Andersen is one of a few veteran goaltenders who could hit free agency this year.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Frederik Andersen originally burst into the NHL about a decade ago with the Anaheim Ducks. Despite three very good years in Anaheim to begin his career though, Andersen fell victim to the Ducks having an even younger option in net, with John Gibson. As a result, the netminder was shipped to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016.

In Toronto, Andersen established himself as a bonafide, high-end starter, hitting 60 starts in his first three years with the Maple Leafs and managing at least a .917 save percentage each year. This also came despite playing behind a less-than-stellar defense group at the time.

However, his play did see a drop off in the 2019-20 season, where he managed just a .909 save percentage, before a really tough 2021 year, which marked the end of his tenure with the Maple Leafs.

Hitting free agency in 2021, Andersen signed a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes, and the results couldn’t have been better in Year One. The netminder had a complete resurgence, posting a .922 save percentage through 52 games, leading to a fourth-place finish in Vezina Trophy voting.

Things weren’t necessarily as smooth in the back half of the deal though, as Andersen struggled to stay healthy this past season and didn’t have the same impact when he did play. He got into just 34 games and managed only a .903 save percentage. While he did end up taking back the starting role for Carolina in the playoffs, the netminder isn’t set up for the same kind of contract as if he had been able to replicate his 2021-22 season.

Now with the emergence of Pyotr Kochetkov, along with Andersen’s injury history and a separate UFA decision for the Hurricanes to make on goalie Antti Raanta, it’s very much up in the air as to whether Andersen is back in Carolina next season

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What We Know

• Andersen has reportedly been in talks with the Hurricanes about a potential extension.
• With Pyotr Kochetkov’s four-year deal set to kick in for Carolina next season, it’s almost certain the Hurricanes won’t bring back both of Andersen and Raanta.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what a contract could look like for Andersen at various lengths.

3 Years

From what I can see, there hasn’t been a single goalie older than 33 years old who signed a deal for more than three years over the last decade.

Looking at comparable contracts though, even a three-year deal for Andersen seems fairly unlikely.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Started in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $83.5M cap
Frederik Andersen	34	2023	903 (34GP)	41%	915 (479GP)
Ryan Miller	34	2014	918 (59GP)	72%	915 (559GP)	$6.00M 3 years	$7.26M 3 years
Marc-Andre Fleury	35	2019	927 (46GP)	56%	913 (737GP)	$7.00M 3 years	$7.13M 3 years
Antti Niemi	32	2015	914 (61GP)	74%	916 (338GP)	$4.50M 3 years	$5.26M 3 years
Craig Anderson	34	2015	911 (53GP)	65%	915 (371GP)	$4.20M 3 years	$4.91M 3 years
Cam Talbot	33	2020	919 (26GP)	37%	915 (314GP)	$3.67M 3 years	$3.76M 3 years
Anton Khudobin	34	2020	930 (30GP)	43%	919 (218GP)	$3.33M 3 years	$3.41M 3 years
Carter Hutton	33	2018	931 (32GP)	39%	915 (138GP)	$2.75M 3 years	$2.89M 3 years

All of the goalies who received the high-paying, three-year deals had two things going for them: a save percentage of .911 or higher, and playing at least 56% of their team’s games in their signing year. Andersen had neither.

Even for the fringe starters or backups in Talbot, Khudobin and Hutton, each goalie had a very high save percentage (at least a .919). So while they did play a similar number of games to Andersen in the year prior to signing, the save percentages really aren’t comparable. As a result, there aren’t any comparables that would justify a three-year deal for the netminder at his age.

Especially given Andersen’s injury history, the only way I see him getting a three-year deal is if it comes in very low, perhaps around a $3M cap hit or only slightly higher.

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2 YEARS

Two years is by far the most likely term for Andersen’s next deal, based on comparable deals.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Started in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $83.5M cap
Frederik Andersen	34	2023	903 (34GP)	41%	915 (479GP)
**Pekka Rinne	37	2019	929 (66GP)	72%	919 (574GP)	$5.00M 2 years	$5.12M 2 years
Craig Anderson	37	2018	926 (40GP)	49%	916 (506GP)	$4.75M 2 years	$4.99M 2 years
Jonas Hiller	32	2014	911 (50GP)	61%	916 (326GP)	$4.50M 2 years	$5.45M 2 years
Frederik Andersen	32	2021	895 (24GP)	43%	915 (393GP)	$4.50M 2 years	$4.61M 2 years
Jonathan Bernier	33	2021	914 (24GP)	43%	913 (394GP)	$4.13M 2 years	$4.23M 2 years
Corey Crawford	36	2020	917 (40GP)	49%	918 (488GP)	$3.90M 2 years	$4.00M 2 years
Jake Allen	33	2023	905 (35GP)	43%	911 (353GP)	$3.85M 2 years	$3.85M 2 years
Cam Ward	32	2016	909 (52GP)	63%	910 (564GP)	$3.30M 2 years	$3.77M 2 yeas
Thomas Greiss	34	2020	913 (31GP)	44%	915 (282GP)	$3.60M 2 years	$3.69M 2 years
Marc-Andre Fleury	38	2022	908 (56GP)	68%	913 (939GP)	$3.50M 2 years	$3.54M 2 years
Brian Elliott	32	2017	909 (43GP)	52%	913 (415GP)	$2.75M 2 years	$3.06M 2 years
Jaroslav Halak	33	2018	908 (54GP)	66%	916 (449GP)	$2.75M 2 years	$2.89M 2 years
Anton Khudobin	32	2018	913 (31GP)	38%	915 (147GP)	$2.50M 2 years	$2.63M 2 years
James Reimer	33	2021	906 (22GP)	39%	913 (385GP)	$2.25M 2 years	$2.31M 2 years
Mike Smith	39	2021	923 (32GP)	57%	912 (642GP)	$2.20M 2 years	$2.25M 2 years
Ryan Miller	37	2017	914 (54GP)	66%	915 (709GP)	$2.00M 2 years	$2.23M 2 years

