Projecting Brock Boeser’s next contract

Written in

by

Boeser could find a new home this summer, after nine seasons with the Vancouver Canucks.


Player Overview

Selected 23rd overall in the 2015 NHL Draft, Brock Boeser has spent his entire professional career with the Vancouver Canucks. The winger made the full-time jump to the NHL for the 2017-18 season, where he had a great rookie year, posting 29 goals and 55 points across 62 games, and finished second in Calder Trophy voting.

Across parts of nine seasons in Vancouver, Boeser has scored 204 goals and 434 points over 554 games. He’s also a year removed from a 2023-24 campaign which saw him post 40 goals and 73 points in 81 games.

However, while Boeser can score goals at a high rate with a great shot and good finishing ability, his production has often been streaky and inconsistent from year to year. This has resulted in Boeser frequently being involved in trade speculation over the last number of seasons.

Still, at his best, Boeser can be a highly effective, top-six forward. Now set to become an unrestricted free agent, he’ll be one of the top wingers on the market, if hits July 1.

Advertisements

What We Know

  • Per Frank Seravalli, the Canucks offered Boeser a five-year deal at an $8M cap hit, but Boeser was looking for more term.
  • Boeser noted that it’s unlikely that he’ll to return to the Canucks.
  • Rick Dhaliwal reported that teams will be willing to give Boeser $8M+ in free agency, but it remains to be seen what term teams will be willing to give out. Dhaliwal also noted that if Boeser can’t get a deal he likes elsewhere, a return to Vancouver remains possible.

Comparables

Below, we examine what Boeser’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page. With Boeser now 28 years old, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7/8 YEARS

The most likely scenario for Boeser’s deal would be a seven-year contract. While an eight-year deal would be possible if he re-signs in Vancouver, it seems the more likely scenario would be Boeser heading to free agency. In this event, he’d be more in line with comparables for a maximum-term contract, than any other length.

