Granlund could join his sixth NHL team this summer.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Selected ninth overall in 2010, Mikael Granlund emerged as a high-end forward with the Minnesota Wild over parts of seven seasons to begin his NHL career. With the Wild, Granlund switched between playing at center and on the wing, and over his last four seasons with the team, the forward produced at an 82-game rate of 69 points.

However, partway through the 2018-19 season, Granlund was sent to the Nashville Predators, in exchange for Kevin Fiala. Over his time in Nashville, Granlund’s production took a bit of a dip, and across 268 games with the team, Granlund managed a pace of 50 points.

From there, the forward was sent to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2023, where he value arguably reached an all-time low. He managed just one goal and five assists across 21 games in Pittsburgh, and was quickly moved to the San Jose Sharks in the following offseason, in a cap dump move as part of the Erik Karlsson trade.

While expectations were quite low for Granlund in San Jose, the forward managed to completely revitalize his career with the change of scenery. He led the team in points by a wide margin in 2023-24, and managed 105 points across 121 games in parts of two seasons with the Sharks. By the midway point of this past season, Granlund had rebuilt his value to the point where he was able to fetch a first-round pick in a trade with the Dallas Stars, as a part of a package which also had Cody Ceci heading to Dallas.

While Granlund is approaching his mid-30s, he’s also coming off two very productive seasons and could be a good add for a team looking to improve their top-six. At the same time, there may be some hesitation for teams in signing the forward, given his impact has seemed to really fluctuate over his career, and depending on which team he’s part of.

Still, Granlund can center a second-line with the ability for strong production, and he should be in line for a bit of a raise over his current $5M cap hit.

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What We Know

• Elliotte Friedman has reported he believes the Stars would like to extend Granlund. However, the team is operating with a lack of cap space, especially with Matt Duchene now signed.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs reportedly have interest in Granlund, per ESPN’s Kristen Shilton.

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Comparables

Below, we examine what Granlund’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page. With Granlund now 33 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who around the same age at the time of signing. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

2 YEARS

Below is a list of comparables, to help project Granlund’s contract. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Granlund can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

Two years would likely be the shortest contract we could expect for Granlund. We’ve seen a trend with players around his age and production signing two-year deals as of the last couple years, with comparables below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Granlund Projection
Mikael Granlund	33	2025	22-65 83GP	16-55 902GP	19-60
**Nick Foligno	34	2021	12-33 49GP	17-42 957GP	15-38	$3.80M 2 years	$4.45M 2 years	1.17	$7.02M 2 years
Mikko Koivu	35	2018	18-59 80GP	17-60 843GP	18-60	$5.50M 2 years	$6.61M 2 years	1.10	$6.60M 2 years
Tomas Tatar	31	2021	16-49 50GP	23-49 625GP	20-49	$4.50M 2 years	$5.27M 2 years	1.08	$6.48M 2 years
Kyle Palmieri	34	2025	24-48 82GP	25-48 900GP	25-48	$4.75M 2 years	$4.75M 2 years	0.99	$5.94M 2 years
*Mikael Backlund	35	2024	19-56 82GP	17-44 908GP	18-50	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	0.98	$5.88M 2 years
**Jordan Eberle	34	2024	19-51 59GP	24-57 999GP	22-54	$4.75M 2 years	$5.15M 2 years	0.95	$5.70M 2 years
David Perron	34	2022	33-70 67GP	23-56 973GP	28-63	$4.75M 2 years	$5.50M 2 years	0.87	$5.22M 2 years
**Jason Zucker	33	2025	27-67 54GP	23-45 751GP	25-56	$4.75M 2 years	$4.75M 2 years	0.85	$5.10M 2 years
Vladimir Tarasenko	33	2024	25-59 76GP	32-69 751GP	29-64	$4.75M 2 years	$5.15M 2 years	0.80	$4.80M 2 years
Gustav Nyquist	34	2023	18-43 51GP	20-50 703GP	19-47	$3.19M 2 years	$3.65M 2 years	0.78	$4.68M 2 years
***Viktor Arvidsson	31	2024	28-64 95GP	27-54 546GP	28-59	$4.00M 2 years	$4.34M 2 years	0.74	$4.44M 2 years
Adam Henrique	34	2024	24-51 82GP	24-48 912GP	24-50	$3.00M 2 years	$3.26M 2 years	0.65	$3.90M 2 years

Aside from one outlier at the top of the table in Nick Foligno, and one outlier at the bottom of the table in Adam Henrique, all 10 of the other comps would project Granlund’s value to be somewhere between $4.4M and $6.6M per year on a two-year deal.

While the Mikko Koivu and Tomas Tatar contracts would project Granlund above the $6M mark though, they were also two of the earlier signings on the table, with more recent comps projecting Granlund below that mark.

Specifically, there’s a group of six comps from Gustav Nyquist ($4.8M projection) and Kyle Palmieri ($5.94M projection), which would all be from the last three years, with quite a few of them having fairly similar production. That said, we’ve also seen a clear mark of what these players have signed for, regardless of difference in production, with all six of those comps signing for either $4.5M or $4.75M per year.