While the price range for a deal isn’t crystal clear, we have a good idea of where it may come in. When looking at the deals with the highest cap hit, each of Rinne, Anderson and Hiller had either a great year before signing, played a lot of games, or both. So we can definitely count out Andersen from the $5M+ range and realistically, making more than he did on his last deal is unlikely.

Many may look at Andersen’s last deal though at a $4.50M cap hit and say this is the best predictor for his next contract, in that he’ll just get an identical deal. While this is possible, I think it’s far from a guarantee.

Andersen was only 32 years old for the first year of his last contract, but will be 34 years old for the first year of this deal. While a two-year gap in age may not make much of a difference from someone aged 26 and someone aged 28, once you get into the mid-30s, it starts to matter.

Look at Marc-Andre Fleury, for example. He won the Vezina in 2021, played nearly 60 games the following season, then still signed for $3.50M at 38 years old in 2022. This was even less than Thomas Greiss made when he signed only two years earlier at 34 years old, despite Greiss never being a true starting goalie.

The other factor is games played in a signing year. As much as one could argue a lack of games played in a signing year shouldn’t make a huge difference if the goalie is an intended starter, in this case, it could be a factor. Andersen has become relatively injury prone at this point and a team signing him will have to factor that in.

To me, we have a pretty clear range here from very recent contracts: Bernier’s $4.23M adjusted cap hit on the high end and Fleury’s $3.50M cap hit on the low end. Jake Allen in particular is a great example of someone with very comparable stats and percentage of games played in his signing year, at a $3.85M cap hit.

So while it’s possible Andersen could get another two-year deal up around $4.50M, the more likely scenario is that he ends up taking a pay cut and making about $4M per year.

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1 YEAR

Andersen is likely to get offered either a two-year deal if he hits free agency. At this point in his career, it also doesn’t make a ton of sense to pass up on a deal with more term.

However, his injury history could scare teams and there are a couple examples of starters/fringe starters around his age who ended up on a one-year deal instead.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Started in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $83.5M cap
Frederik Andersen	34	2023	903 (34GP)	41%	915 (479GP)
*Jimmy Howard	35	2019	908 (48GP)	67%	914 (516GP)	$4.00M 1 year	$4.10M 1 year
Cam Ward	34	2018	906 (43GP)	52%	909 (668GP)	$3.00M 1 year	$3.15M 1 year
Jaroslav Halak	35	2020	919 (31GP)	44%	916 (520GP)	$2.25M 1 year	$2.31M 1 year
Mike Smith	37	2019	898 (42GP)	51%	912 (571GP)	$2.00M 1 year	$2.05M 1 year
Mike Smith	38	2020	902 (39GP)	56%	911 (610GP)	$1.50M 1 year	$1.54M 1 year

Again, it’s unlikely we see Andersen on a one-year deal. The only way it could make sense is if he’s offered a one-year deal at a much higher cap hit than his offers for a two-year deal, and bets on himself having a good season to then also get paid well on a new deal in 2024. Either that, or he prioritizes staying in Carolina, or heading to a specific team, and would be willing to sacrifice term if more than a one-year deal wasn’t offered from that team.

Of the comparable contracts for a one-year deal, we’re probably looking at a similar range to a two-year deal. Mike Smith was quite a bit older than Andersen when he signed his deals, which likely lowered his price. But Howard, Ward and Halak were either 1A or 1B goalies when they signed their deals, so we can see a likely range for a deal.

With Halak specifically, while his cap hit was only $2.25M, his AAV was $3.50M based on a performance bonus when he hit 10 games, which he did. So we’d likely be looking at a range of $3.15M to $4.10M on a one-year deal, between the comparable contracts for Howard and Ward (likely coming in on the higher end).

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Projection

A two-year contract is the most likely outcome for Andersen, based on comparable deals:

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
2 years	$4.00M	$4.50M	$3.50M

As for other potential lengths, a one-year deal or three-year deal is also possible, but less likely.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
3 years	$3.00M	$3.75M	$2.90M
1 year	$4.00M	$4.25M	$3.25M