The Kings extended their captain until 2026.
The Los Angeles Kings signed captain Anze Kopitar to a two-year contract extension last Thursday, which carries a $7M cap hit.
Kopitar’s extension carries a full no-movement clause and will kick in for the 2024-25 season, after the conclusion of his current deal.
While projections for 2024 UFAs won’t be out until much closer to next summer’s free agency period, a contract analysis article will be released for players who sign an extension beforehand.
Player Overview
Since being drafted 11th overall by the Kings nearly two decades ago, Anze Kopitar has been a franchise cornerstone for Los Angeles.
Throughout his career, Kopitar has frequently been able to score at an 82-game pace of about 25 goals and 70 points. A consistent contender for both the Selke and Lady Byng trophies (Kopitar has won two of each), the center has also established himself as one of the league’s best two-way forwards.
He was also a key part of the team’s Stanley Cup wins in 2012 and 2014, and took over the Kings’ captain in 2016.
Kopitar doesn’t play a speed-based game, but he’s great for being able to protect the puck with his body to keep control and make a play. He’s also coming off his most productive season in five years, where he scored 28 goals and 74 points in 82 games, and you never have to question his work ethic.
So while he’ll be 37 years old by the first year of his extension, the center has yet to show major signs of decline.
Comparables
Below we take a look at comparable contracts for Kopitar’s deal at different lengths, to get a sense of whether the extension was an overpayment, an underpayment, or a fair deal.
Comparables will include forwards who were a similar age at the time of signing, and posted similar stats. The tables will also include the cap hit of each comparable player in the first year of their contract, and their adjusted cap hit on an $87.5M salary cap, as projected for the 2024-25 season (when Kopitar’s deal will begin). The projection for Kopitar’s deal based on each comparable is listed on the far right.
For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
4 YEARS
Four years was extremely unlikely for Kopitar’s deal, but not impossible. The recent comparables we have are Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $87.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Anze Kopitar | 37 | 2024 | 28-74 (82GP) | 25-72 (991GP) | 27-73 | ||||
| Jordan Staal | 35 | 2023 | 17-34 (81GP) | 19-45 (1173GP) | 18-40 | $2.90M 4 years | $3.04M 4 years | 0.76 | $5.55M 4 years |
| Evgeni Malkin | 36 | 2022 | 40-84 (41GP) | 37-96 (981GP) | 39-90 | $6.10M 4 years | $6.47M 4 years | 0.72 | $5.25M 4 years |
Considering Malkin was coming off significant injury trouble and still got a four-year deal, Kopitar could’ve possibly gotten the same term at a low cap hit.
We also see a very similar cap hit projected for Kopitar, between the Malkin and Staal deals.
Based on projections, if the goal was to keep Kopitar’s cap hit low and the forward was aiming to continue playing for another four years, a cap hit in the projected range of $5.25M to $5.50M could’ve been possible.
3 YEARS
Teams have certainly moved away from giving out deals even as long as three years to players around Kopitar’s age. That said, there were some past comparables for it.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $87.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Anze Kopitar | 37 | 2024 | 28-74 (82GP) | 25-72 (991GP) | 27-73 | ||||
| Patrick Marleau | 38 | 2017 | 27-46 (82GP) | 28-59 (1493GP) | 28-53 | $6.25M 3 years | $7.29M 3 years | 1.38 | $10.04M 3 years |
| Paul Stastny | 34 | 2018 | 22-50 (66GP) | 23-66 (742GP) | 23-58 | $6.50M 3 years | $7.15M 3 years | 1.23 | $9.00M 3 years |
| Joel Ward | 35 | 2015 | 19-34 (82GP) | 15-35 (517GP) | 17-35 | $3.28M 3 years | $4.01M 3 years | 1.15 | $8.38M 3 years |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 36 | 2014 | 26-85 (47GP) | 27-81 (779GP) | 27-83 | $7.50M 3 years | $9.51M 3 years | 1.15 | $8.36M 3 years |
| Patrik Elias | 37 | 2013 | 24-62 (48GP) | 28-70 (1090GP) | 26-66 | $5.50M 3 years | $7.48M 3 years | 1.13 | $8.28M 3 years |
| Joe Pavelski | 35 | 2019 | 42-70 (76GP) | 30-65 (963GP) | 36-68 | $7.00M 3 years | $7.52M 3 years | 1.11 | $8.07M 3 years |
| Jarome Iginla | 37 | 2014 | 32-64 (78GP) | 35-73 (1310GP) | 34-69 | $5.33M 3 years | $6.76M 3 years | 0.98 | $7.15M 3 years |
| Patrick Eaves | 33 | 2017 | 33-53 (79GP) | 17-32 (624GP) | 25-43 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.68M 3 years | 0.85 | $6.24M 3 years |
There is a pretty established range here, with half of all comparables putting Kopitar between a cap hit of $8.05M and $8.4M on a three-year deal. That said, most of these deals are from a little while ago. Teams have really shifted from giving out term and it’s unlikely the Kings would’ve been willing to pay a higher price per year for a three-year deal rather than a two-year deal.
As a result, I think if a three-year deal was given out instead, it was probably coming in on the lower end of this range. Somewhere between Eaves’ $6.25M projection and Kopitar’s $7M per cap hit probably most realistic.
