Kane remains a productive top-six winger, despite his age.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Selected first overall in 2007, Patrick Kane emerged as one of the NHL’s top talents, spending parts of 16 seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks. Over that time, Kane won three Stanley Cups (2010, 2013, 2015), the Calder Trophy (2008), the Conn Smythe Trophy (2013), and captured all of the Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, and Ted Lindsay Award in 2016.

With the Blackhawks entering a rebuild a couple of years ago though, Kane was eventually shipped to the New York Rangers at the trade deadline. He underwent a hip resurfacing procedure from there, which kept him out of action to start the 2023-24 season, but ended up signing with the Detroit Red Wings after the start of the season.

In his time with Detroit, Kane has managed to remain a very productive winger, despite his age. In 122 games with the Red Wings across two seasons, Kane has produced at an 82-game rate of 28 goals and 71 points.

While Kane will be turning 37 years old in November, he can still be an effective top-six winger. While it seems there’s still a good chance he could get an extension done in Detroit, there would surely be interest in Kane, if he does hit free agency.

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What We Know

• Patrick Kane stated at the end of the season that there ‘mutual interest’ in him returning to Detroit next season.

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Comparables

Below, we examine what Kane’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page. With Kane turning 37 years old in November, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were 35 years old or above at the time of signing. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

1 YEAR

Below is a list of comparables, to help project Kane’s contract. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Kane can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

Based on his age, another one-year deal may be most likely for Kane. He’s signed back-to-back one-year deals, and the expectation would be that regardless of whether he extends in Detroit, or heads elsewhere, it’s probably going to be a one-year contract, with comparables below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Kane Projection
Patrick Kane	37	2025	24-67 72GP	31-85 1302GP	28-76
Nick Foligno	36	2023	14-36 60GP	16-40 1081GP	15-38	$4.00M 1 year	$4.57M 1 year	1.20	$9.15M 1 year
Corey Perry	38	2023	12-25 81GP	27-58 1257GP	20-42	$4.00M 1 year	$4.57M 1 year	1.09	$8.27M 1 year
Paul Stastny	36	2021	19-42 56GP	22-62 1001GP	21-52	$3.75M 1 year	$4.39M 1 year	0.85	$6.42M 1 year
Joe Pavelski	38	2022	32-86 56GP	30-65 1168GP	31-76	$5.50M 1 year	$6.37M 1 year	0.84	$6.37M 1 year
Kyle Okposo	35	2023	12-31 78GP	19-49 984GP	16-40	$2.50M 1 year	$2.86M 1 year	0.71	$5.40M 1 year
Radim Vrbata	36	2017	20-56 81GP	23-49 1015GP	22-53	$2.50M 1 year	$3.18M 1 year	0.60	$4.56M 1 year
Tomas Vanek	34	2018	25-57 80GP	30-64 965GP	28-61	$3.00M 1 year	$3.60M 1 year	0.59	$4.49M 1 year
Patrick Kane	36	2024	33-77 50GP	31-86 1230GP	31-82	$4.00M 1 year	$4.34M 1 year	0.53	$4.02M 1 year
Patrick Kane	35	2023	24-64 73GP	31-86 118-GP	28-75	$2.75M 1 year	$3.15M 1 year	0.42	$3.19M 1 year
Jamie Benn	36	2025	16-50 80GP	27-66 1192GP	22-58	$1.00M 1 year	$1.00M 1 year	0.17	$1.31M 1 year

Based on the comps, they’d project Kane to be anywhere between $1.3M and $9.15M on a one-year deal.

While Kane’s production points to the fact that he should likely be in line for $4.5M or more (based on seven of the 10 comps projecting a cap hit of at least $4.5M), the two of the bottom projections on the table would still come from Kane’s own recent contracts. As a result, there’s an argument that Kane could end up taking less than a $4.5M cap hit.

