After re-tearing his Achilles tendon, Pacioretty’s injury history will be a key factor as he hits free agency.
Player Overview
Beginning his career with the Montreal Canadiens, Max Pacioretty established himself as one of the team’s best forwards of the 2010s. In a time where scoring was at a minimum, Pacioretty was consistently good for about 30-35 goals and 65 points per year, and spent three years as Montreal’s captain.
However, the winger was dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2018, as the team looked to bulk up after their unexpected run to the Stanley Cup Finals. After somewhat of a disappointing first year with the team, Pacioretty rebounded to post the best numbers of his career between 2019-20 and 2020-21, scoring at a pace of 39 goals and 81 points per 82 across the two seasons.
But after missing more than half the 2021-22 season due to an injury, Pacioretty was shipped off to the Carolina Hurricanes in a cap-dump trade.
Almost as soon as the Hurricanes traded for him, it was announced Pacioretty needed surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon and would miss extended time. But then after working towards a recovery and getting into Carolina’s lineup in January, Pacioretty re-tore his Achilles after only five game, ending his season yet again.
While Pacioretty can certainly score, he won’t be able to play with much speed at all at this point and his injury troubles have resulted in a huge hit to his value.
| Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
| 2008-09 | 20 | MTL | NHL | 34 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 5.3 | 95 | 429 | 12:37 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 19 | 44 | 16 | 16 | |
| 2009-10 | 21 | MTL | NHL | 52 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -5 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 74 | 4.1 | 153 | 661 | 12:43 | 1 | 6 | 14.3 | 25 | 68 | 20 | 19 | |
| 2010-11 | 22 | MTL | NHL | 37 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -1 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 12.5 | 188 | 588 | 15:54 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 13 | 67 | 20 | 10 | |
| 2011-12 | 23 | MTL | NHL | 79 | 33 | 32 | 65 | 2 | 56 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 286 | 11.5 | 468 | 1443 | 18:16 | 1 | 4 | 20.0 | 39 | 104 | 33 | 36 | Masterton-1 |
| 2012-13 | 24 | MTL | NHL | 44 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 163 | 9.2 | 277 | 726 | 16:31 | 2 | 5 | 28.6 | 16 | 59 | 24 | 12 | |
| 2013-14 | 25 | MTL | NHL | 73 | 39 | 21 | 60 | 8 | 35 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 270 | 14.4 | 464 | 1350 | 18:29 | 6 | 4 | 60.0 | 33 | 69 | 28 | 18 | AS-5 |
| 2014-15 | 26 | MTL | NHL | 80 | 37 | 30 | 67 | 38 | 32 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 302 | 12.3 | 561 | 1552 | 19:24 | 2 | 7 | 22.2 | 38 | 106 | 43 | 43 | AS-4,Byng-65,Selke-6 |
| 2015-16 | 27 | MTL | NHL | 82 | 30 | 34 | 64 | -10 | 34 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 303 | 9.9 | 539 | 1519 | 18:32 | 6 | 7 | 46.2 | 37 | 102 | 35 | 33 | Byng-38,Selke-22 |
| 2016-17 | 28 | MTL | NHL | 81 | 35 | 32 | 67 | 15 | 38 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 268 | 13.1 | 500 | 1553 | 19:11 | 27 | 23 | 54.0 | 35 | 63 | 44 | 47 | AS-4,Byng-28 |
| 2017-18 | 29 | MTL | NHL | 64 | 17 | 20 | 37 | -16 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 212 | 8.0 | 391 | 1217 | 19:01 | 7 | 13 | 35.0 | 27 | 118 | 24 | 40 | |
| 2018-19 | 30 | VEG | NHL | 66 | 22 | 18 | 40 | -13 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 11.5 | 335 | 1122 | 17:00 | 21 | 31 | 40.4 | 20 | 119 | 39 | 38 | |
| 2019-20 | 31 | VEG | NHL | 71 | 32 | 34 | 66 | 18 | 44 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 307 | 10.4 | 549 | 1272 | 17:55 | 51 | 45 | 53.1 | 35 | 90 | 32 | 55 | AS-6,Byng-42 |
| 2020-21 | 32 | VEG | NHL | 48 | 24 | 27 | 51 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 174 | 13.8 | 285 | 861 | 17:56 | 20 | 23 | 46.5 | 29 | 33 | 15 | 17 | AS-11,Byng-52 |
| 2021-22 | 33 | VEG | NHL | 39 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 8 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 148 | 12.8 | 262 | 678 | 17:23 | 2 | 7 | 22.2 | 21 | 30 | 15 | 23 | |
| 2022-23 | 34 | CAR | NHL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 18.8 | 34 | 68 | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 10 yrs | MTL | NHL | 626 | 226 | 222 | 448 | 36 | 339 | 164 | 55 | 7 | 45 | 162 | 57 | 3 | 2047 | 11.0 | 3636 | 11038 | 17:38 | 53 | 71 | 42.7 | 282 | 800 | 287 | 274 | ||
| 4 yrs | VEG | NHL | 224 | 97 | 97 | 194 | 33 | 127 | 75 | 22 | 0 | 20 | 68 | 29 | 0 | 820 | 11.8 | 1431 | 3933 | 17:33 | 94 | 106 | 47.0 | 105 | 272 | 101 | 133 | ||
| 1 yr | CAR | NHL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 18.8 | 34 | 68 | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Career | 15 yrs | NHL | 855 | 326 | 319 | 645 | 69 | 468 | 241 | 78 | 7 | 65 | 230 | 86 | 3 | 2883 | 11.3 | 5101 | 15039 | 17:35 | 147 | 177 | 45.4 | 388 | 1076 | 389 | 409 | ||
What We Know
- The Hurricanes reportedly granted Pacioretty permission to speak to other teams ahead of free agency opening on Saturday.
