For the second year in a row, HockeyComparables.com released contract projections for pending free agents in 2024.
A list of the Top 50 Free Agents was created, with players designated in this category receiving projection articles for their contracts (or analysis articles, if the contract was signed prior to the article being released). All other players had contracts projected at different terms on the applicable page, based on expiry status (RFA/UFA).
All 2024 projection pages are available here, with a full list of results also below.
Full Results
The table is filtered in the following order: 1. Term, 2. Actual Cap Hit, 3. Last Name, to display projected cap hit versus actual cap hit for the player’s signing term. A percentage error was then calculated based on the difference between the projected cap hit and actual cap hit.
Note: the table only includes players who had a contract projected for the term they signed at. Contract projection articles are linked in the table where applicable.
| Player | Term | Status | Projected Cap Hit | Actual Cap Hit | Difference | % Error |
| Sam Reinhart | 8 | UFA | $8.50M | $8.63M | $0.13M | 1.4 |
| Jeremy Swayman | 8 | RFA | $7.00M | $8.25M | $1.25M | 15.2 |
| Jake Guentzel | 7 | UFA | $9.50M | $9.00M | $0.50M | 5.6 |
| Moritz Seider | 7 | RFA | $8.50M | $8.55M | $0.05M | 0.6 |
| Elias Lindholm | 7 | UFA | $7.14M | $7.75M | $0.61M | 7.9 |
| Brandon Montour | 7 | UFA | $7.25M | $7.14M | $0.11M | 1.5 |
| Brady Skjei | 7 | UFA | $6.75M | $7.00M | $0.25M | 3.6 |
| Jake DeBrusk | 7 | UFA | $5.00M | $5.50M | $0.50M | 10.0 |
| Matt Roy | 6 | UFA | $5.00M | $5.75M | $0.75M | 13.0 |
| Brett Pesce | 6 | UFA | $4.75M | $5.50M | $0.75M | 13.6 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 6 | UFA | $4.33M | $5.00M | $0.67M | 13.3 |
| Anton Lundell | 6 | RFA | $5.25M | $5.00M | $0.25M | 5.0 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 5 | RFA | $4.25M | $4.75M | $0.50M | 10.5 |
| Steven Stamkos | 4 | UFA | $7.75M | $8.00M | $0.25M | 3.1 |
| Sean Durzi | 4 | RFA | $6.13M | $6.00M | $0.13M | 2.2 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 4 | UFA | $5.75M | $6.00M | $0.25M | 4.2 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 4 | UFA | $5.00M | $5.50M | $0.50M | 9.1 |
| Dakota Joshua | 4 | UFA | $3.75M | $3.25M | $0.50M | 15.4 |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 3 | UFA | $5.50M | $5.40M | $0.10M | 1.9 |
| Brenden Dillon | 3 | UFA | $3.00M | $4.00M | $1.00M | 25.0 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 3 | RFA | $3.50M | $3.85M | $0.35M | 9.1 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 3 | UFA | $3.50M | $3.75M | $0.25M | 6.7 |
| Warren Foegele | 3 | UFA | $3.25M | $3.50M | $0.25M | 7.1 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin | 3 | UFA | $2.50M | $3.25M | $0.75M | 23.1 |
| Jordan Martinook | 3 | UFA | $2.50M | $3.05M | $0.55M | 18.0 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 3 | UFA | $3.17M | $3.00M | $0.17M | 5.7 |
| Tyler Myers | 3 | UFA | $4.00M | $3.00M | $1.00M | 33.3 |
| Stefan Noesen | 3 | UFA | $3.00M | $2.75M | $0.25M | 9.1 |
| Michael Amadio | 3 | UFA | $2.75M | $2.60M | $0.15M | 5.8 |
| Sam Carrick | 3 | UFA | $1.35M | $1.00M | $0.35M | 35.0 |
| Liam O’Brien | 3 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.00M | $0.25M | 25.0 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 3 | UFA | $1.75M | $0.85M | $0.90M | 106.9 |
| Kyle MacLean | 3 | RFA | $1.35M | $0.78M | $0.57M | 73.1 |
| Martin Necas | 2 | RFA | $5.50M | $6.50M | $1.00M | 15.4 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 2 | UFA | $3.50M | $5.00M | $1.50M | 30.0 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 2 | UFA | $5.50M | $4.00M | $1.50M | 37.5 |
| David Perron | 2 | UFA | $3.25M | $4.00M | $0.75M | 18.8 |
| T.J. Brodie | 2 | UFA | $3.00M | $3.75M | $0.75M | 20.0 |
| Matt Dumba | 2 | UFA | $3.00M | $3.75M | $0.75M | 20.0 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 2 | RFA | $3.75M | $3.48M | $0.28M | 7.9 |
| Laurent Brossoit | 2 | UFA | $2.50M | $3.30M | $0.80M | 24.2 |
| Cole Perfetti | 2 | RFA | $2.90M | $3.25M | $0.35M | 10.8 |
| Timothy Liljegren | 2 | RFA | $3.00M | $3.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Barrett Hayton | 2 | RFA | $2.60M | $2.65M | $0.05M | 1.9 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 2 | UFA | $2.50M | $2.50M | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Stolarz | 2 | UFA | $2.50M | $2.50M | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Talbot | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $2.50M | $1.50M | 60.0 |
| Dylan Holloway | 2 | RFA | $1.25M | $2.29M | $1.04M | 45.4 |
| Joseph Veleno | 2 | RFA | $2.10M | $2.28M | $0.18M | 7.7 |
| Danton Heinen | 2 | UFA | $1.75M | $2.25M | $0.50M | 22.2 |
| Cole Sillinger | 2 | RFA | $2.40M | $2.25M | $0.15M | 6.7 |
| Braden Schneider | 2 | RFA | $1.70M | $2.20M | $0.50M | 22.7 |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 2 | RFA | $2.60M | $2.10M | $0.50M | 23.8 |
| Connor McMichael | 2 | RFA | $2.30M | $2.10M | $0.20M | 9.5 |
| Alexandre Texier | 2 | RFA | $2.50M | $2.10M | $0.40M | 19.0 |
| Vincent Desharnais | 2 | UFA | $1.50M | $2.00M | $0.50M | 25.0 |
| Erik Gustafsson | 2 | UFA | $1.25M | $2.00M | $0.75M | 37.5 |
| Sam Lafferty | 2 | UFA | $1.90M | $2.00M | $0.10M | 5.0 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 2 | UFA | $1.25M | $2.00M | $0.75M | 37.5 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 2 | UFA | $1.20M | $2.00M | $0.80M | 40.0 |
| Juuso Valimaki | 2 | RFA | $3.00M | $2.00M | $1.00M | 50.0 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 2 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.85M | $0.60M | 32.4 |
| Blake Lizotte | 2 | RFA | $2.10M | $1.85M | $0.25M | 13.5 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 2 | RFA | $2.05M | $1.84M | $0.21M | 11.4 |
| Teddy Blueger | 2 | UFA | $2.25M | $1.80M | $0.45M | 25.0 |
| Carl Grundstrom | 2 | RFA | $1.65M | $1.80M | $0.15M | 8.3 |
| Jack Drury | 2 | RFA | $2.15M | $1.73M | $0.42M | 19.5 |
| Egor Zamula | 2 | RFA | $1.50M | $1.70M | $0.20M | 11.8 |
| Bobby Brink | 2 | RFA | $1.65M | $1.50M | $0.15M | 10.0 |
| Jani Hakanpaa | 2 | UFA | $2.50M | $1.50M | $1.00M | 66.7 |
| Colin Miller | 2 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.50M | $0.50M | 33.3 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 2 | UFA | $1.75M | $1.50M | $0.25M | 16.7 |
| Jordan Spence | 2 | RFA | $1.60M | $1.50M | $0.10M | 6.7 |
| Scott Wedgewood | 2 | UFA | $1.05M | $1.50M | $0.45M | 30.0 |
| Peyton Krebs | 2 | RFA | $1.35M | $1.45M | $0.10M | 6.9 |
| Michael Kesselring | 2 | RFA | $1.55M | $1.40M | $0.15M | 10.7 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 2 | RFA | $1.35M | $1.35M | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dellandrea | 2 | RFA | $1.25M | $1.30M | $0.05M | 3.8 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 2 | RFA | $1.50M | $1.30M | $0.20M | 15.4 |
| Justin Barron | 2 | RFA | $1.65M | $1.15M | $0.50M | 43.5 |
| Max Jones | 2 | RFA | $1.75M | $1.00M | $0.75M | 75.0 |
| Calvin Pickard | 2 | UFA | $0.95M | $1.00M | $0.05M | 5.0 |
| Henry Thrun | 2 | RFA | $1.60M | $1.00M | $0.60M | 60.0 |
| Jackson LaCombe | 2 | RFA | $1.50M | $0.93M | $0.57M | 61.3 |
| Parkey Kelly | 2 | RFA | $1.05M | $0.83M | $0.22M | 26.5 |
| Joey Anderson | 2 | RFA | $1.10M | $0.80M | $0.30M | 37.5 |
| Troy Stecher | 2 | UFA | $1.15M | $0.79M | $0.36M | 45.6 |
| Matt Grzelcyk | 2 | UFA | $3.25M | $2.75M | $0.50M | 18.2 |
| Jason Zucker | 1 | UFA | $3.00M | $5.00M | $2.00M | 40.0 |
| Patrick Kane | 1 | UFA | $5.50M | $4.00M | $1.50M | 37.5 |
| Ian Cole | 1 | UFA | $2.25M | $3.10M | $0.85M | 27.4 |
| Henri Jokiharju | 1 | RFA | $3.00M | $3.10M | $0.10M | 3.2 |
| Jack Roslovic | 1 | UFA | $3.00M | $2.80M | $0.20M | 7.1 |
| Luke Kunin | 1 | RFA | $3.00M | $2.75M | $0.25M | 9.1 |
| Jonathan Drouin | 1 | UFA | $3.75M | $2.50M | $1.25M | 50.0 |
| Kaapo Kakko | 1 | RFA | $2.40M | $2.40M | 0 | 0 |
| Ilya Samsonov | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $1.80M | $0.20M | 11.1 |
| Tomas Tatar | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.80M | $0.55M | 30.6 |
| John Klingberg | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.76M | $0.51M | 29.0 |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.50M | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Forbort | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $1.50M | $0.50M | 33.3 |
| Isac Lundestrom | 1 | RFA | $1.80M | $1.50M | $0.30M | 20.0 |
| Pat Maroon | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.30M | $0.30M | 23.1 |
| Tyson Barrie | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.25M | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.25M | $0.25M | 20.0 |
| Nils Lundkvist | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $1.25M | $0.38M | 30.4 |
| Mike Reilly | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.25M | $0.25M | 20.0 |
| Sam Steel | 1 | RFA | $1.20M | $1.20M | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Dewar | 1 | RFA | $0.89M | $1.18M | $0.29M | 24.6 |
| Scott Perunovich | 1 | RFA | $0.81M | $1.15M | $0.34M | 29.6 |
| Corey Perry | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.15M | $0.15M | 13.0 |
| Christian Fischer | 1 | UFA | $1.15M | $1.13M | $0.02M | 1.8 |
| Urho Vaakanainen | 1 | RFA | $0.95M | $1.10M | $0.15M | 13.6 |
| Victor Olofsson | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.08M | $0.08M | 7.4 |
| Oliver Kylington | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $1.05M | $0.20M | 19.0 |
| Brett Leason | 1 | RFA | $0.84M | $1.05M | $0.21M | 20.0 |
| Connor Brown | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Johnson | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Kaapo Kahkonen | 1 | UFA | $1.50M | $1.00M | $0.50M | 50.0 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 1 | UFA | $1.20M | $1.00M | $0.20M | 20.0 |
| James Reimer | 1 | UFA | $1.20M | $1.00M | $0.20M | 20.0 |
| Brendan Smith | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Smith | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $1.00M | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sprong | 1 | UFA | $2.50M | $0.98M | $1.52M | 155.1 |
| Ty Emberson | 1 | RFA | $0.81M | $0.95M | $0.14M | 14.7 |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph | 1 | RFA | $0.89M | $0.95M | $0.06M | 6.3 |
| Erik Brannstrom | 1 | RFA | $1.50M | $0.90M | $0.60M | 66.7 |
| Jacob Bryson | 1 | RFA | $0.80M | $0.90M | $0.10M | 11.1 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.90M | $0.10M | 11.1 |
| Kevin Lankinen | 1 | UFA | $2.00M | $0.88M | $1.12M | 127.3 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 1 | RFA | $1.00M | $0.88M | $0.12M | 13.6 |
| Thomas Bordeleau | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $0.87M | 0 | 0 |
| Max Pacioretty | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.87M | $0.13M | 14.4 |
| Simon Holmstrom | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $0.85M | $0.02M | 2.4 |
| Arthur Kaliyev | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $0.83M | $0.04M | 4.8 |
| Philip Tomasino | 1 | RFA | $0.87M | $0.83M | $0.04M | 4.8 |
| Nick Cousins | 1 | UFA | $1.20M | $0.80M | $0.40M | 50.0 |
| Tyler Motte | 1 | UFA | $1.00M | $0.80M | $0.20M | 25.0 |
| Colin Blackwell | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $0.78M | $0.47M | 60.3 |
| Jesper Boqvist | 1 | RFA | $0.81M | $0.78M | $0.03M | 3.8 |
| Travis Boyd | 1 | UFA | $1.25M | $0.78M | $0.47M | 60.3 |
| Gustav Lindstrom | 1 | RFA | $0.78M | $0.78M | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Mahura | 1 | RFA | $0.97M | $0.78M | $0.19M | 24.4 |
| Alexander Nylander | 1 | RFA | $0.81M | $0.78M | $0.03M | 3.8 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 1 | RFA | $1.00M | $0.78M | $0.22M | 28.2 |
Players with a Designation of ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’
In addition to the players who received projections at different lengths, there were also players who received a designation of ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’ for their projection. This was given to any player who was projected to receive a contract at less than a $1 million cap hit, for either one or two years.
Of the 110 players assigned this projection, only 4 of them signed deals at a $1M cap hit or higher. Of those four, three of them came in at exactly a $1M cap hit, with the other being the result of an offer sheet.
All results for this designation are below (including 28 players who did not sign a new NHL contract).
| Player @ <$1M x 1/2 | Status | Actual Cap Hit | Term |
| Sebastian Aho | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Nikita Alexandrov | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Alex Barre-Boulet | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Nick Blankenburg | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Adam Beckman | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Emil Bemstrom | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Robert Bortuzzo | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jake Christiansen | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Louis Crevier | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Angus Crookshank | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Travis Dermott | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Nick DeSimone | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Mackenzie Entwistle | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Hadyn Fleury | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Liam Foudy | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Mark Friedman | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Brendan Gaunce | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Benoit-Olivier Groulx | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Cole Guttman | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| James Hamblin | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Santeri Hatakka | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Vinnie Hinostroza | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Jack Johnson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Reese Johnson | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Caleb Jones | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Tyson Jost | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Milos Kelemen | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Joel Kiviranta | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Kevin Labanc | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| William Lagesson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Steven Lorentz | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jake Lucchini | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Jacob MacDonald | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Matt Martin | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jaycob Megna | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Dakota