Following his second Stanley Cup, will Marchand remain in Florida?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Selected by the Boston Bruins in the third round of the 2006 NHL Draft, Brad Marchand spent parts of 16 seasons with the team. Over that time, he won a Stanley Cup in 2011, finished top-five in Hart Trophy voting twice, and took over as the Bruins’ captain in 2023.

But with Marchand on an expiring contract this season and not able to get an extension done in Boston, the forward was dealt to the Florida Panthers at the trade deadline. While he only got into 10 regular season games with the Panthers after the trade, Marchand proved to be a great fit with the team in the postseason. The winger scored 10 goals and 20 points across 23 games, on route to his second Stanley Cup.

With Marchand set to become a free agent on July 1, his playoff performance has undoubtedly increased his value. An extension in Florida makes sense for both sides, but it remains to be seen whether a deal can get done, with the Panthers potentially unable to fit all of their pending free agents under the salary cap.

Despite now being 37 years old, Marchand has shown he can still be a highly effective winger. He fits the Panthers’ tough-to-play-against style perfectly, and has shown he can still produce at a high rate. If he does hit free agency, he’ll be one of the more sought-after wingers available.

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What We Know

• Elliotte Friedman had previously believed that a three-year deal at an $8M cap hit would be likely for Marchand, but has since noted that the deal could be a bigger salary or longer term.
• Chris Johnston reported with The Athletic that Marchand’s deal will be likely to come in around $8M per year on a four-year deal.
• Marchand expressed a desire to remain in Florida, following the Stanley Cup win.
• Per The Fourth Period, Marchand would need to take less to remain in Florida than he would make in free agency, and would be looking at a three or four-year deal around $5 to $6M per year to stay with the team.
• In a video posted to Twitter/X, Marchand seemingly told fans ‘I’m not f***** leaving’, and when asked if he would stay for one more year, Marchand held up four fingers.

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Comparables

Below, we examine what Marchand’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page. With Marchand now 37 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were 35 years old or above at the time of signing. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

2 YEARS

Below is a list of comparables, to help project Marchand’s contract. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Marchand can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

Despite the reports that Marchand is expected to get a three-year deal or more, there are significantly more comps who signed two-year deals, as opposed to longer contracts.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Marchand Projection
Brad Marchand	37	2025	27-59 71GP	32-73 1100GP	30-66
**Nick Foligno	37	2024	17-36 39GP	16- 1120GP	17-40	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	1.22	$8.05M 2 years
Justin Williams	36	2017	25-49 80GP	21-52 1080GP	23-51	$4.50M 2 years	$5.73M 2 years	1.12	$7.39M 2 years
*Anze Kopitar	37	2024	28-74 82GP	25-72 991GP	27-73	$7.00M 2 years	$7.60M 2 years	1.04	$6.87M 2 years
Mikael Backlund	35	2024	19-56 82GP	17-44 908GP	18-50	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	0.98	$6.52M 2 years
*Sidney Crosby	38	2025	42-94 82GP	38-103 1272GP	40-99	$8.70M 2 years	$8.70M 2 years	0.88	$5.80M 2 years
David Perron	36	2024	18-51 76GP	22-56 1131GP	20-54	$4.00M 2 years	$4.34M 2 years	0.80	$5.31M 2 years
*Mats Zuccarello	37	2024	23-70 78GP	20-61 766GP	22-66	$4.13M 2 years	$4.48M 2 years	0.68	$4.49M 2 years
**Jeff Carter	37	2022	27-59 36GP	30-57 1130GP	29-58	$3.13M 2 years	$3.62M 2 years	0.62	$4.09M 2 years

Based on the comps, they’d project Marchand to be anywhere from $4.1M to $8.05M on a two-year deal. Of course, based on the reports of what we can expect Marchand to sign for on a longer deal, his value certainly wouldn’t be lower on a potential two-year deal, likely right at the upper end of this range.

Again though, a two-year deal does look to be very unlikely at this point, despite the comparables.

