After rebuilding his value, what could Gostisbehere make in free agency?
Player Overview
Shayne Gostisbehere came out of nowhere to explode onto the NHL scene in 2015 with the Philadelphia Flyers. The defenseman posted 46 points in 64 games as a 22-year-old rookie, on route to a second-place finish in Calder Trophy voting (ahead of Connor McDavid).
Gostisbehere sustained his impact over the next two years, even upping his production for the 2017-18 season to post 65 points in 78 games. As a result, he ended up 10th in Norris Trophy voting and it seemed like the blue liner was set for a tremendous career.
Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
2014-15 | 21 | PHI | NHL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 6 | 25 | 12:34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
2015-16 | 22 | PHI | NHL | 64 | 17 | 29 | 46 | 8 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 152 | 11.2 | 341 | 1286 | 20:05 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 59 | 27 | 28 | 51 | AR-1,AS-16,Byng-70,Calder-2,Norris-17 |
2016-17 | 23 | PHI | NHL | 76 | 7 | 32 | 39 | -21 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 198 | 3.5 | 445 | 1489 | 19:36 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 43 | 18 | 70 | ||
2017-18 | 24 | PHI | NHL | 78 | 13 | 52 | 65 | 10 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 221 | 5.9 | 458 | 1674 | 21:27 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 53 | 23 | 52 | AS-9,Byng-49,Norris-10 | |
2018-19 | 25 | PHI | NHL | 78 | 9 | 28 | 37 | -20 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 180 | 5.0 | 375 | 1533 | 19:40 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 46 | 20 | 53 | ||
2019-20 | 26 | PHI | NHL | 42 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 73 | 6.8 | 148 | 768 | 18:18 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 14 | 9 | 27 | ||
2020-21 | 27 | PHI | NHL | 41 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 85 | 10.6 | 189 | 818 | 19:56 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 18 | 10 | 24 | ||
2021-22 | 28 | ARI | NHL | 82 | 14 | 37 | 51 | -23 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 151 | 9.3 | 314 | 1820 | 22:11 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 60 | 44 | 78 | ||
2022-23 | 29 | TOT | NHL | 75 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -5 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 155 | 8.4 | 334 | 1561 | 20:49 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 46 | 32 | 55 | ||
2022-23 | 29 | ARI | NHL | 52 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -6 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 115 | 8.7 | 228 | 1170 | 22:30 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 36 | 24 | 45 | ||
2022-23 | 29 | CAR | NHL | 23 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 7.5 | 106 | 391 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 10 | ||
7 yrs | PHI | NHL | 381 | 60 | 159 | 219 | -31 | 129 | 33 | 27 | 0 | 11 | 80 | 79 | 0 | 911 | 6.6 | 1962 | 7593 | 19:56 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 456 | 201 | 109 | 280 | ||
2 yrs | ARI | NHL | 134 | 24 | 58 | 82 | -29 | 54 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 24 | 0 | 266 | 9.0 | 542 | 2990 | 22:19 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 96 | 68 | 123 | |||
1 yr | CAR | NHL | 23 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 7.5 | 106 | 391 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 10 | |||
Career | 9 yrs | NHL | 538 | 87 | 224 | 311 | -59 | 187 | 51 | 34 | 2 | 15 | 118 | 106 | 0 | 1217 | 7.1 | 2610 | 10974 | 20:24 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 660 | 307 | 185 | 413 |
However, things started to go a bit south from there, with his production and usage slipping quite a bit in the next few years. He was playing less than 20 minutes per game and his production was down around 40 points per 82.
By 2021, the Flyers had seen enough and paid both a second-round pick and seventh round-pick, just for the Arizona Coyotes to take Gostisbehere and his $4.5M cap hit.
But playing on a weak Coyotes team, Gostisbehere was able to rebuild his value, playing more than 22 minutes per game and reaching 51 points in his first season with the Coyotes in the 2021-22. Then this past season, he repeated his success with Arizona and ended up being acquired by the Carolina Hurricanes at the trade deadline for a third-round pick.
Primarily an offensive defenseman, Gostisbehere fit in well on the Hurricanes blue line, paired with Jalen Chatfield. He was tasked with a fairly sheltered, third-pairing role based on the team’s defensive depth, but he was perfectly fine defensively as well.
If he ends up heading to a team who can pair him with a quality, shutdown defender and not put him in a situation where he’s counted for too much, there’s reason to believe Gostisbehere can be an effective 4/5 defenseman over the next few years, potentially to round out a top-four group.
What We Know
- With Jaccob Slavin and Brady Skjei on the left side of Carolina’s defense group, it’s unlikely the team re-signs him just to pay him as a third-pairing defender.
- It’s also being reported the Hurricanes are likely to re-acquire Tony DeAngelo, which would likely confirm Gostisbehere’s departure.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.
Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
4 YEARS
It wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see Gostisbehere find a four-year contract in free agency, but it’s probably the longest deal he could get.
Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
Shayne Gostisbehere | 30 | 2023 | 45 (75GP) | 54 (538GP) | 20:49 | 20:24 | ||
Kevin Shattenkirk | 28 | 2017 | 57 (80GP) | 50 (490GP) | 19:56 | 21:06 | $6.65M 4 years | $7.40M 4 years |
T.J. Brodie | 30 | 2021 | 24 (64GP) | 34 (634GP) | 20:27 | 22:35 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
Jake Gardiner | 29 | 2019 | 40 (62GP) | 36 (551GP) | 21:13 | 21:21 | $4.05M 4 years | $4.15M 4 years |
Based on some of the comparables, Gostisbehere likely would be nowhere near Shattenkirk’s $7.4M adjusted cap bit, based on production that was quite a bit lower in his signing year. That said, he could certainly come in above Jake Gardiner’s contract, with higher production both in his signing year and over his career. I’d also ague that Gostisbehere’s reputation defensively may be better now than Gardiner’s was at the time of signing as well.
So with Gostisbehere worth more than Gardiner’s $4.15M adjusted cap hit, the question would be how much higher he could go.
T.J. Brodie acts as a very solid comparable, even if the production was quite different. They played similar minutes in their respective contract years, and are/were both 30 years old in the first year if their contract. Brodie did have a better reputation defensively, and also played a larger role throughout his career, while Gostisbehere is coming off a third-pairing role with the Hurricanes.
As a result, I’m not sure Gostisbehere would get quite up to a $5M cap hit, but he could get somewhat close, likely in the range of his current $4.5M cap hit. Again, a four-year deal probably isn’t the most likely term for Gostisbehere, given he’s been forced to rebuild his value recently, but it is possible.
3 YEARS
A three-year deal could be the most realistic length for Gostisbehere’s next deal.
Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
Shayne Gostisbehere | 30 | 2023 | 45 (75GP) | 54 (538GP) | 20:49 | 20:24 | ||
Mike Green | 30 | 2015 | 51 (72GP) | 51 (575GP) | 19:06 | 22:11 | $6.00M 3 years | $7.02M 3 years |
Tyson Barrie | 30 | 2021 | 70 (56GP) | 53 (610GP) | 21:24 | 21:45 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years |
Kevin Shattenkirk | 31 | 2020 | 40 (70GP) | 46 (679GP) | 18:54 | 20:35 | $3.90M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years |
Mike Reilly | 28 | 2021 | 40 (55GP) | 25 (259GP) | 19:17 | 16:43 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.07M 3 years |
Determining a range for that possible length, Gostisbehere is pretty much certainly below Green’s $7M, but based on production and ice time, he should also be well above Mike Reilly $3M cap hit.
The best comps would be Barrie and Shattenkirk. Both found some success in rebuilding their value, following a tough year or two that damaged that value. Barrie’s adjusted cap hit was $4.6M, but he also had lower production and ice time in his signing year. So there’s nothing really pointing to the fact that Gostisbehere should be up around that range.
At the same time, he should be above Shattenkirk’s $4M adjusted cap hit, based on both production and ice time. Shattenkirk.
So we can be reasonably sure Gostisbehere should be somewhere between $4M and $4.5M on a three-year contract.
2 YEARS
Two years is less likely than both a three and four-year deal for Gostisbehere, but it is probably the shortest possible deal we’d see for the defenseman.
Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
Shayne Gostisbehere | 30 | 2023 | 45 (75GP) | 54 (538GP) | 20:49 | 20:24 | ||
Justin Schultz | 30 | 2020 | 21 (46GP) | 36 (482GP) | 19:53 | 20:55 | $4.00M 2 years | $4.10M 2 years |
Cody Franson | 28 | 2015 | 38 (78GP) | 35 (400GP) | 19:38 | 17:32 | $3.33M 2 years | $3.89M 2 years |
Justin Schultz | 32 | 2022 | 25 (74GP) | 36 (602GP) | 16:55 | 20:17 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.00M 2 years |
Colin Miller | 30 | 2022 | 30 (38GP) | 29 (387GP) | 18:59 | 17:58 | $1.85M 1 year | $1.87M 1 year |
The comps used aren’t necessarily the best, given most defensemen at Gostisbehere’s age and production wouldn’t be taking a two-year deal.
Gostisbehere had higher production and usage than every defenseman listed here, both in his signing year and over his career. So by all standards, Gostisbehere should be quite a ways above the projections, higher than $4M per year.
While he was quite a bit younger, one comparable that I’d use is Tony DeAngelo’s deal last offseason.
Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
Shayne Gostisbehere | 30 | 2023 | 45 (75GP) | 54 (538GP) | 20:49 | 20:24 | ||
Tony DeAngelo | 27 | 2022 | 65 (46GP) | 48 (482GP) | 19:49 | 18:46 | $5.00M 2 years | $5.06M 2 years |
While DeAngelo had higher signing year production, Gostisbehere had better production throughout his career and more ice time. DeAngelo was also fresh off a one-year contract following a buy out, so it was another case of a defenseman rebuilding value.
If Gostisbehere is going to take a two-year deal, it’s likely because it’ll come with a higher cap hit than a three or four-year deal would. So while a two-year contract for Gostisbehere is unlikely, we could see it reach $5M per year.
Projection
Entering free agency, a three or four-year deal is most likely for Gostisbehere.
Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
3 Years | $4.33M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
4 Years | $4.50M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
While a two-year deal is unlikely, it’s also possible.
Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
2 Years | $5.00M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
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