Marner would be the top free agent available this year, if he doesn’t extend in Toronto.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Selected fourth overall in 2015, Mitch Marner has spent his entire professional career with the Toronto Maple Leafs. After returning to the OHL for the 2015-16 season, Marner made the jump to the NHL the following year.

Since then, Marner has spent nine seasons in Toronto, scoring at an 82-game pace of 28 goals and 92 points across 657 games with the Maple Leafs. He’s established himself as one of the game’s top wingers over that time, and while he won’t score goals at as high of a rate as other elite forwards, he’s been one of the NHL’s best playmakers. Marner finished third in assists this season, and has also gained the reputation as one of the league’s better defensive forwards, receiving Selke Trophy votes in seven straight seasons.

However, Marner’s future in Toronto is now completely up in the air. Factoring in the Maple Leafs’ lack of playoff success, and Marner’s status as a pending unrestricted free agent, and a split could certainly be on the horizon. If he does hit the market on July 1, Marner would be the clear top free agent available, and perhaps the highest-profile player to hit free agency in recent memory.

What We Know

• Marner was somewhat noncommittal about his future in Toronto at the end of the season, noting that he had enjoyed his time with the team, but not being vocal about a desire to return.
• Chris Johnston wrote in The Athletic that there’s no reason to believe that Marner will sign an extension with the Maple Leafs, either on July 1 or prior to that point.
• Marner was reportedly asked to waive his no-movement clause prior to the trade deadline in a potential trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, but declined to do so.
• The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reported he does not believe Marner has fully shut the door on re-signing in Toronto. However, Pagnotta also reported that all of the Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, Utah Mammoth, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks are teams he would expect to pursue Marner, if he does hit free agency.
• James Mirtle reported in The Athletic that the Anaheim Ducks could be the highest bidder for Marner, with an offer possible surpassing $14M per year if he’s available this summer.

Comparables

Below, we examine what Marner’s deal could look like, based on previous contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Marner now 28 years old, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing, and who produced at a rate of at least 60 points per 82 over their career, and at least 80 points per 82 in their signing year. Note: ages listed in the tables below are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7/8 YEARS

Marner will have no issue getting a maximum-term deal – whether that’s eight years in Toronto, or seven years elsewhere. There’s always the small possibility he could opt for a shorter deal like teammate Auston Matthews did in order to cash in on another big deal later with a rising cap, but this is still extremely uncommon with top unrestricted free agents.

Below is a list of comparable wingers, who signed maximum-term deals, and fit the production criteria discussed above.

The table uses a system of establishing a cost-per-points basis, using the middle ground between a player’s production over their signing year, and over their career. From there, a comparable player’s cap hit from the first year of their contract is applied to a $95.5M salary cap using the same percentage against the salary cap, and a payment rate can be established based on how much the player was paid compared to their production. Each contract can then project how much Marner can be expected to make, based on the same cost-per-points basis.

Based on the 13 comparables above, the deals would project a maximum-term contract for Marner to be between $11.1M on the low end, up to $17.2M on the high end. Of course, Patrick Kane’s contract is a bit of an outlier, given that the other 12 contracts would project Marner at $15.5M per year or less.

We do also see that the contracts signed further back project a higher cap hit for Marner. The top four projections would all come from contracts that were signed prior to 2020, while eight of the nine other comparables lower on the table began in 2022 or later. As a result, at least in terms of establishing Marner’s projected value on an eight-year deal, a fair value is more likely to be determined by the more recent deals lower down the table.

Looking at the nine contracts from Mikko Rantanen down to Jake Guentzel, these deals would point to a value of somewhere between $11.1M and about $12.9M per year. At the same time, we can also point to why some of the contracts lower down the table carry a lower payment rate. Sam Reinhart and Jake Guentzel in particular both signed their contracts in Florida with no income state tax (as did Nikita Kucherov), which meant they can take home a higher percentage of the value of the contract, even if the cap hit was lower than what other players may have signed for in other markets. Meanwhile, Johnny Gaudreau had signed for less with the Columbus Blue Jackets than he could’ve made if he had re-signed in Calgary. Jonathan Huberdeau also began his contract when he was two years older than Marner, which may have slightly reduced his value in comparison, given there would be a bit more risk of decline.

As a result, many of the deals lower down the table likely project a cap hit lower than what Marner’s expected value could be in Toronto. Perhaps some of the best comparables would be the deals signed recently by the likes of Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak and William Nylander. All three players had produced at a very high rate prior to signing, and began their new contract over the past two years.

Each of the three contracts from Rantanen, Pastrnak and Nylander would project an eight-year contract for Marner to come in between $12.74M and $12.92M per year, which seems like a more realistic range, if he were to re-sign in Toronto.

Still, there’s the fact that Rantanen also signed with a team where state tax isn’t at play, and Marner is able to play in all situations as well, while the others wouldn’t be used to kill penalties. Plus, comparing him to two recent contracts for top centers in Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl, and both would project Marner coming in above $13M per year.

Of course, centers do typically get paid at a premium over wingers, but it points to the fact that there’s at least an argument for Marner getting a bit more than the range that would be projected from the Rantanen, Pastrnak and Nylander deals.

So it’s possible his value could be up to $13M per year on an eight-year deal, if he extended in Toronto.

However, there’s also a strong likelihood that Marner’s cap hit could exceed that mark, if he does in fact test free agency. He’d only be able to sign a seven-year deal, but could likely get close to the same total value as projected for an eight-year contract, based on the number of teams lining up to present offers.

A good example is Artemi Panarin, who’s one of very few examples of elite wingers reaching free agency. Panarin signed a seven-year deal at an $11.64M cap hit in 2019, which translates to a $13.64M cap hit on a $95.5M salary cap.

However, Panarin’s points per 82 production was roughly 10 points lower than Marner’s, both over his signing year, and over his career. Panarin’s contract would project Marner at $15.5M on a seven-year deal, and while that may be high, we can expect Marner could certainly clear Panarin’s adjusted $13.6M cap hit, if he was looking for the most money possible. With the Jamie Benn and Mark Stone contracts also projecting a deal for Marner in the $14.5M range, and the report from James Mirtle that the Ducks could be willing to go above $14M, it’s certainly possible that Marner could set a record for the highest cap hit of all-time, if he does hit free agency.

Projection

If Marner does re-sign in Toronto, we have a fairly recent group of comparables that define the range we can expect him to sign at. The Maple Leafs have the benefit of offering an eighth year, which could help them to offer more total dollars over a longer term.

If Marner hits free agency though, all bets are off, just given how many teams will be interested. We saw how big of a contract Panarin was able to get six years ago, and Marner is an even higher-profile player now compared to Panarin at that time. If Marner does seek the most money possible in free agency, we’re likely to see him hit the $14M mark, if not higher.