Nelson signed an extension to remain with the Avalanche.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Colorado Avalanche signed forward Brock Nelson to a three-year contract extension last week, carrying a $7.5M cap hit. The contract carries a no-trade clause for the first two years of the deal, before becoming a 15-team no-trade list in 2027, per PuckPedia.com.

Below, we examine whether the Avalanche are getting fair value with this contract.

Player Overview

Selected 30th overall by the New York Islanders in 2010, Brock Nelson went on to spend parts of 12 NHL seasons with the organization. Through the first five years of his career, Nelson was a serviceable middle-six centerman, averaging 21 goals and 39 points per 82 over the first 400 games of his career.

However, when John Tavares departed in free agency to join the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018, Nelson was able to grow his role. Becoming the Islanders’ second-line center, Nelson’s production rose from then on, peaking between the 2021-22 and 2023-24 seasons. Over those three years, Nelson scored at an 82-game pace of 37 goals and 71 points.

But with Nelson set to become a free agent this summer and the Islanders outside the playoff race, Nelson was dealt to the Colorado Avalanche, changing teams for the first time in his NHL career.

Nelson is a fairly well-rounded center, who has good speed and agility for a player of his size. His offensive impact is tied to his ability to score goals at a high rate, with both a fast release and hard shot, and the ability to finish in-close. Now signed to a three-year extension, Nelson will continue to slot in as Colorado’s second-line center going forward.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Nelson’s deal compares to recent contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Nelson turning 34 years old in October, the comparables used will generally be centers who were near his age in the first year of their contract, with select wingers included as well. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

3 YEARS

We have seen some examples of other centers around the same age sign three-year deals in the past, which help in terms of a comparison for Nelson’s contract. At the same time, none of them would have projected a cap hit as high as $7.5M for Nelson, on a cost-per-points basis.

The highest projection would come from the Paul Stastny contract, which Stastny signed at the same age in 2018. Stastny had relatively similar production to Nelson in his signing year, and the contract would’ve projected a three-year deal for Nelson to come in at $7.16M.

However, contracts for Joe Pavelski and Tyler Bozak would’ve projected a lower number than that, at $6.4M and $6.8M respectively. Meanwhile, the cost per points basis from the Claude Giroux contract would’ve projected Nelson’s deal to come in around $5.5M, though Giroux did pretty clearly take a pay cut to sign with the Ottawa Senators in 2022.

Factor in Giroux’s actual $6.5M cap hit, along with the projections from the Pavelski and Bozak contracts, and there’s an argument to be made that Nelson’s cap hit should’ve come in at a max of around $7M. Even using the highest-projecting contract from the Stastny deal, and it would put Nelson only slightly above that mark.

Of course, Nelson’s production has been much higher over the last five years than it was in the first five years of his career. As a result, his career production is a little lower than what we can reasonably expect him to produce from year to year. Again though, we did see that production slip back a little bit this year, and with Nelson turning 34 years old this season, it’s not a given that he’ll be able to get back to a pace of over 60+ points per year.

At least based on the limited comparables available for three-year deals, there’s an argument to be made that a three-year deal for Nelson in his mid-30s should’ve came in a little bit lower, likely at a cap of around $7M per year.

4 YEARS

There was likely the possibility of Nelson securing a four-year deal in free agency instead, but it almost certainly would’ve resulted in a lower cap hit than his $7.5M.

With the comparables at the bottom of the table, Ryan O’Reilly took less than he could’ve made on his deal in 2023, and Evgeni Malkin signed when he was a couple years older, which represent the lower projections.

At the same time, all other comparables would’ve had Nelson between $5.4M and $6.8M per year on a four-year deal. Nelson likely would’ve gotten a bit of a premium over some of the wingers listed based on his position down the middle, but there’s a clear range that he likely wouldn’t have greatly exceeded a $6.5M cap hit on a four-year contract.

Final Analysis

Nelson’s deal comes in at a reasonable length, with the likely term for his contract expected to be either three or four years.

At the same time, his cap hit does come in higher than expected on a three-year deal. It’s not a huge overpayment, but most comparables would’ve had Nelson at $7M per year or less.