Donato extended in Chicago after a breakout year.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

Ryan Donato signed a four-year contract extension with the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday, which carries a $4M cap hit.

Below, we take a look at whether the Blackhawks are getting fair value with the deal.

Player Overview

Ryan Donato has bounced around the NHL quite a bit, since entering the league in 2018. After beginning his professional career with the Boston Bruins, Donato spent time with the Minnesota Wild, San Jose Sharks, and Seattle Kraken from there, before signing a two-year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2023.

For four seasons from 2021 to 2024, Donato’s production was very consistent from year to year, scoring at an 82-game rate of between 30-35 points in each of those seasons. However, Donato’s second year with the Blackhawks marked a breakout season for the forward, where he posted 31 goals and 62 points in 80 games, and led the team in goals by a wide margin.

Donato is able to play either at center or on the wing, and has both good puck control and offensive instincts. However, part of his production increase can likely be attributed to his shooting percentage being significantly higher this past season at 17 percent, compared to his career average of 11 percent. With a four-year extension in Chicago, the question will be whether Donato can get close to replicating his 2024-25 production.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Donato’s deal compares to recent contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page. With Donato now 29 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were near his age in the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

Based on his age and production, a four-year contract makes sense for Donato. Any deal with more term would’ve been a bit of a risk based on the small sample size of high-end production, but it does give the Blackhawks an opportunity to get really good value from the deal as the salary cap rises, if Donato can even get close to repeating his production.

The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Donato could’ve been expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

In terms of the cap hit, all signs point to Donato’s $4M per year coming in lower than expected. Based on the 11 comps listed, 10 of them would’ve projected a four-year deal for Donato to come in somewhere between about $4.25M and $6.35M per year.

That said, we do see that the players higher on the table generally had higher production across their career, and the four comps which projected a deal for $5.9M or above actually had higher career production, and lower signing year production, whereas Donato was the opposite.

However, some of the deals lower down the table (projecting $5.3M per year or less) like Alex Iafallo, Evander Kane and Mason Marchment were also players who had a bit of an outlier signing year in terms of production. This points to the fact that there’s likely a bit of caution being taking with these deals resulting in a lower cap hit, given the smaller sample size of higher production, and the risk that the player may not be able to replicate those numbers. As a result, the seven deals from Alex Iafallo ($5.3M projection) down to Max Domi ($4.23M projection) was the more likely range for Donato’s value.

That said, every single one of the 11 comps listed would’ve projected a four-year deal for Donato to come in above a $4M cap hit. So regardless of where Donato’s value maybe should’ve fallen between the $4.2M to $5.3M range, the Blackhawks look to be getting very good value with the contract.

Final Analysis

A four-year deal makes sense for Donato, with many players who were around the same age and production signing for the same term.

With the cap hit though, Donato’s $4M per year looks like a bit of a bargain. Comps would’ve projected the forward to come in higher, likely closer to $4.5M, or even $5M per year on a four-year contract.

As a result, even if Donato’s production slides a little bit next season, he’ll provide really good value if he can even get close to replicating his 2024-25 numbers.