What can Orlov make in free agency this year?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Selected in the second round of the 2009 NHL Draft, Dmitry Orlov joined the Washington Capitals for the 2011-12 season, became one of the team’s most important defenseman over the span of a decade with the team. By his mid-20s, Orlov was taking on over 20 minutes per game with the team consistently, and helped the Capitals to capture a Stanley Cup in 2017.

With the Capitals out of the playoff mix by the end of his contract with the team, he ended up being dealt to the Boston Bruins in 2023, before signing a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes that summer.

Now in his mid-30s, Orlov did see a bit of a dip in usage over two years with the Hurricanes. That said, he can still play in a top-four role, and paired with a reliable partner, Orlov can be a big add to a team’s defense group this summer.

What We Know

• Based on Alexander Nikishin and Scott Morrow likely to take roster spots with the Hurricanes next season, Orlov was not expected to re-sign in Carolina.

Comparables

Below, we predict what Orlov’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page. With Orlov turning 34 years old this month, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were over 32 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the tables represent their age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract, and each player’s cap hit has been adjusted to a $95.5M cap hit, shown in the far right of the table.

4 YEARS

Four years is likely the maximum term we’d see for Orlov’s next contract. While we’ve seen exceptions, it’s rare that a defender in their mid-30s would be able to get a deal with more term.

Based on the comps below, there’s a clear split between the Jeff Petry and Mattias Ekholm contracts, and the Ryan Suter and Oliver Ekman-Larsson contracts. Petry and Ekholm both had much higher usage than Orlov, so we can expect he wouldn’t land in this range on a four-year deal.

Meanwhile, Suter did have higher production and usage, but was also two years older and fresh off a buyout. Then with Ekman-Larsson, he had similar production in his signing year and higher career numbers, but lower signing year ice time and was also a year removed from a buyout. As a result, Suter and Ekman-Larsson were both arguably signing with a little bit less value than Orlov.

So while Orlov wouldn’t be near the $7M range and above from the adjusted cap hits of Petry and Ekholm, he should likely still be slightly above the range of Suter and Ekman-Larsson contracts, in the $5M range.

3 YEARS

While Orlov could potentially get more term, three years may be a more likely bet for his next contract, with comparables below.

Orlov is pretty clearly above Luke Schenn and Radko Gudas at the bottom of the table, while Tyler Myers seemingly took less to remain in Vancouver last year than he could’ve gotten elsewhere. The better comps would be Nick Jensen at a $4.6M adjusted cap hit, to Anton Stralman, at a $6.4M adjusted cap hit.

Comparing Orlov to Jensen, while the two players had fairly similar signing year numbers, Orlov’s career numbers were quite a bit better, pointing to Orlov being a little above this range.

Meanwhile, Orlov does compare very well to Stralman, with very similar numbers in all categories. But with Alec Martinez, while Orlov had very similar career numbers, Martinez did have a much better signing year. As a result, there’s an argument that the defender could fall somewhere between this range, likely between $5M and $6M per year.

Projection

A three or four-year deal would be most likely for Orlov, with projections below.