Looking at the actual cap hits of the one-year deals signed as well, all contracts other than Joe Pavelski’s one-year deal came with an actual cap hit of $4M or less.

The 2023 Kane contract isn’t a great comp, given he was coming off a big injury, and signed part-way through the season. However, the 2024 contract came in at a more realistic $4M cap hit, and could be a more realistic projection. While Kane’s production slipped a bit from the 2023-24 season, factoring in the rising cap, the 2024 deal would still project Kane right around the same $4M cap hit on his new deal.

One thing to note about Kane’s 2024 contract though is that it also included up to $2.5M in performance bonuses (and Kane ended up securing $1.75M worth of those bonuses). Plus, Jamie Benn’s deal signed this week (which came in at a $1M cap hit), also included $3M worth of performance bonuses.

So there’s certainly a good chance we could see a structure that includes performance bonuses on his upcoming deal.

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2 YEARS

There’s also a chance that Kane could get more term on his next deal, with two years likely being he longest contract we could expect.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Kane Projection
Patrick Kane	37	2025	24-67 72GP	31-85 1302GP	28-76
**Nick Foligno	37	2024	17-36 39GP	16- 1120GP	17-40	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	1.22	$9.27M 2 years
Justin Williams	36	2017	25-49 80GP	21-52 1080GP	23-51	$4.50M 2 years	$5.73M 2 years	1.12	$8.51M 2 years
*Anze Kopitar	37	2024	28-74 82GP	25-72 991GP	27-73	$7.00M 2 years	$7.60M 2 years	1.04	$7.90M 2 years
Mikael Backlund	35	2024	19-56 82GP	17-44 908GP	18-50	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	0.98	$7.45M 2 years
*Sidney Crosby	38	2025	42-94 82GP	38-103 1272GP	40-99	$8.70M 2 years	$8.70M 2 years	0.88	$6.69M 2 years
David Perron	36	2024	18-51 76GP	22-56 1131GP	20-54	$4.00M 2 years	$4.34M 2 years	0.80	$6.08M 2 years
*Mats Zuccarello	37	2024	23-70 78GP	20-61 766GP	22-66	$4.13M 2 years	$4.48M 2 years	0.68	$5.17M 2 years
**Jeff Carter	37	2022	27-59 36GP	30-57 1130GP	29-58	$3.13M 2 years	$3.62M 2 years	0.62	$4.71M 2 years

Based on the comps, they’d project a two-year deal for Kane to come in between $4.7M and $9.3M per year.

At the same time, we saw on Kane’s two most recent deals that his deal came in quite a bit lower than projections would suggest. As a result, it may not be realistic to expect a higher cap hit on any possible two-year deal than he could be expected to make on a one-year deal. Plus with Kane now late in his career and already with huge career earnings exceeding $100 million, it’s likely that money wouldn’t be as important as the fit.

So while the lowest projections on the table would have Kane around $5M, it’s possible a two-year deal could come in lower than that, based on what we’ve seen from Kane’s past two contracts.

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Projection

The most likely scenario for Kane would be another one-year deal, with a two-year contract as the next most likely option.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
1 year	$4.00M	$5.50M	$3.50M
2 years	$4.00M	$5.00M	$3.50M

If Kane does sign a one-year deal, we could also see a contract that factors in performance bonuses. Given Kane had $2.5M worth of potential bonuses last year, and Jamie Benn just recently had $3M worth of bonuses factored into his deal (not to mention Jonathan Toews’ contract, which factored even more money in potential bonuses), it’s possible the bonuses for this contract could be in the same range as last year.

As a result, if bonuses are factored into a one-year deal, the projected contract for Kane would be the same as what he signed for last offseason, with a cap hit of $4M and up to around a $6.5M AAV, based on potential bonuses. Of course though, given the stage of Kane’s career and his career earnings to this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take less money on his contract, if he’s happy with the fit.

Projected Cap Hit	Projected AAV
$4.00M	$6.50M