After 11 seasons in Florida, Ekblad could find a new home this summer.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Selected first overall in 2014, Aaron Ekblad has been a key part of the Panthers’ blue line for a decade. He holds the franchise record for most career points by a defenseman, and is second in franchise history in games played (trailing Aleksander Barkov by 72 games).

After winning the Calder Trophy in his rookie season, Ekblad emerged as a long-term, top-pairing defender for the team. He’s been a consistent producer of offense, can be tough to play against in his own end, and played a big role in helping the Panthers capture their back-to-back Stanley Cups.

However, Ekblad has also dealt with a lot of injury trouble lately. Over the last four yeas in particular, Ekblad has only played in 218 of Florida’s 328 regular season games (73 percent). With the injury history and Ekblad approaching 30 years old, it could be a cause for concern in regards to any team looking to sign the defender this offseason.

But when available, Ekblad can be a solid, top-pairing defender who can do a bit of everything. He’s one of the top free agent defensemen available this summer, and would likely to see a lot of interest.

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What We Know

• Pierre LeBrun previously reported that Ekblad would need to take less than his market value in order to stay in Florida.
• All signs indicate that Ekblad wants to remain with the Panthers.
• David Pagnotta reported the Panthers want Ekblad to take less than he is making now ($7.5M cap hit) and would be looking to get Ekblad signed somewhere ‘in the Sixes’.

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Comparables

Below, we predict what Ekblad’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page. With Ekblad now 29 years old, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 27 and 31 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the tables represent their age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract, and each player’s cap hit has been adjusted to a $95.5M cap hit, shown in the far right of the table.

8 YEARS

Ekblad would only be eligible for an eight-year contract if he extends in Florida, with comps below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $95.5M Cap
Aaron Ekblad	29	2024	48 56GP	43 732GP	23:31	22:53
Erik Karlsson	29	2019	70 53GP	68 680GP	24:49	25:51	$11.50M 8 years	$13.48M 8 years
*Seth Jones	28	2022	41 56GP	40 580GP	25:15	23:03	$9.50M 8 years	$11.00M 8 years
*Darnell Nurse	27	2022	53 56GP	32 406GP	25:38	22:18	$9.25M 8 years	$10.71M 8 years
*Victor Hedman	27	2017	49 23GP	40 470GP	23:04	22:11	$7.88M 8 years	$10.03M 8 years
*Oliver Ekman-Larsson	28	2019	42 82GP	41 576GP	23:41	23:39	$8.25M 8 years	$9.67M 8 years
John Carlson	28	2018	68 82GP	45 608GP	24:47	23:00	$8.00M 8 years	$9.61M 8 years
**Jakob Chychrun	27	2025	54 65GP	40 533GP	20:56	21:16	$9.00M 8 years	$9.00M 8 years
**Morgan Rielly	28	2022	51 63GP	44 580GP	23:43	21:53	$7.50M 8 years	$8.68M 8 years
*Marc-Edouard Vlasic	31	2018	31 75GP	26 812GP	21:14	22:01	$7.00M 8 years	$8.41M 8 years
**Noah Hanifin	27	2024	47 77GP	34 675GP	23:37	20:29	$7.35M 8 years	$7.98M 8 years
Filip Hronek	27	2024	49 81GP	43 390GP	23:26	22:32	$7.25M 8 years	$7.87M 8 years
*Cam Fowler	27	2018	40 80GP	36 494GP	24:51	22:48	$6.50M 8 years	$7.81M 8 years
*Colton Parayko	29	2022	31 32GP	34 418GP	21:20	21:43	$6.50M 8 years	$7.52M 8 years
**Hampus Lindholm	28	2022	30 61GP	31 589GP	22:32	22:11	$6.50M 8 years	$7.52M 8 years
*Ryan Ellis	28	2019	60 44GP	36 396GP	23:31	19:36	$6.25M 8 years	$7.32M 8 years
*MacKenzie Weeger	29	2023	45 80GP	32 306GP	23:22	19:33	$6.25M 8 years	$7.15M 8 years
*Travis Sanheim	27	2023	32 80GP	28 335GP	22:58	20:18	$6.25M 8 years	$7.15M 8 years
Damon Severson	29	2023	33 81GP	33 647GP	19:57	21:11	$6.25M 8 years	$7.15M 8 years
*Ryan Pulock	28	2022	25 56GP	35 290GP	22:27	21:03	$6.15M 8 years	$7.12M 8 years
Adam Pelech	27	2021	21 56GP	20 303GP	21:03	19:16	$5.75M 8 years	$6.74M 8 years
**Gustav Forsling	28	2024	42 63GP	33 397GP	21:48	20:27	$5.75M 8 years	$6.24M 8 years

