The Lightning signed Gourde to a long-term deal, in order to retain the forward at a low cap hit.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Tampa Bay Lightning signed forward Yanni Gourde to a six-year contract extension earlier this week, carrying a $2.33M cap hit. The deal carries a full no-trade clause for the duration of the contract.

Below, we take a look at what kind of value the Lightning are getting with the deal.

Player Overview

Yanni Gourde took a bit of a unique path to the NHL, spending the majority of his first five professional seasons in the minors. The forward only joined the Tampa Bay Lightning full-time in the 2017-18 season as he was approaching his late 20s, but made an immediate impact upon doing so. Scoring 25 goals and 64 points with the Lightning in his rookie season, the forward ended up finishing sixth in Calder Trophy voting.

Gourde may not have been as productive in his next three seasons with Tampa Bay, but was highly effective in a middle-six role, helping the Lightning to win two Stanley Cups.

Despite Gourde still being under contract for three more years after the back-to-back Cups though, he was left exposed for the Expansion Draft, and was selected by the Seattle Kraken.

In parts of four seasons with Seattle from there, Gourde produced at a rate of 44 points-per-82 across 271 games with the team. As a pending free agent this year though, Gourde was traded back to the Lightning at the deadline, alongside Oliver Bjorkstrand.

Now back with the Lightning for the forseeable future, Gourde will continue to be a highly effective middle-six forward. Able to play either at center or on the wing, Gourde uses his speed to play a high-intensity game, able to carry the puck up ice or be effective on the forecheck. He’s strong defensively and can be counted on to show up every game, along with being able to add secondary offense.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Gourde’s deal compares to recent contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page. With Gourde turning 34 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were near his age in the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

This is a bit of a unique analysis, in the sense that we haven’t seen a contract like Gourde’s come up recently. Obviously, giving a six-year term to a forward turning 34 years old isn’t ideal, given his value is likely to tank in the back half of the deal.

However, in giving the extra term, the Lightning were able to really reduce the cap hit. While we saw a similar structure for Chris Tanev’s deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs last offseason, we haven’t seen a deal with this much term for a forward of Gourde’s age in a long time.

At least in terms recent comparables for six-year deals, there really aren’t any to use. As a result, we’ll look at what Gourde could have likely been expected to make, if he signed a contract with less term.

4 YEARS

There still aren’t a ton of applicable comps even at four years, in terms of players who had somewhat similar production before signing. But we do have three examples to compare, listed below.

With both Alex Killorn and Alex Steen, both players produced at a much higher rate in their signing year than Gourde. The deals would’ve both projected that Gourde could’ve made between $5.5M and $6M on a four-year deal. While this seems high, and it’s not overly applicable considering their higher signing year production rate, it does point to the fact that Gourde’s cap hit could’ve been considerably higher on a four-year deal.

Perhaps a better example is the Jordan Staal contract, which would carry around a $3.3M cap hit when adjusted to a $95.5M salary cap. Staal’s points-per-82 game rate had slipped from his career average at the time he signed, and he was slightly older, which points to the lower payment rate.

But even there, Staal’s contract would’ve projected a $3.8M cap hit for Gourde on a four-year deal, and considering Gourde’s higher rate of production, it’s certainly possible he could’ve passed a $4M cap hit on a four-year deal if he had tested free agency, surpassing the $14M total value of the contract that he ended up signing for.

5 YEARS

With five-year contracts, we also don’t have a ton to work with in terms of applicable comparables. However, one deal that was signed last year that we can look towards was Jonathan Marchessault’s five-year contract. Marchessault, like Gourde, almost certainly could’ve gotten a higher cap hit if he had taken a shorter deal instead, so it does show what a reduced cap hit could look like for a player opting for a long-term deal in their mid-30s.

As shown in the table, the cost-per-point average from Marchessault’s five-year deal would project a cap hit around $4.15M for Gourde on a five-year contract. While this may still be a little high in terms of a projection, given that Gourde’s production and role weren’t as significant as Marchessault’s at the time of signing, it still points to a cap hit substantially higher than the $2.33M that Gourde signed for.

So even if Gourde’s value may not have been as high as $4M on a five-year contract, it likely shouldn’t have been too far off. Even adding a sixth year, his $2.33M cap hit looks like an absolute bargain.

Final Analysis

With the deal, the Lightning got creative in order to secure a great contract. Gourde’s cap hit would’ve been much higher on a shorter deal, possibly surpassing $4M if he had taken a four-year deal in free agency.

Even by opting for a longer-term deal to keep the cap down though, the $2.33M is still excellent value. Comparing what he should’ve made even on a five-year contract, Gourde’s cap hit still comes in much lower than expectations. So even with the longer-than-expected term on the contract, Gourde pretty clearly still took a pay cut in terms of total dollar value in order to stay in Tampa Bay.

The Lightning will get great value with this deal, especially in the first few years of the contract.