- Frank Seravalli reported there is “significant interest” in Pacioretty from teams around the league.
Comparables
For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
Considering Pacioretty’s recent injury history, a one-year deal is by far the most likely scenario for the winger.
1 YEAR
There’s the possibility that Pacioretty could just take a one-year deal outright, with no bonuses included. Some comparables for players around his age are below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Pacioretty | 35 | 2023 | 5GP | 31-62 (1067GP) | 31-62 | ||||
| Joe Thornton | 38 | 2017 | 7-52 (79GP) | 22-79 (1446GP) | 15-66 | $8.00M 1 year | $8.91M 1 year | 1.35 | $8.37M 1 year |
| Nick Foligno | 36 | 2023 | 14-36 (60GP) | 16-40 (1081GP) | 15-38 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.00M 1 year | 1.05 | $6.51M 1 year |
| Corey Perry | 38 | 2023 | 12-25 (81GP) | 27-58 (1257GP) | 20-42 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.00M 1 year | 0.95 | $5.89M 1 year |
| Joe Thornton | 39 | 2018 | 23-63 (47GP) | 22-78 (1493GP) | 23-71 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.25M 1 year | 0.74 | $4.59M 1 year |
| Paul Stastny | 35 | 2021 | 19-42 (56GP) | 22-62 (1001GP) | 21-52 | $3.75M 1 year | $3.84M 1 year | 0.74 | $4.59M 1 year |
| Joe Thornton | 40 | 2019 | 18-57 (73GP) | 22-77 (1566GP) | 20-67 | $2.00M 1 year | $2.05M 1 year | 0.31 | $1.92M 1 year |
| Phil Kessel | 25 | 2022 | 8-52 (82GP) | 27-65 (1204GP) | 18-59 | $1.50M 1 year | $1.52M 1 year | 0.26 | $1.61M 1 year |
However, these players weren’t coming off the same injury trouble that Pacioretty’s had. Few teams would be willing to risk Pacioretty going down with an injury after accounting his cap hit towards their available space.
As a result, it’s much more likely we see a deal with performance bonuses for Pacioretty which would keep the cap hit low but raise the AAV, likely based on games played targets.
Below, we listed out some examples of players taking deals that carried a low cap hit but were very heavy on performance bonuses. Each player’s cap hit and AAV have been adjusted to an $83.5M cap in the ‘Adjusted’ columns, with the applicable projection for Pacioretty’s deal on the far right.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | Adjusted Cap Hit | Payment Rate (Cap Hit) | AAV | Adjusted AAV | Payment Rate (AAV) | Projected Cap Hit | Projected AAV |
| Max Pacioretty | 35 | 2023 | 5GP | 31-62 (1067GP) | 31-62 | ||||||||
| Daniel Alfredsson | 41 | 2013 | 17-45 (47GP) | 30-77 (1178GP) | 24-61 | $3.50M | $4.55M | 0.75 | $5.50M | $7.14M | 1.17 | $4.65M | $7.25M |
| Ryan Getzlaf | 36 | 2021 | 9-29 (48GP) | 21-73 (1101GP) | 15-53 | $3.00M | $3.07M | 0.58 | $4.50M | $4.61M | 0.87 | $3.60M | $5.39M |
| *Joe Pavelski | 39 | 2023 | 26-80 (38GP) | 26-80 (38GP) | 28-73 | $3.50M | $3.50M | 0.48 | $5.50M | $5.50M | 0.75 | $2.98M | $4.65M |
| Patrice Bergeron | 37 | 2022 | 28-73 (73GP) | 27-66 (1216GP) | 28-70 | $2.50M | $2.53M | 0.36 | $5.00M | $5.06M | 0.71 | $2.23M | $4.40M |
| Corey Perry | 34 | 2019 | 16-26 (31GP) | 31-64 (988GP) | 24-45 | $1.50M | $1.54M | 0.34 | $3.25M | $3.33M | 0.74 | $2.10M | $4.59M |
| Jarome Iginla | 36 | 2013 | 26-62 (44GP) | 34-74 (1232GP) | 30-68 | $1.80M | $2.34M | 0.34 | $6.00M | $7.79M | 1.15 | $2.10M | $7.13M |
| David Krejci | 36 | 2022 | – | 18-62 (962GP) | – | $1.00M | $1.01M | – | $3.00M | $3.04M | – | – | – |
While the comparables provide a range of projections, to me, the best one by far is David Krejci’s deal. Pacioretty and Krejci had the exact same career points-per-82 average at the time of signing. But more importantly, Krejci had also spent the year before signing back in Czechia, and at 36 years old, the Bruins had no idea if he’d still be able to keep up at the NHL level upon returning.
So while many projections would have Pacioretty higher than Krejci’s deal, those players didn’t miss their entire contract year.
Projection
Pacioretty is extremely likely to end up on a low-cost, one-year deal.
While it’s possible we could see a deal with no bonuses, it’s much more likely we see Pacioretty on a deal similar to Krejci, where the forward had a low cap hit with a lot more in performances bonuses to inflate his AAV.
| Projected Cap Hit | Projected AAV |
| $1.00M | $3.00M |
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