2 YEARS
If Kopitar was getting more than a one-year extension, two years always seemed to be most likely.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $87.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Anze Kopitar | 37 | 2024 | 28-74 (82GP) | 25-72 (991GP) | 27-73 | $7.00M 2 years | $7.00M 2 years | 0.96 | |
| Tomas Plekanec | 34 | 2016 | 26-60 (82GP) | 22-54 (761GP) | 24-57 | $6.00M 2 years | $7.19M 2 years | 1.26 | $9.21M 2 years |
| Antoine Vermette | 33 | 2015 | 13-38 (82GP) | 19-43 (834GP) | 16-41 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.60M 2 years | 1.12 | $8.19M 2 years |
| Mike Fisher | 35 | 2015 | 26-54 (59GP) | 21-45 (946GP) | 24-50 | $4.40M 2 years | $5.39M 2 years | 1.08 | $7.87M 2 years |
| Nick Foligno | 34 | 2021 | 12-33 (49GP) | 17-42 (957GP) | 15-38 | $3.80M 2 years | $4.08M 2 years | 1.07 | $7.84M 2 years |
| Daniel Briere | 36 | 2013 | 14-39 (34GP) | 28-64 (847GP) | 21-52 | $4.00M 2 years | $5.44M 2 years | 1.05 | $7.64M 2 years |
| Justin Williams | 36 | 2017 | 25-49 (80GP) | 21-52 (1080GP) | 23-51 | $4.50M 2 years | $5.25M 2 years | 1.03 | $7.51M 2 years |
| Mikko Koivu | 35 | 2018 | 18-59 (80GP) | 17-60 (843GP) | 18-60 | $5.50M 2 years | $6.05M 2 years | 1.01 | $7.36M 2 years |
| Matt Cullen | 37 | 2013 | 14-53 (42GP) | 15-43 (1073GP) | 15-48 | $3.50M 2 years | $4.76M 2 years | 0.99 | $7.24M 2 years |
| Justin Williams | 34 | 2015 | 18-42 (81GP) | 20-52 (918GP) | 19-47 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.98M 2 years | 0.85 | $6.19M 2 years |
| David Perron | 34 | 2022 | 33-70 (67GP) | 23-56 (973GP) | 28-63 | $4.75M 2 years | $5.04M 2 years | 0.80 | $5.84M 2 years |
| Mike Ribeiro | 35 | 2015 | 15-62 (82GP) | 19-62 (947GP) | 17-62 | $3.50M 2 years | $4.29M 2 years | 0.69 | $5.05M 2 years |
| **Eric Staal | 35 | 2019 | 24-54 (62GP) | 29-68 (1155GP) | 27-61 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.49M 2 years | 0.57 | $4.18M 2 years |
| **Jeff Carter | 37 | 2022 | 27-59 (36GP) | 30-57 (1130GP) | 29-58 | $3.13M 2 years | $3.32M 2 years | 0.57 | $4.18M 2 years |
| Marcus Johansson | 33 | 2023 | 19-47 (80GP) | 16-45 (833GP) | 18-46 | $2.00M 2 years | $2.10M 2 years | 0.46 | $3.33M 2 years |
Of the comparables, eight of the 14 contracts projected Kopitar at $7.25 or above on a two-year deal. We can actually also see a pretty defined range of projections from about $7.25M to $7.85M, with six different projections putting Kopitar in that range.
Mikko Koivu in particular is a great comp. He was still producing very well as a center in his mid 30s, and was the captain of the Minnesota Wild at the time of re-signing. That contract would’ve projected Kopitar at $7.36M per year on a two-year deal.
So while there are some comps that would’ve put Kopitar a lot lower, the center’s $7M cap hit still comes in on the middle-to-low end of where comparables would’ve had him on a two-year deal.
1 YEAR
Considering Kopitar will already be 37 years old by the first year of this extension, a one-year deal was possible. That said, it’s pretty difficult to determine where we could’ve expected it to come in, if the teams opted for a single-year extension instead.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $87.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Anze Kopitar | 37 | 2024 | 28-74 (82GP) | 125-72 (991GP) | 27-73 | ||||
| Joe Thornton | 38 | 2017 | 7-52 (79GP) | 22-79 (1446GP) | 15-66 | $8.00M 1 year | $9.33M 1 year | 1.41 | $10.32M 1 year |
| Nick Foligno | 36 | 2023 | 14-36 (60GP) | 16-40 (1081GP) | 15-38 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.19M 1 year | 1.10 | $8.05M 1 year |
| Joe Thornton | 39 | 2018 | 23-63 (47GP) | 22-78 (1493GP) | 23-71 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.50M 1 year | 0.78 | $5.66M 1 year |
| Paul Stastny | 35 | 2021 | 19-42 (56GP) | 22-62 (1001GP) | 21-52 | $3.75M 1 year | $4.03M 1 year | 0.77 | $5.65M 1 year |
| Joe Thornton | 40 | 2019 | 18-57 (73GP) | 22-77 (1566GP) | 20-67 | $2.00M 1 year | $2.15M 1 year | 0.31 | $2.34M 1 year |
Looking at the sample of players who took one-year deals around Kopitar’s age without performance bonuses, the projections are a little all over the place.
My guess would be that a one-year deal would’ve cost the Kings at least $7M per year, if not even more, based on reduced risk. I think somewhere in a range of Kopitar’s $7M cap hit to the $8M that was both signed by Joe Thornton at a similar age in 2017, and projected by Foligno’s payment rate probably would’ve been the realistic number on any one-year deal.
Final Analysis
By most comparables, Kopitar’s $7M cap hit on a two-year deal is fair value. It arguably even comes in below the range projected by several comps as well, which would’ve had him between $7.25M and $7.85M at that length.
The length also comes in at an expected range. While he could’ve gone as short as a single year or as long as three, or even four years, a two-year deal had the most comps for the center.
Extending a player a year out always carries a bit of risk, but at just two years, this deal has limited potential to cause the Kings any major cap harm. Even if there’s a chance Kopitar could see a decline at some point, it’s hard to argue with the price they paid on the deal.
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment