Duchene has been a great fit in Dallas, but could earn a big raise if he hits free agency.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

---

Player Overview

Selected third overall in 2009, Matt Duchene began his career with the Colorado Avalanche. With the Avalanche, he was able to establish himself as a top-six center early on and spent parts of nine seasons with the team.

Duchene did end up being dealt to the Ottawa Senators in November 2017, but spent just 118 games with the team, before being flipped to the Columbus Blue Jackets at the following trade deadline as a pending unrestricted free agent.

Upon his contract expiring in 2019, Duchene opted to sign a massive seven-year deal with the Nashville Predators. However, it proved to be a slow start for the forward with his new team, and across his first two seasons in Nashville, Duchene managed just 19 goals and 55 points across 100 games. While Duchene did bounce back for a huge year in the 2021-22 season, and even produced at a decent rate the following year as well, he ended up being bought out by the Predators in the Summer of 2023.

Since then, Duchene has signed two consecutive one-year contracts with the Dallas Stars, and has ended up being a great fit with the team. This season, Duchene produced a point-per-game rate, scoring 30 goals and 82 points.

However, the Stars could struggle to bring back Duchene for a third contract. They’re facing a cap crunch, and the forward is likely due for a big raise. If he does hit free agency, several teams could look to bring him in as an addition to their top-six.

---

What We Know

• Duchene seemed keen on getting more term on his next contract, stating that he was seeking stability, and that “one-year deals are tough.”
• The Stars are facing a cap crunch, with limited space remaining to fill out their roster.
• Duchene seems to prefer to stay with the Stars if possible.

---

Comparables

Below, we examine what Duchene’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page. With Duchene now 34 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were near his age at the time of signing.

2 YEARS

With Duchene seeking more term on his next deal and now coming off a great season, two years seems like the shortest possible deal we can expect him to sign.

That said, typically, a player of Duchene’s production – even at his age – would be able to get more term on his contract than just two years.

Looking at the sample of forwards who have signed for two years below, and Duchene has outproduced just about all of them. The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s points-per-82 production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Duchene can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis (highlighted on the far right of the table).

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Matt Duchene	34	2025	30-82 82GP	27-64 1138GP	29-72
**Nick Foligno	34	2021	12-33 49GP	17-42 957GP	15-38	$3.80M 2 years	$4.45M 2 years	1.17	$8.43M 2 years
Mikko Koivu	35	2018	18-59 80GP	17-60 843GP	18-60	$5.50M 2 years	$6.61M 2 years	1.10	$7.93M 2 years
Tomas Tatar	31	2021	16-49 50GP	23-49 625GP	20-49	$4.50M 2 years	$5.27M 2 years	1.08	$7.74M 2 years
Kyle Palmieri	34	2025	24-48 82GP	25-48 900GP	25-48	$4.75M 2 years	$4.75M 2 years	0.99	$7.13M 2 years
*Mikael Backlund	35	2024	19-56 82GP	17-44 908GP	18-50	$4.50M 2 years	$4.88M 2 years	0.98	$7.02M 2 years
**Jordan Eberle	34	2024	19-51 59GP	24-57 999GP	22-54	$4.75M 2 years	$5.15M 2 years	0.95	$6.87M 2 years
David Perron	34	2022	33-70 67GP	23-56 973GP	28-63	$4.75M 2 years	$5.50M 2 years	0.87	$6.29M 2 years
**Jason Zucker	33	2025	27-67 54GP	23-45 751GP	25-56	$4.75M 2 years	$4.75M 2 years	0.85	$6.11M 2 years
Vladimir Tarasenko	33	2024	25-59 76GP	32-69 751GP	29-64	$4.75M 2 years	$5.15M 2 years	0.80	$5.79M 2 years
Gustav Nyquist	34	2023	18-43 51GP	20-50 703GP	19-47	$3.19M 2 years	$3.65M 2 years	0.78	$5.59M 2 years
***Viktor Arvidsson	31	2024	28-64 95GP	27-54 546GP	28-59	$4.00M 2 years	$4.34M 2 years	0.74	$5.30M 2 years
Adam Henrique	34	2024	24-51 82GP	24-48 912GP	24-50	$3.00M 2 years	$3.26M 2 years	0.65	$4.69M 2 years

Aside from one comparable on both the high end and low end, all other comps would project Duchene’s cap hit to fall somewhere between $5.3M on the low end, up to $7.9M on the high end.

A couple of factors point to Duchene likely being on the higher end of this range. If he does hit free agency, Duchene could almost certainly get a longer contract, meaning he’d likely only be looking at a two-year deal if the cap hit was higher than what he could get on a longer deal. Plus, the majority of comps listed would be wingers, whereas Duchene would likely be paid at a bit of a premium in comparison as a center. Additionally, the fact that his production was higher than just about any comp listed points to a high cap hit.

Of course, Duchene could always take a low-cost, two-year deal from Dallas or anyone else, if he likes the fit. But at least in terms of value, Duchene could likely find himself towards the upper end of these projections, in the unlikely event he takes a two-year deal.

