Tanev is expected to attract interest in free agency, if he can’t get a deal done to remain in Dallas.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Chris Tanev holds a reputation as one of the most reliable defensemen in the league.

After a decade with the Vancouver Canucks to start his NHL career, Tanev joined the Calgary Flames four years ago, which had marked the first time he entered the market as an unrestricted free agent. With Calgary, he showed no signs of decline as he moved further into his 30s, before fetching the Flames a second-round pick and a prospect at the trade deadline in a deal with the Dallas Stars.

While his ice time has slightly declined in each of the last three seasons, Tanev remains a reliable, top-four defenseman. He’s consistent in his own end, and while he won’t add a ton of offense, he’s good for taking away lanes and winning battles to kill offense. He also ranked fourth in the NHL in blocked shots this season, and in Tanev’s 19 regular season games after being acquired by Dallas, he faced a higher quality of competition than any other defenseman on the team (according to Dobber’s Player Usage Chart).

What We Know

• Both the team and player would like to work out an extension to keep Tanev in Dallas, per TSN’s Darren Dreger.
• Per Dreger, the Ottawa Senators will have interest in Tanev, if he hits free agency. However, Tanev did decline to waive his no-movement clause to be traded to Ottawa last season, per Bruce Garrioch.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Tanev’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page.

With Tanev now 34 years old, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were around his age in the first year of their contract. There will be an overlap with the same comparables from the Tyler Myers contract projection.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for all tables below.

4 YEARS

Given his age, a four-year deal is almost surely the maximum term Tanev would get, and there are few comparbales for even that length of deal.

Looking at his stats as well, his numbers aren’t overly comparable to any comp who did get that kind of deal – both based on production and ice time, Tanev was lower in every cateogory.

Ryan Suter was coming off a buyout, which could’ve lowered his value, but all signs point to Tanev not even reaching a $4 million cap hit at that term.

3 YEARS

Three years is a more probable term for Tanev’s deal, and would be likely result in a higher cap hit than any four-year contract.

Looking at the comps, Tanev would be well below the projections for any defenseman from Francois Beauchemin ($5.5M adjusted cap hit) and above. However, he does compare quite a bit better against the bottom four projections.

Compared to Luke Schenn, Tanev had slightly worse signing year production, but was better in every other category, including much higher usage. So it’s clear Tanev would be above a $3M cap hit on a three-year deal. His career numbers also looked a little better than Nick Jensen’s stats, but Jensen had the bigger signing year, pointing to the fact that Tanev would be a little below $4.25M. While the Radko Gudas contract would contradict that a bit (with Tanev having very comparable production to Gudas, but higher ice time), the Gudas deal was also a pretty clear overpayment.

So while Tanev could maybe get a bit more money from a team willing to overpay (like Anaheim was for Gudas), a team with cap space is likely one that won’t be overly competitive over the course of Tanev’s deal. Considering he wanted a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup at the trade deadline (per Bruce Garrioch), the more realistic scenario is that Tanev signs with a team that’s competitive but pays him a little less, coming in around the $4M mark.

2 YEARS

Two years is probably the most realistic term for Tanev’s deal, based on available comparables. At his age, he’s likely to want some security on his contract, so a one-year deal seems unlikely.

Tanev’s ice time may not match up overly well against the comps, but his production does align a little better. He’s not overly comparable to any player from Kevin Bieksa or above, but compares much better to the four players below.

Generally, his production is nearly the same as the bottom four comps in the table, with a range of Dan Girardi’s $3.5M adjusted cap hit on the low end, to Johnny Oduya’s adjusted $4.6M contract on the high end. So while Tanev may not get back up to the $4.5M cap hit that he had on his most recent contract, most comps would point to him still reaching the $4M mark.

Projection

A two or three-year deal remains the most realistic scenario for Tanev, with a four-year deal at a reduced cap hit as a less-likely option.