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3 YEARS

Once you start looking for comparables at three years or longer, they become much more difficult to find for players 35 years old and above. Two notable comps who signed three-year deals in their mid-to-late 30s would be Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Marchand Projection
Brad Marchand	37	2025	27-59 71GP	32-73 1100GP	30-66
Patrick Marleau	38	2017	27-46 82GP	28-59 1493GP	28-53	$6.25M 3 years	$7.96M 3 years	1.50	$9.90M 3 years
Joe Pavelski	35	2019	42-70 76GP	30-65 963GP	36-68	$7.00M 3 years	$8.20M 3 years	1.21	$7.99M 3 years

Marleau’s deal was signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2017, and would project nearly $10M per year for Marchand’s contract. Obviously, that does seem to be higher than expected, but Joe Pavelski may serve as a better comp.

Pavelski had more comparable production, and ultimately signed for a $7M cap hit in 2019 (which translates to $8.2M per year under a $95.5M salary cap). Pavelski’s deal would project a three-year contract for Marchand to come in almost exactly at the $8M per year that was reported, on the same cost-per-points basis.

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4 YEARS

Similar to three-year deals, it’s uncommon for wingers at Marchand’s age to sign for four years or more. Two more recent comps would be Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin, with Alex Ovechkins’ five-year deal also listed below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Marchand Projection
Brad Marchand	37	2025	27-59 71GP	32-73 1100GP	30-66
Alex Ovechkin	36	2021	44-77 45GP	50-90 1197GP	47-84	$9.50M 5 years	$11.13M 5 years	1.33	$8.75M 5 years
Jordan Staal	35	2023	17-34 82GP	19-45 1173GP	18-40	$2.90M 4 years	$3.32M 4 years	0.83	$5.47M 4 years
Evgeni Malkin	36	2022	40-84 41GP	37-96 981GP	39-90	$6.10M 4 years	$7.06M 4 years	0.78	$5.15M 4 years

Both the Staal contract and Malkin contracts would project Marchand to come in between $5M and $5.5M on a four-year deal. While the Ovechkin contract would be a major outlier, projecting Marchand at $8.75M, it’s also closer to the $8M per year that was reportedly expected for a four-year deal.

However, it’s important to factor in David Pagnotta’s report that Marchand would likely need to take less than what he could make in free agency in order to re-sign with the Panthers (with Pagnotta noting a range of $5M to $6M per year). In this scenario, if the Panthers offered Marchand a deal at the upper end of this range at $6M, he could still reach $24M total over four years, which would represent the same total money as the previously reported three-year deal ($8M per year).

As a result, we can probably expect that there are two different possibilities for Marchand on a four-year deal. If he does hit the market, it’s possible he could get closer to the number that the Ovechkin deal would project (especially as reports would suggest), hitting or even exceeding the $8M mark.

If he took less to stay in Florida, we could see Marchand still get the $24M that was previously reported for a three-year deal, but over a longer term, around $6M per year over a four-year deal.

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Projection

If Marchand hits free agency, reports would indicate he’ll be in line for a three or four-year deal. While there are significantly more comparables of players his age signing a two-year contract, the 2019 Joe Pavelski would project a cap hit right at $8M for Marchand, based on the same cost-per-points basis when applied to a $95.5M salary cap.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
3 years	$8.00M	$9.00M	$7.00M
4 years	$8.00M	$8.75M	$5.00M

If Marchand does sign to remain in Florida though, it’s likely to come in at a lower cap hit, as noted by David Pagnotta. Though Pagnotta noted either a three or four-year deal could be possible with the Panthers, it seems that it’s a good bet of being a four-year deal, with the Panthers being able to spread out the total money over a longer term, in order to reduce the cap hit.

Pagnotta also noted the range could be between $5M and $6M per year with Florida. While the Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin contracts would project Marchand between $5.15M and $5.5M on a four-year deal, it’s probably more likely to fall in the upper end of the range, given what Marchand could likely make in free agency.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
4 years (FLA)	$6.00M	$8.75M	$5.00M