While that may be a definitive range though, there’s a couple reasons that Granlund could come in a bit higher. Most of the players there did extend with their current team, whereas Granlund is likely to hit free agency with multiple teams bidding on his services. Plus, even a $4.75M cap hit would leave Granlund below 8 of the 11 comps in the table, with seven of the comps projecting that Granlund would reach the $5M mark.

The three comps between Palmieri, Backlund, and Eberle would project $5.7M to $5.95M per year for Granlund, while the David Perron and Jason Zucker deals would project between $5.1M and $5.25M per year. So it’s a bit tough to tell exactly where Granlund’s value would fall within the range of $5M to $6M per year, but perhaps somewhere between the two sets of comps within this range, around $5.5M per year, give or take a bit, could be a realistic number for Granlund on a two-year deal.

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3 YEARS

It’s possible Granlund could also get more term on his deal. Other than one outlier comp in Taylor Hall, all other comps listed below for three-year deals would project Granlund to come in between $5.45M and $8.5M per year.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Granlund Projection
Mikael Granlund	33	2025	22-65 83GP	16-55 902GP	19-60
Brock Nelson	34	2025	27-57 82GP	25-48 900GP	27-53	$7.50M 3 years	$7.50M 3 years	1.42	$8.52M 3 years
Paul Stastny	34	2018	22-50 66GP	23-66 742GP	23-58	$6.50M 3 years	$7.81M 3 years	1.35	$8.10M 3 years
Tyler Bozak	32	2018	11-44 81GP	19-50 594GP	15-47	$5.00M 3 years	$6.01M 3 years	1.28	$7.68M 3 years
Joe Pavelski	35	2019	42-70 76GP	30-65 963GP	36-68	$7.00M 3 years	$8.20M 3 years	1.21	$7.26M 3 years
Claude Giroux	34	2022	23-71 75GP	24-74 1018GP	24-73	$6.50M 3 years	$7.52M 3 years	1.03	$6.18M 3 years
*Nino Niederreiter	32	2024	25-46 99GP	20-41 756GP	23-44	$4.00M 3 years	$4.34M 3 years	0.99	$5.94M 3 years
Mike Hoffman	32	2021	27-57 82GP	28-59 545GP	28-58	$4.50M 3 years	$5.27M 3 years	0.91	$5.46M 3 years
Taylor Hall	34	2025	19-45 77GP	26-67 751GP	23-56	$3.17M 3 years	$3.17M 3 years	0.57	$3.42M 3 years

It’s unlikely Granlund would reach the upper end of this range at $8M+, and even in terms of the actual cap hits signed of the players on the table, they’d all be $7.5M or less.

At the same time, based on the projections above, six of the eight would have Granlund above the $5.5M mark. So while he may not come in far above that range on a three-year deal, there’s an argument he could still make more than $5.5M per year on a three-year contract.

Two of the comps that would project Granlund slightly above that range would be the Nino Niederreiter contract ($5.94M projection) and the Claude Giroux deal ($6.18M per year). So it’s possible Granlund could reach around the $6M mark, on the same cost-per-points basis.

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4 YEARS

Four years would likely be the longest deal we’d see for Granlund, with comps below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Granlund Projection
Mikael Granlund	33	2025	22-65 83GP	16-55 902GP	19-60
Alex Killorn	34	2023	27-64 53GP	20-47 991GP	24-56	$6.25M 4 years	$7.15M 4 years	1.28	$7.68M 4 years
Tyler Toffoli	32	2024	34-57 79GP	26-53 812GP	30-55	$6.00M 4 years	$6.51M 4 years	1.18	$7.08M 4 years
Steven Stamkos	34	2024	42-84 79GP	42-86 1082GP	42-85	$8.00M 4 years	$8.68M 4 years	1.02	$6.12M 4 years
Ryan O’Reilly	32	2023	25-46 53GP	21-58 991GP	23-52	$4.50M 4 years	$5.15M 4 years	0.99	$5.94M 4 years
Jordan Staal	35	2023	17-34 82GP	19-45 1173GP	18-40	$2.90M 4 years	$3.32M 4 years	0.83	$4.98M 4 years
Matt Duchene	34	2025	30-82 82GP	27-64 1138GP	29-72	$4.50M 4 years	$4.50M 4 years	0.63	$3.75M 4 years

While there’d be one outlier at the bottom of the table in Matt Duchene who took less money to remain with the Dallas Stars, the other five comps would project Granlund between $5M and $7.7M per year.

Again, it’s unlikely Granlund would be at the upper end of the range, but could come in close to the $6M range that was projected for a three-year contract. The Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos contracts would both project Granlund right around $6M per year, and the same mark would represent the deal that Tyler Toffoli signed with the San Jose Sharks last offseason. As a result, there’s an argument that Granlund’s maximum deal could be a four-year contract, around $6M per year.

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Projection

A deal between two and four years is expected for Granlund, with projections below.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
2 years	$5.50M	$6.00M	$4.75M
3 years	$6.00M	$7.00M	$5.50M
4 years	$6.00M	$7.00M	$5.00M