Will Giroux extend for a fourth season in Ottawa?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Across 15 years and 1000 regular season games, Claude Giroux became one of the most recognizable Philadelphia Flyers of the modern era. The forward hit 900 points in his time with the Flyers, and went on to be the longest-tenured captain in Flyers history.

After being traded to the Florida Panthers at the 2022 trade deadline, Giroux joined the Ottawa Senators on a three-year contract in the ensuing summer. Over his time in Ottawa, Giroux’s production has dipped each year, but he’s still proven to be a solid, top-six forward. Giroux is able to play either at center or on the wing, and remains a steady defensive presence as well.

If Giroux can’t get an extension done with the Senators, he’d be a solid short-term option in free agency.

What We Know

• According to Bruce Garrioch, Giroux is willing to take less that what he made last season to stay in Ottawa, and remaining with the Senators is his priority.
• Per Garrioch, the expectation would be that Giroux’s base salary could land in the $3M range, with bonuses bringing the AAV up to $4.5M to $5M.
• Per Pierre LeBrun, the negotiation with Ottawa is likely for a one-year deal.

Comparables

Below, we examine what Giroux’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page. With Giroux turning 37 years old in November, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were 35 years old or above at the time of signing. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

2 YEARS

Below is a list of comparables, to help project Giroux’s contract. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Giroux can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

We can likely expect that two years would be the longest possible deal for Giroux, with comparables below.

Projections on a two-year deal would have Giroux anywhere between $3.8M to $7.6M per year. At the same time, the highest cap hits of any of the comps listed would be Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar, who both had better production than Giroux. Meanwhile, all other contracts signed above came in at $4.5M or less, which point to the fact that this could be a more realistic range for Giroux.

Based on the projections, the Mats Zuccarello and Jeff Carter deals would be the only two to project Giroux below the $4.5M mark. With that range projecting Giroux between $3.8M and $4.2M per year, and the actual contracts of David Perron and Mats Zuccarello being signed right within that range as well, somewhere around $4M per year could be realistic, in the unlikely event that Giroux signs for two years.

1 YEAR

A one-year deal would be most likely for Giroux, with projections below ranging from $2.6M to $7.5M.

While the upper end of the projections do go quite high, seven of the nine comps would project Giroux at $5.3M or less. That said, there’s also a possibility that Giroux’s deal could end up factoring in performance bonuses, if it comes in as a one-year contract.

Below is a list of recent 35+ contracts for forwards which included performance bonuses. Each contract within the table has the cap hit and AAV associated with it adjusted to a $95.5M salary cap. These contracts can then be used to project what a one-year deal with bonuses could look like for Giroux, using the same cost-per-points basis.

Based on the comps below who would project Giroux to take a cap hit at less than $3M (even with bonuses included), three of the five were forwards who either didn’t play in the NHL the prior season (Jonathan Toews and David Krejci), and one who had played just five games in his signing year (Max Pacioretty). As a result, we can expect Giroux is probably above this range.

The deals slightly above that mark in Patrick Kane, Joe Pavelski and Ryan Getzlaf may be the more realistic range. These deals would project Giroux between a $3.25M and $4.1M cap hit, plus bonuses which would increase the AAV to around $5.3M.

So based on these comps, it’s possible that Giroux could end up on a deal with a cap hit of only just above $3M, but it could potentially come in with close to $2M worth of bonuses, to bring up the AAV above the $5M mark.

Projection

The most likely scenario for Giroux’s contract would be a one-year deal at a lower cap hit, which would factor in performance bonuses, resulting in a higher AAV.

In the unlikely event that Giroux ends up getting a two-year deal, the projection would be a $4M cap hit.