project a contract at above a $9M cap hit, once again, his actual cap hit at the time of signing was $7M. Pavelski may not be at Stamkos’ level, but it still shows there’s generally a range of what teams will pay at his age.

Perhaps the best comp we have to use though is Giroux. The forward signed two years ago at the same age, and his deal came with the lowest payment rate of any of the comps listed. Still, Giroux’s deal would project Stamkos to come in right around the $8M mark on three-year deal.

This seems like the most realistic cap hit for a three-year deal. Not only is Giroux the most recent comp, but with both Pavelski and Datsyuk coming in at $7M+ and all of Giroux, Joe Thornton, and Paul Stastny just below $7M in actual cap hit, we can see a likely range. A rising cap and Stamkos outproducing every comp listed means he could hit the $8M mark, but it would be a little surprising to see it come in higher.

2 Years

A two-year deal is unlikely for Stamkos. Essentially, the only reason he likely would (or should) accept a deal at that length was if he only intended to play that long, or he wanted to specifically sign with a team that would only offer a two-year deal. There will almost surely be teams willing to give more term on a contract.

I’m only including a single two-year deal here, because if Stamkos actually did take a two-year contract, it’s going to be incredibly tough to predict the cap hit. It would likely mean he’s already taking a smaller contract than he’s bound to be offered, so if money isn’t a priority, establishing a market value for that deal probably won’t mean much in the way of projecting a cap hit.

Still, in the case Stamkos did only want to play two more years, the Kopitar deal provides a decent look at what his value would be. Kopitar was quite a bit older, but with only a two-year deal, the value likely isn’t drastically different based on 34 versus 37 years old. The other consideration with Kopitar’s deal is that, once again, even a top player didn’t get a deal at more than $7M in his mid-30s. So even if Stamkos’ projected value was higher by factoring in other comps, the likelihood of him ever seeing a much higher cap hit, even on a two-year deal, is very low.

Projection

The biggest thing to point out with Stamkos is that while money could be important, we don’t know if it will be the driving force behind his decision.

As of this writing, the forward’s career earnings stand at nearly $100 million, according to CapFriendly.com. So if he wanted to sign in Tampa Bay, or elsewhere, he could certainly end up taking a deal below market value to do so. We’ve seen it with Evgeni Malkin and others around his age, and if he chooses to go that route, these projections could be off.

We’ve also seen a tendency for teams to shy away from breaking past the $7M range for forwards entering their mid-30s. So while Stamkos should get more, it’s possible that won’t be the case.

Still, if Stamkos takes what should be a market-value contract, it’s probably coming in around an $8M cap hit for three years.

If money is a priority though, there’s a chance we could see Stamkos end up getting a fourth year, without much of a reduced cap hit. If Alex Killorn could get $6.25M four four years last year at the same age, Stamkos could get close to $8M.

Alternatively, if Stamkos wasn’t looking to play more than a couple more years, a two-year deal is always possible.