---

3 YEARS

Three years may be the most likely term for Duchene’s deal, with quite a few solid comparables below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Matt Duchene	34	2025	30-82 82GP	27-64 1138GP	29-72
Brock Nelson	34	2025	27-57 82GP	25-48 900GP	27-53	$7.50M 3 years	$7.50M 3 years	1.42	$10.19M 3 years
Paul Stastny	34	2018	22-50 66GP	23-66 742GP	23-58	$6.50M 3 years	$7.81M 3 years	1.35	$9.70M 3 years
Tyler Bozak	32	2018	11-44 81GP	19-50 594GP	15-47	$5.00M 3 years	$6.01M 3 years	1.28	$9.21M 3 years
Joe Pavelski	35	2019	42-70 76GP	30-65 963GP	36-68	$7.00M 3 years	$8.20M 3 years	1.21	$8.68M 3 years
Claude Giroux	34	2022	23-71 75GP	24-74 1018GP	24-73	$6.50M 3 years	$7.52M 3 years	1.03	$7.42M 3 years
*Nino Niederreiter	32	2024	25-46 99GP	20-41 756GP	23-44	$4.00M 3 years	$4.34M 3 years	0.99	$7.10M 3 years
Mike Hoffman	32	2021	27-57 82GP	28-59 545GP	28-58	$4.50M 3 years	$5.27M 3 years	0.91	$6.54M 3 years
Taylor Hall	34	2025	19-45 77GP	26-67 751GP	23-56	$3.17M 3 years	$3.17M 3 years	0.57	$4.08M 3 years

There would be a wide range of projections from the comps above, but we do see a pattern in terms of actual cap hit from some of the more recent centers to sign. All of Claude Giroux, Paul Stastny, Joe Pavelski, and Brock Nelson signed their deals for between $6.5M and $7.5M. Notably, Giroux and Pavelski also had fairly similar production to Duchene.

At the same time, Nelson and Stastny also signed for around the same cap hit, despite both centers having production that was quite a bit lower. As a result, it seems like difference in production may not necessarily have a massive impact in terms of overall cap hit, when it comes to a top-six center signing for this term in their mid-30s.

We’re likely looking at a three-year deal to come in somewhere between the $6.5M and $7.5M mark, based on the deals signed by those four comparable centers, and with the rising cap, we’d be more likely to see him hit the $7M mark.

---

4 YEARS

A four-year deal is likely the longest contract we’d see for Duchene, with comparables below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $95.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Matt Duchene	34	2025	30-82 82GP	27-64 1138GP	29-72
Alex Killorn	34	2023	27-64 53GP	20-47 991GP	24-56	$6.25M 4 years	$7.15M 4 years	1.28	$9.19M 4 years
Alexander Steen	33	2017	21-64 67GP	22-53 746GP	22-59	$5.75M 4 years	$7.32M 4 years	1.24	$8.93M 4 years
Tyler Toffoli	32	2024	34-57 79GP	26-53 812GP	30-55	$6.00M 4 years	$6.51M 4 years	1.18	$8.52M 4 years
Steven Stamkos	34	2024	42-84 79GP	42-86 1082GP	42-85	$8.00M 4 years	$8.68M 4 years	1.02	$7.35M 4 years
Ryan O’Reilly	32	2023	25-46 53GP	21-58 991GP	23-52	$4.50M 4 years	$5.15M 4 years	0.99	$7.13M 4 years
Jordan Staal	35	2023	17-34 82GP	19-45 1173GP	18-40	$2.90M 4 years	$3.32M 4 years	0.83	$5.97M 4 years
Evgeni Malkin	36	2022	40-84 82GP	37-96 981GP	39-90	$6.10M 4 years	$7.06M 4 years	0.78	$5.65M 4 years

The projections have a fairly wide range, as high as $9.2M, and as low as $5.65M. At the same time, we can expect Duchene would likely be due for a lower cap hit on a four-year deal than on a two or three-year deal. While he’s produced very well in Dallas, he’s still just two years removed from a buy-out, and if he is getting another longer-term deal, it’s likely to be at somewhat of a reduced cap hit.

Perhaps the best comparables would be the deals for the most recent, center extensions at the bottom of the table. On one hand, Duchene probably won’t be paid at the same rate as Steven Stamkos was when he hit free agency last summer. But he likely wouldn’t come in as low as the likes of Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin, who both took notable discounts over a four-year deal, given they were older at the time of signing and extended with their long-time team.

As a result, it’s reasonable to think Duchene’s cap hit on a four-year contract could come in somewhere between the projections from the Stamkos/O’Reilly contracts, and the Staal/Malkin contracts, likely landing somewhere above the $6M mark but below the $7M mark.

---

Projection

Given the fact that Duchene seems to want a multi-year deal, it’s likely we’ll see his contract come in somewhere between two years on the low end, up to four years on the high end. At his age, Duchene’s cap hit is likely to be higher if he signs a deal with minimal term, as opposed to if he signs a longer contract.

Based on the forward’s production, he’s in line for a pretty significant raise if he hits free agency. At the same time, we’ve seen him be willing to take a pay cut for the right fit previously. He could’ve made much more elsewhere than the one-year, $3M deal he signed with Dallas last year, but opted to extend with the team anyways.

So while the table below represents what Duchene’s value may be in free agency, there’s certainly a chance he could take less to remain in Dallas, or to sign in a different desired location.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
2 years	$7.50M	$8.00M	$5.50M
3 years	$7.00M	$7.50M	$5.00M
4 years	$6.50M	$7.50M	$4.50M