Based on the comps, Ekblad would have better numbers in every category than the defenders at the bottom of the table, from MacKenzie Weegar and below. So we can be confident he’d be above $7.15M in value (Weegar’s adjusted cap hit). Then even comparing Ekblad to most of the comps just above that (below an $8M adjusted cap hit), he also had higher numbers than Hampus Lindholm and Colton Parayko, and better production than Cam Fowler, along with very similar career ice time (but did have lower signing year ice time). Then even against Noah Hanifin, Ekblad had very similar signing year stats, but higher career numbers.

Filip Hronek ($7.9M adjusted cap hit) would be a great comp as well, with the defenders having extremely similar numbers in all categories.

That said, looking at the comps at the top of the table, Ekblad compares decently against the likes of Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Victor Hedman, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who all had contracts at an adjusted cap hit of $9.65M or above.

Of course, it’s unlikely that Ekblad ends up reaching that mark, but it does point to the fact that his value could be quite high on a maximum-term deal. While he’s lower than John Carlson in every category, he does also compare better against Jakob Chychrun, who just signed a deal at a $9M cap hit.

Ekblad was also higher than Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($8.4M adjusted cap hit) in every category, and one of the better statistical comparisons would be Morgan Rielly ($8.7M adjusted cap hit). Ekblad had similar production to Rielly and very similar signing year ice time, along with higher career ice time. So there’s certainly an argument that Ekblad’s value on an eight-year deal could be $8M or more, and potentially as high as $8.5M per year.

However, it’s also important to factor in that if Ekblad signs an eight-year deal, it likely means taking a discount to stay in Florida. As noted above, the Panthers are only really in a position to keep Ekblad if he takes a deal below market value. So we can expect that if Ekblad did sign an eight-year deal, it’s coming in below the $8M mark.

Perhaps a more realistic range would be the actual cap hits that Hronek, Hanifin and Rielly signed for, between $7.25M and $7.5M. The $7.5M mark would represent the same cap hit as the defender’s current deal, and while his value is likely higher based on the comps above, we likely wouldn’t see any kind of a raise if he did extend in Florida.

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7 YEARS

If Ekblad does hit free agency, we can expect that a seven-year deal would be most likely, with comparables below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $95.5M Cap
Aaron Ekblad	29	2025	48 56GP	43 732GP	23:31	22:53
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 55GP	46 607GP	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$10.55M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 70GP	49 758GP	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$10.31M 7 years
*Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 82GP	35 591GP	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$8.88M 7 years
*Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 63GP	37 530GP	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$7.91M 7 years
**Devon Toews	30	2024	52 81GP	48 315GP	25:06	23:01	$7.25M 7 years	$7.87M 7 years
Brandon Montour	30	2024	41 66GP	40 520GP	23:27	21:04	$7.14M 7 years	$7.75M 7 years
*Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 82GP	38 559GP	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$7.62M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 61GP	66 61GP	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$7.62M 7 years
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38	$7.00M 7 years	$7.60M 7 years
**Shea Theodore	30	2025	76 53GP	51 503GP	22:05	21:24	$7.43M 7 years	$7.43M 7 years
*Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 69GP	22 555GP	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$7.03M 7 years

While Ekblad wouldn’t compare well against the top defenders on the table in Dougie Hamilton and Alex Pietrangelo, he’d also be well above Jonas Brodin at the bottom of the table in every category. So we can expect his expected range would fall somewhere between Shea Theodore’s $7.43M cap hit, and Jared Spurgeon’s $8.88M adjusted cap hit.