Advertisements

Below is a list of 34 comparables for seven and eight-year contracts, to help project Boeser’s contract. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Boeser can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$95.5M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Boeser
Projection
Brock Boeser28202527-55
81GP
30-64
657GP
29-60
Jeff Skinner27201940-63
82GP
30-55
661GP
35-59$9.00M
8 years
$10.55M
8 years
1.79$10.73M
8 years
*Patrick Kane27201534-82
69GP
28-78
515GP
31-80$10.50M
8 years
$14.04M
8 years
1.76$10.53M
8 years
Anders Lee29201928-51
82GP
29-50
425GP
29-51$7.00M
7 years
$8.20M
7 years
1.61$9.65M
7 years
Timo Meier27202342-69
78GP
28-57
472GP
35-63$8.80M
8 years
$10.06M
8 years
1.60$9.58M
8 years
Artemi Panarin28201929-90
79GP
30-81
322GP
30-86$11.64M
years
$13.64M
7 years
1.59$9.52M
7 years
*Jakub Voracek27201622-81
82GP
19-57
531GP
21-69$8.25M
8 years
$10.79M
8 years
1.56$9.38M
8 years
Evander Kane27201830-57
78GP
27-51
574GP
29-54$7.00M
7 years
$8.41M
7 years
1.56$9.34M
7 years
*Tom Wilson30202432-55
33GP
15-36
680GP
24-46$6.50M
7 years
$7.05M
7 years
1.53$9.20M
7 years
*Jamie Benn28201741-89
82GP
31-72
508GP
36-81$9.50M
8 years
$12.10M
8 years
1.49$8.96M
8 years
Milan Lucic28201620-56
81GP
20-50
647GP
20-53$6.00M
7 years
$7.85M
7 years
1.48$8.89M
7 years
Mark Stone27201926-82
64GP
28-70
366GP
27-76$9.50M
8 years
$11.13M
8 years
1.46$8.79M
8 years
**Roope Hintz27202336-77
103GP
28-61
261GP
31-69$8.45M
8 years
$9.66M
8 years
1.40$8.40M
8 years
Valeri Nichushkin27202230-69
62GP
14-35
405GP
22-52$6.13M
8 years
$7.10M
8 years
1.37$8.19M
8 years
*Chris Kreider29202033-62
60GP
25-50
520GP
29-56$6.50M
7 years
$7.62M
7 years
1.36$8.16M
7 years
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44$5.50M
7 years
$5.97M
7 years
1.36$8.14M
8 years
*Brad Marchand29201739-65
77GP
28-52
454GP
34-59$6.25M
8 years
$7.96M
8 years
1.35$8.09M
8 years
***Cam Atkinson29201836-57
97GP
26-48
397GP
31-53$5.88M
7 years
$7.06M
7 years
1.33$8.00M
7 years
*Travis Konecny28202536-73
76GP
25-58
564GP
31-66$8.75M
8 years
$8.75M
8 years
1.33$7.95M
8 years
Matt Duchene28201935-79
73GP
26-62
727GP
31-71$8.00M
7 years
$9.37M
7 years
1.32$7.92M
7 years
***Mikko Rantanen29202536-93
62GP
37-89
632GP
37-91$12.00M
8 years
$12.00M
8 years
1.32$7.91M
8 years
***David Pastrnak27202358-112
63GP
41-84
571GP
50-98$11.25M
8 years
$12.86M
8 years
1.31$7.88M
8 years
Kevin Fiala26202233-85
82GP
24-55
419GP
29-70$7.88M
7 years
$9.12M
7 years
1.30$7.82M
7 years
***William Nylander28202447-120
37GP
29-71
558GP
38-96$11.50M
8 years
$12.48M
8 years
1.30$7.80M
8 years
Troy Terry26202327-71
70GP
22-53
274GP
25-62$7.00M
7 years
$8.01M
7 years
1.29$7.75M
7 years
Kyle Okposo28201623-66
79GP
22-57
529GP
23-62$6.00M
7 years
$7.85M
7 years
1.27$7.60M
7 years
*Jonathan Huberdeau30202331-118
80GP
24-75
671GP
28-97$10.50M
8 years
$12.00M
8 years
1.24$7.42M
8 years
Zach Hyman29202129-63
43GP
20-44
345GP
25-54$5.50M
7 years
$6.44M
7 years
1.19$7.16M
7 years
Sam Reinhart29202457-94
82GP
30-63
696GP
49-79$8.63M
8 years
$9.37M
8 years
1.19$7.12M
8 years
Gabriel Landeskog29202130-79
54GP
26-61
687GP
28-70$7.00M
8 years
$8.20M
8 years
1.17$7.03M
8 years
Filip Forsberg28202250-100
69GP
32-68
566GP
41-84$8.50M
8 years
$9.84M
8 years
1.17$7.03M
8 years
*J.T. Miller30202333-101
80GP
22-58
637GP
28-80$8.00M
7 years
$9.15M
7 years
1.14$6.86M
7 years
Johnny Gaudreau29202240-115
82GP
29-83
602GP
35-99$9.75M
7 years
$11.29M
7 years
1.14$6.84M
7 years
Jake Guentzel30202437-94
67GP
36-77
520GP
37-86$9.00M
7 years
$9.77M
7 years
1.14$6.82M
8 years
*Carter Verhaeghe30202536-78
76GP
32-62
330GP
34-70$7.00M
7 years
$7.00M
7 years
1.00$6.00M
7 years
*Deal signed one year out – stats from season prior to signing used for signing year stats
**Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
***Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

Of the 34 comps, 31 of them would project a maximum-term contract for Boeser to come in between $6.8M and $9.7M per year, so we have a clear range of where Boeser’s value would lie.

That said, Boeser isn’t likely to fall at the bottom of this range, from many of the deals projecting a deal of $7.15M per year or less. Of this group, many of the deals were signed by players who were either a couple years older (representing a greater risk of decline), those who took a pay cut to extend with their current team, or those who signed in Florida, where a lack of state income tax allowed players to take home more money even at a lower cap hit than they would’ve gotten elsewhere.

