Knies signed a long-term extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed forward Matthew Knies to a six-year contract extension, which carries a $7.75M cap hit. The final year of the deal will also come with a partial no-trade clause, per PuckPedia.com.

Below, we examine how the deal looks for the Maple Leafs.

Player Overview

Selected in the second round of the 2021 NHL Draft, Matthew Knies spent the two following seasons with the University of Minnesota, before making the jump to professional hockey.

In his first full season with the Maple Leafs in 2023-24, Knies was a solid secondary contributor, posting 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games. This past season though, the winger took a huge step. Knies scored 29 goals and 58 points in 78 games, ranking top-five on the team in both categories.

Still only in his early 20s, Knies has the potential to become an incredibly important forward for the Maple Leafs over the length of his contract. The winger has already solidified himself as a very well-rounded player, as a hard-worker who can be very effective on the forecheck and play with physicality, while already being an asset defensively. Especially if Knies can continue to grow his production, he has the upside to become one of the better young forwards in the league.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Knies’ deal compares to recent contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page. With Knies turning 23 years old in October, the comparables used will generally be wingers who signed their deal coming off their entry-level contract, at a similar age. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

6 YEARS

We’ve seen a bit of a shift away from high-end wingers taking six-year deals over the last five years or so. Still, there are a good number of comparables from before that period, to help project Knies’ value on a six-year contract.

The table below uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Knies could’ve been expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

Aside from one outlier at the bottom of the table in Joel Farabee ($6.24M projection) and Mitch Marner on the high end ($8.26M projection), all seven of the other comps on the table would’ve projected for Knies to come in between $6.83M and $7.54M per year on a six-year deal. As a result, the Mitch Marner contract was the only deal that would’ve projected that Knies’ deal should’ve came in above the $7.55M mark.

Knies had extremely similar numbers to Jonathan Drouin, who signed his deal in 2017, and his contract would have projected Knies at $7.13M per year. Meanwhile, William Nylander had an identical signing year points-per-82 pace, and his deal would have projected Knies at the $7.54M mark, on the same cost-per-points basis.

While Knies scored goals at a higher rate than Nylander, the table also doesn’t necessarily point to the idea that more goals equals more money. Filip Forsberg had both a similar goals and points pace to Knies in his signing year, and his contract would have projected just under $7M per year for Knies on a six-year deal.

Of course, Knies is already a fairly well-rounded player, and his value won’t come strictly from his production. But the strong majority of comps on the table would have put his value below $7.75M per year on a six-year deal, with seven of the nine comps projecting Knies to come in between about $6.85M and $7.55M.

While Knies signed a six-year deal, below, we examine how a shorter or longer deal could have looked for Knies.

3 YEARS

If Knies had taken a three-year bridge deal, the four comps below would have projected his value to be between $5.35M and $6.27M per year.

While a bridge deal would have kept Knies’ cap hit lower short-term, it also would’ve meant he’d likely be set for an even bigger payday a few years down the road. So in going longer term, the Maple Leafs likely pay more over the first half of the contract, but ultimately end up saving money on the back half of the deal.

8 YEARS

If Knies had signed an eight-year deal, his cap hit would have came in higher than the $7.75M mark.

While only four of the seven comps below would have projected him to be above $8M per year, given what he signed for at six years, we know his number would’ve been higher on a maximum-term deal, which would have bought more UFA years.

The four higher comps on the table would have projected Knies to come in between about $8.25M and $9.10M per year on an eight-year contract. Especially considering Knies signed at a higher number than most comps would have projected for a six-year deal, we can also likely imagine it would’ve taken a number towards the upper end of that range to get an eight-year deal done.

Final Analysis

With a six-year deal, the Maple Leafs lock up Knies long-term, and buy some UFA years. At a $7.75M cap hit, Knies’ cap hit does come in a bit higher than expected, with the majority of comps projecting his value to be between $6.85M and $7.55M per year on a six-year contract.

That said, Knies has already emerged as a well-rounded winger, and especially if his production continues to grow, he has the ability to end up making the deal look very good for Toronto in the coming years.