Ekman-Larsson cashed in on a four-year deal after his Stanley Cup win.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

Oliver Ekman-Larsson signed a four-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs as free agency opened on July 1, carrying a $3.5 million cap hit. The deal comes with a 16-team no-trade list for all four years.

Below, we take a look at the contract, and evaluate whether the Leafs got good value.

Player Overview

For over a decade, Oliver Ekman-Larsson was a fixture of the Arizona Coyotes’ blue line. From the time he was selected by the Coyotes sixth overall in 2009, Ekman-Larsson went on to play 769 games with the organization, scoring 128 goals and 388 points, while averaging about 23:30 per game in ice time over his tenure. The defenseman ended up ranking second all-time in games played with the Coyotes franchise.

With the team setting out towards a rebuild in 2021 though, Ekman-Larsson was traded to the Vancouver Canucks. Upon joining the Canucks, Ekman-Larsson’s play took a steep decline, seeing his numbers really dip in his two years with the team. By only 2023, he was bought out by the Canucks, with four years still remaining on his contract.

Coming off the buyout, Ekman-Larsson took a one-year deal in Florida. With the Panthers, he was able to rebuild his value, putting up his highest goal and points totals since 2019-20. While he still played in a fairly sheltered role on the bottom pairing for a lot of the season, he showed that he could be effective in top-four minutes when called upon.

In Toronto, Ekman-Larsson should be expected to take on a bottom-pairing role, or at most, a second-pairing role.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at how Ekman-Larsson’s deal compares to those of other defenders who signed four-year contracts around the same age. With Ekman-Larsson now 33 years old, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 31 and 35 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, the tables below allow for horizontal scrolling.

4 YEARS

When it comes to four-year deals for defensemen into their 30s, there are some decent comparables. That said, the strong majority of the comps below came from defenders who were 31 years old and younger.

Of the four-year comps, only two of them signed for deals at 33 years old older.

That said, Ekman-Larsson’s production actually does compare very well against most of the comps, as does his career time on ice. But what may point to the fact that Ekman-Larsson probably shouldn’t have warranted a four-year deal is his signing year ice time.

Ekman-Larsson’s usage has taken a major dip in the last two seasons. The 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons have represented the lowest ice time over the defenseman’s career, other than his rookie year in 2010-11. With Ekman-Larsson taking on a bottom-pairing role through a lot of his tenure in Florida, he had lower signing year time on ice than any other comp listed above. In fact, of the three defensemen who signed at 32 years or older, all of them were counted on for at least 22 minutes per game in their signing year.

Chris Tanev did sign a six-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs at 34 years old this summer, but he was also averaging close to 20 minutes per game, and is going to be used in a top-four role.

So while Ekman-Larsson’s production remained strong, his lower usage points to an argument that he possibly shouldn’t have received a four-year deal, based on the role he’s expected to play.

3 YEARS

While Ekman-Larsson signed for four years, below, we take a look at how his stats compare to players who signed three-year deals around the same age.

While a lot of the comps do still have higher usage than Ekman-Larsson in their signing year, we do see some players near the bottom of the table with comparable numbers. All of Radko Gudas, Tyler Myers and Luke Schenn had comparable or lower usage in their signing year, and all of the defenders also signed their deal recently as well.

Especially with Myers, we see a very recent comp with very similar production and usage, both over his signing year and career. Even with Luke Schenn ($2.9M adjusted cap hit), we see that Ekman-Larsson’s numbers would have warranted at least that same contract, and likely more. The Radko Gudas contract is a bit of an outlier, but Gudas was pretty clearly overpaid, given the Ducks have an abundance of short-term cap space.

So considering Ekman-Larsson’s numbers, there was justification for a three-year deal, likely a little above the $3M mark, around his current $3.5M cap hit.

Final Analysis

While Ekman-Larsson’s numbers justified a $3.5M cap hit on a three-year deal, there are less comparables pointing towards the defenseman warranting a four-year contract. His lack of usage in his signing year points towards too much term for a defender who’s likely to be be used in a bottom-pairing role. It’s not a bad contract, but does carry a bit more risk than necessary, given the length.