Mermis | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Carson Meyer | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ben Meyers | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ian Mitchell | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Tomas Nosek | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jordan Oesterle | UFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Juuso Parssinen | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Tanner Pearson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Isaak Phillips | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Matthew Phillips | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Chad Ruhwedel | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Zachary Sanford | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Mason Shaw | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ryan Shea | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Devin Shore | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Ilya Solovyov | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Mitchell Stephens | RFA | $0.78M | 2 |
| Jack Studnicka | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jakub Vrana | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Chris Wagner | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Austin Watson | UFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jesse Ylonen | RFA | $0.78M | 1 |
| Jansen Harkins | UFA | $0.79M | 2 |
| Justin Bailey | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Calvin De Haan | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Ville Heinola | RFA | $0.80M | 2 |
| Trevor Lewis | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Jakob Pelletier | RFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Jarred Tinordi | UFA | $0.80M | 1 |
| Nico Daws | RFA | $0.81M | 2 |
| Jonatan Berggren | RFA | $0.83M | 1 |
| Pheonix Copley | UFA | $0.83M | 1 |
| Eric Comrie | UFA | $0.83M | 2 |
| Dennis Gilbert | UFA | $0.83M | 1 |
| Kaedan Korczak | RFA | $0.83M | 2 |
| Spencer Stastney | RFA | $0.83M | 2 |
| David Gustafsson | RFA | $0.84M | 2 |
| A.J. Greer | UFA | $0.85M | 2 |
| Noah Gregor | RFA | $0.85M | 1 |
| Dustin Wolf | RFA | $0.85M | 2 |
| Akira Schmid | RFA | $0.88M | 2 |
| Eric Robinson | UFA | $0.95M | 1 |
| Declan Chisholm | RFA | $1.00M | 1 |
| Taylor Raddysh | RFA | $1.00M | 1 |
| Oliver Wahlstrom | RFA | $1.00M | 1 |
| Philip Broberg | RFA | $4.58M | 2 |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | UFA | – | – |
| Samuel Blais | UFA | – | – |
| Ryan Carpenter | UFA | – | – |
| Rourke Chartier | UFA | – | – |
| Andrew Cogliano | UFA | Retired | – |
| Austin Czarnik | UFA | – | – |
| Adam Erne | UFA | – | – |
| Byron Froese | UFA | – | – |
| Sam Gagner | UFA | – | – |
| Mark Giordano | UFA | – | – |
| Alex Goligoski | UFA | Retired | – |
| Denis Gurianov | UFA | – | – |
| Mike Hoffman | UFA | – | – |
| Boris Katchouk | RFA | – | – |
| Waltteri Merela | RFA | – | – |
| Kyle Okposo | UFA | Retired | – |
| Fredrik Olofsson | UFA | – | – |
| Tyler Pitlick | UFA | – | – |
| Ivan Prosvetov | UFA | – | – |
| Marco Scandella | UFA | Retired | – |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | UFA | – | – |
| Jiri Smejkal | UFA | – | – |
| Marc Staal | UFA | Retired | – |
| Oskar Steen | UFA | – | – |
| Chris Tierney | UFA | – | – |
| Colin White | UFA | – | – |
| Nikita Zaitsev | UFA | – | – |
| Radim Zohorna | UFA | – | – |
Players without a Projection for their Contract Term
Of the 242 contracts signed where a projection was completed, 15 of them were signed at a contract term that was not projected (roughly six percent):
| Player | Status | Projection | Actual Contract |
| Jake Bean | RFA | $2.80M x 1 (QO) $1.25M x 1 (No QO) | $1.75M x 2 |