On the lower end of the table, Ekblad had lower production than Torey Krug and Shea Theodore, but higher ice time. Then with Brady Skjei, Ekblad was higher in every category, aside from the same signing year production pace.

Some of the better comps on the table would be Jared Spurgeon, Ryan McDonagh, Brandon Montour, and Justin Faulk. Spurgeon did have higher signing year ice time, but Ekblad would have higher numbers in every other category (though Spurgeon’s adjusted cap hit does represent an outlier, compared to the other three defenders).

Comparing Ekblad to Faulk ($7.6M adjusted cap hit), he had higher numbers in all categories aside from slightly lower career ice time. Compared to his former teammate in Brandon Montour ($7.75M adjusted cap hit), Ekblad had slightly higher production, and nearly identical signing year ice time, along with higher career ice time. Then against Ryan McDonagh ($7.9M adjusted cap hit), Ekblad had slightly higher numbers in all categories, aside from slightly lower career ice time.

As a result, we can likely expect Ekblad’s value to be slightly above the likes of Faulk, Montour and McDonagh, who had adjusted cap hits in the range of $7.6M to $7.9M. While it’s unlikely that Ekblad could get as high as Spurgeon’s $8.9M adjusted cap hit, there’s a strong chance he’d be able to hit $8M per year.

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6 YEARS

A six-year deal is unlikely for Ekblad, and would probably only be seen if he couldn’t get a maximum-term contract in free agency. While his injury history could be a cause for concern for teams when it comes to giving a contract with a seven-year term, Ekblad’s stats align much more closely to defenders who signed for seven or eight years, compared to those who signed six-year deals, seen below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $95.5M Cap
Aaron Ekblad	29	2025	48 56GP	43 732GP	23:31	22:53
**Neal Pionk	30	2025	46 69GP	39 536GP	22:04	21:47	$7.00M 6 years	$7.00M 6 years
*Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 84GP	24 284GP	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.97M 6 years
Matt Roy	29	2024	21 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28	$5.75M 6 years	$6.24M 6 years
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05	$5.50M 6 years	$5.97M 6 years
**Marcus Pettersson	29	2025	30 49GP	25 493GP	22:09	18:50	$5.50M 6 years	$5.50M 6 years
Nikita Zadorov	29	2024	22 75GP	19 642GP	17:26	18:05	$5.00M 6 years	$5.43M 6 years
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 78GP	27 302GP	19:57	18:59	$4.50M 6 years	$5.15M 6 years

Based on the comps, Ekblad had higher numbers in every single category than every defender listed. Neal Pionk is the highest comp at just a $7M cap hit, but again, Ekblad’s numbers would set him up for an even higher cap hit.

As a result, in the unlikely scenario where he signed for six years, we can expect his cap hit would be similar to the projections seen for seven and eight-year deals above.

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Projection

Even despite his injury history, Ekblad is likely to get quite a bit of interest in free agency. He’s served as a top-pairing defender in Florida’s back-to-back Stanley Cup wins, and Ekblad could be one of the top free agent defenders available.

While comps would point to Ekblad’s value being around $8M per year or above on an eight-year deal, he almost certainly wouldn’t get this much if he extends with the Panthers. If he did extend with the team, he may not only need to take a pay cut from what he could make in free agency, but reports would suggest he’d even need to take a pay cut from his current $7.5M cap hit.

If Ekblad hits free agency, a seven-year deal would be the most likely scenario, based on the comps outlined above. If the defender signs elsewhere, we could see him hit the $8M mark, or a bit above.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
8 years	$7.25M	$8.50M	$7.00M
7 years	$8.00M	$8.75M	$7.50M

As the same time, teams may be cautious of giving Ekblad a maximum-term deal, based on his injury history. If he couldn’t get a seven-year deal in free agency, a six-year contract would be the next most likely scenario, likely around the same cap hit as what’s been projected for a seven-year deal.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
6 years	$8.00M	$8.50M	$7.00M