Over the last two years, HockeyComparables.co released contract projections for players on expiring contracts, leading up to free agency in 2023 and 2024. Detailed results for each year of projections are below:
Summary of Results
Results for contracts signed at different lengths are below (results combined from 2023 and 2024). The table includes the number of players who signed at a term for which a projection was completed, along with the error percentage comparing the projected cap hit to actual cap hit at that term.
| TERM | SAMPLE SIZE | ERROR % |
| 8 | 3 | 5.4 |
| 7 | 7 | 5.2 |
| 6 | 5 | 11.3 |
| 5 | 4 | 6.3 |
| 4 | 8 | 10.3 |
| 3 | 24 | 17.2 |
| *2 | 99 | 19.5 |
| *1 | 128 | 47.3 |
The table also does not include contracts in which there was no projection done for the signing term.
The table above does not include any players who were expected to sign a deal for one or two years, at less than a $1 million cap hit. Any players for which this was the projection received a designation of ‘<$1.00M x 1/2’ for their projection. Across two years of projections, 216 players have been given this designation for their projection, and only 10 of them have signed a deal at a cap hit of $1 million or higher, for either one or two years.
Of the 450 contracts which were signed for which a projection had been completed, 42 of them were signed at a length that was not projected.
For a detailed breakdown of how each individual contract projection compared to the actual contract signed, please view the contract projection results from either 2023 or 2024.
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