At the same time, 10 of the highest 11 comps (down to Mark Stone) were signed prior to 2020, whereas the bulk of contracts lower down the table were more recent contracts. As a result, the more realistic range likely falls between $7.1M and $8.4M per year.

Advertisements

While a lot of the players in the table had higher production than Boeser, there is a group of good comps, who had more similar numbers, in Chris Kreider, Brad Marchand, Travis Konecny, Troy Terry, and Kyle Okposo. These five comps would project Boeser to be somewhere between $7.6M and $8.2M per year.

Plus, there’s a good group of high-profile recent comps in Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak, and William Nylander, who would all project Boeser to be between $7.8M and $7.9M per year.

As a result, there’s a likely range in the middle of the table that represents Boeser’s expected value. There’s a chance Boeser could reach $8M per year on a seven-year deal, and if he doesn’t hit that mark, we can expect he’d be very close to it.

Advertisements

6 YEARS

If Boeser wasn’t able to get a maximum-term contract, the next-most likely deal would be a six-year deal. That said, there’s been a shift away from players of Boeser’s age and production getting this kind of deal. Those who did either had lower production, or were coming off a year where they greatly outproduced their career pace (resulting in less certainty that the player could repeat the same level of production).

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$95.5M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Boeser
Projection
Brock Boeser28202527-55
81GP
30-64
657GP
29-60
*Brendan Gallagher29202133-54
35GP
26-50
582GP
30-52$6.50M
6 years
$7.62M
6 years
1.46$8.79M
6 years
Blake Coleman30202121-46
55GP
19-34
301GP
20-40$4.90M
6 years
$5.74M
6 years
1.44$8.61M
6 years
*Nick Foligno28201541-77
34GP
17-39
500GP
29-58$5.50M
6 years
$7.36M
6 years
1.27$7.61M
6 years
Rickard Rakell29202223-48
70GP
23-51
569GP
23-50$5.00M
6 years
$5.79M
6 years
1.16$6.95M
6 years
*Josh Bailey29201821-88
58GP
14-43
697GP
18-66$5.00M
6 years
$6.01M
6 years
0.91$5.46M
6 years
Bryan Rust 30202233-79
60GP
24-52
424GP
29-66$5.13M
6 years
$5.94M
6 years
0.90$5.40M
6 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

Based on the comps, they’d project Boeser between $5.4M and $8.8M on a six-year contract.

Towards the lower end though, the Josh Bailey and Bryan Rust contracts aren’t necessarily as applicable, given both fall into the category of players who were coming off an outlier signing year at the time. At the same time, Nick Foligno would likely into this category as well, while Blake Coleman had significantly lower production over his career.

Advertisements

The two best comps on the table are likely Brendan Gallagher ($8.8M projection) and Rickard Rakell ($6.95M projection). Of course, there’s a huge gap between these two deals, so it’s a little bit difficult to project an accurate value. That said, the middle ground of the deals would take Boeser to right around the same cap hit as on a seven-year deal, likely somewhere around the $8M mark.