| Joshua Brown | UFA | $1.10M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | $1.00M x 3 |
| William Carrier | UFA | $2.50M x 5 $2.75M x 4 $2.75M x 3 $2.75M x 2 $3.00M x 1 | $2.00M x 6 |
| Casey DeSmith | UFA | $1.10M x 2 $1.30M x 1 | $1.00M x 3 |
| Matt Duchene | UFA | $5.25M x 2 | $3.00M x 1 |
| Joel Edmundson | UFA | $2.50M x 3 $2.50M x 2 $3.00M x 1 | $3.85M x 4 |
| Mattias Janmark | UFA | $1.00M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | $1.45M x 3 |
| Kent Johnson | RFA | $1.80M x 2 $0.87M x 1 | $1.80M x 3 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | UFA | $1.25M x 2 $1.25M x 1 | $1.15M x 4 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | UFA | $7.00M x 4 $7.00M x 3 $7.25M x 2 | $5.50M x 5 |
| Logan Stanley | RFA | $1.00M x 1 $0.78M x 1 (NO QO) | $1.25M x 2 |
| Chandler Stephenson | UFA | $6.67M x 6 $6.30M x 5 $6.25M x 4 $6.00M x 3 $6.75M x 2 $6.00M x 1 | $6.25M x 7 |
| Chris Tanev | UFA | $3.50M x 4 | $4.50M x 6 |
| Yakov Trenin | UFA | $2.00M x 3 $1.70M x 2 $1.50M x 1 | $3.50M x 4 |
| Alex Turcotte | RFA | <$1.00M x 1/2 | $0.78M x 3 |
| Calen Addison | RFA | $2.50M x 3 $1.70M x 2 $0.87M x 1 | – |
| Alexander Barabanov | UFA | $1.00M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | – |
| Cal Clutterbuck | UFA | $0.90M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | – |
| Tony DeAngelo | UFA | $0.90M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | – |
| Martin Jones | UFA | $0.90M x 2 $0.90M x 1 | – |
| Dominik Kubalik | UFA | $0.90M x 2 $1.00M x 1 | – |
| Antti Raanta | UFA | <$1.00M x 1 | – |
| Justin Schultz | UFA | $1.50M x 2 $2.00M x 1 | – |
| Blake Wheeler | UFA | <$1.00M x 1 | – |
| Filip Zadina | RFA | $1.25M x 2 $1.10M x 1 (QO) $0.85M x 1 (NO QO) |
Analyzing the Results
Below, the overall percentage error is listed for UFA/RFA contracts at each length of contract, with the sample size included.
| TERM | STATUS | SAMPLE SIZE | % ERROR |
| 8 | UFA | 1 | 1.5 |
| 8 | RFA | 1 | 15.2 |
| 7 | UFA | 5 | 5.4 |
| 7 | RFA | 1 | 0.6 |
| 6 | UFA | 3 | 13.4 |
| 6 | RFA | 1 | 5.0 |
| 5 | UFA | 0 | – |
| 5 | RFA | 1 | 10.5 |
| 4 | UFA | 4 | 6.6 |
| 4 | RFA | 1 | 2.2 |
| 3 | UFA | 13 | 16.1 |
| 3 | RFA | 2 | 19.9 |
| *2 | UFA | 23 | 26.6 |
| *2 | RFA | 32 | 17.4 |
| *1 | UFA | 34 | 29.8 |
| *1 | RFA | 24 | 12.7 |
The table also does not include contracts in which there was no projection done for the signing term.
Overall, the projections in 2024 saw some improvements from 2023.
The projections ended up being quite accurate for any deals at four years in length or more. Of the 18 contracts signed at this length, the error ran at only about 6.8 percent. For reference, this would mean on a contract between four and eight years at a $5M cap hit, the projection would’ve averaged to be $4.66M on the low end, or $5.34M on the high end. This marked an improvement from 2023, where the error percentage for deals at four years or longer was 9.5 percent.
There were also improvements with both the projections carrying a ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’ designation, and reducing the number of players who signed a contract a length that was not projected.
For comparison, six of the 106 players in 2023 who were projected for a contract at ‘<$1.00M x 1/2‘ signed at a deal worth $1 million or more (5.7 percent). In 2024, only four of 110 players with that designation signed for $1 million or more (3.6 percent), and three of those four players signed for exactly a $1 million cap hit.
With contract length, 27 of 208 projected contracts in 2023 were signed at a length that was not projected (13 percent). That was reduced to 15 of 242 projected contracts signed at a length that wasn’t projected in 2024 (6 percent).
Hockey Comparables 