5 YEARS

A five-year deal would be the lowest term expected for Boeser’s next deal, and remains fairly unlikely. His production would put him in line for more term, and the majority of the comps below had significantly lower production. Especially consdiering the report that Boeser was unwilling to sign a five-year deal at an $8M cap hit with the Canucks, and it seems very unlikely that he ends up taking a deal at this term in free agency.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$95.5M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Boeser
Projection
Brock Boeser28202527-55
81GP
30-64
657GP
29-60
**Jakob Silfverberg29201923-35
56GP
19-40
475GP
21-38$5.25M
5 years
$6.15M
5 years
1.62$9.71M
5 years
James van Riemsdyk29201836-55
81GP
27-53
609GP
32-54$7.00M
5 years
$8.41M
5 years
1.56$9.34M
5 years
Matt Beleskey27201528-40
65GP
14-28
329GP
21-34$3.80M
5 years
$5.08M
5 years
1.49$8.97M
5 years
Michael Frolik27201519-42
82GP
15-38
512GP
17-40$4.30M
5 years
$5.75M
5 years
1.44$8.63M
5 years
Artturi Lehkonen27202221-42
74GP
16-31
412GP
19-37$4.50M
5 years
$5.21M
5 years
1.41$8.45M
5 years
Ivan Barbashev28202316-45
82GP
16-37
433GP
16-41$5.00M
5 years
$5.72M
5 years
1.39$8.37M
5 years
Reilly Smith26201625-50
82GP
18-43
285GP
22-47$5.00M
5 years
$6.54M
5 years
1.39$8.35M
5 years
Jordan Eberle29201920-39
78GP
26-59
666GP
23-49$5.50M
5 years
$6.44M
5 years
1.32$7.89M
5 years
Craig Smith26201523-44
82GP
19-43
277GP
21-44$4.25M
5 years
$5.68M
5 years
1.29$7.75M
5 years
Jaden Schwartz29202116-43
40GP
23-56
560GP
20-50$5.50M
5 years
$6.44M
5 years
1.29$7.73M
5 years
Jason Zucker26201833-64
82GP
24-43
340GP
29-54$5.50M
5 years
$6.61M
5 years
1.22$7.34M
5 years
Ondrej Palat26201719-57
75GP
20-58
307GP
20-58$5.30M
5 years
$6.75M
5 years
1.16$6.98M
5 years
Andre Burkovsky27202223-63
80GP
19-47
519GP
21-55$5.50M
5 years
$6.37M
5 years
1.16$6.95M
5 years
Oliver Bjorkstrand26202126-64
49GP
22-48
305GP
24-56$5.40M
5 years
$6.33M
5 years
1.13$6.78M
5 years
Brandon Saad29202128-45
44GP
24-48
632GP
26-47$4.50M
5 years
$5.27M
5 years
1.12$6.73M
5 years
*Yegor Sharangovich27202531-59
82GP
24-47
287GP
28-53$5.85M
5 years
$5.85M
5 years
1.10$6.62M
5 years
Ryan Strome29202223-60
74GP
17-47
621GP
20-54$5.00M
5 years
$5.79M
5 years
1.07$6.43M
5 years
*Deal signed one year out – stats from season prior to signing used for signing year stats
**Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

Based on the comps, they’d project a range of $6.4M to $9.7M per year on a five-year deal. Again though, it’s difficult to find many accurate comps to use.

Even the players who did sign with production similar to Boeser often signed when they were younger, which set them up for another big contract in their early 30s. Plus, many of them (Zucker, Palat, Burakovsky, Bjorkstrand) had much less NHL experience, and would all project a deal lower than the $8M per year that Boeser reportedly rejected, so it’s not overly realistic to think this would be what he ends up signing for.

Advertisements

We’re only likely to see this term for Boeser if he can’t get a longer deal at a cap hit that makes sense. As a result, we can expect a five-year deal would likely come at a higher cap hit than what’s been projected for a longer term. While it may be unrealistic to think Boeser could hit the $9M mark on a five-year deal, we can expect somewhere between $8M and $9M would be the likely landing spot, in the unlikely event he does sign a five-year contract.


Projection

The most likely length for Boeser’s deal would be a maximum-term deal. If he heads to free agency, a seven-year deal just under $8M per year (around $55M total) would be the projected range. If there was a change and the Canucks ended up being willing to sign Boeser to a longer deal, they’d be able to offer a slightly lower cap hit than what Boeser could get in free agency, while offering more total money over an eight-year deal than he’d make on a seven-year contract.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
8 years $7.50M$8.50M$7.00M
7 years $7.86M$8.50M$7.00M

If Boeser couldn’t secure a maximum-term contract, the next most likely deal would be either a six-year contract at a similar projected cap hit, or a five-year deal at a higher cap hit.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
6 years $8.00M$8.75M$7.00M
5 years $8.50M$9.00M$8.00M
Advertisements

Leave a comment