Coronato signed a long-term extension with the Calgary Flames in May.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Calgary Flames signed forward Matt Coronato to a seven-year extension last month, which carries a $6.5M cap hit. The deal will come with a 10-team no-trade list for the final two years of the contract per PuckPedia.com, beginning in 2030.

Below, we take a look at whether the Flames are getting fair value with the deal.

Player Overview

Selected 13th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, Matt Coronato was a standout in the USHL, scoring 48 goals across 51 games in his draft year. The winger then spent the next two seasons playing in the NCAA, where he scored 38 goals and 72 points across 68 games with Harvard University.

Coronato made the jump to professional hockey in 2023, splitting the 2023-24 season between the NHL and AHL, before taking a full-time spot with the Flames this past season.

In his first full year with the Flames, the winger scored 24 goals and 47 points in 77 games, finishing third on the team in both goals and points.

Still just 22 years old, Coronato is poised to be a piece for the Flames to build around up front. He can score goals at a high rate, and is projected to be a long-term, top-six forward at minimum.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Coronato’s deal compares to recent contracts for other forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Coronato turning 23 years old in November, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age in the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7 YEARS

With Coronato set to become a restricted free agent this summer, the Flames opted to commit to the winger long-term right away. It’s a matter of the team betting on his potential, which we’ve seen for other wingers around a similar age.

Eight comparable wingers are listed in the table below, who also signed seven-year extensions in their early 20s.

Seven of the eight comps above also signed their extension coming off their bridge deal, with Alexis Lafreniere as the one outlier.

With the comps, we do see a pretty clear range of where most would’ve projected Coronato’s deal to come in. Of the group, five of the eight comps would’ve projected that a seven-year deal for Coronato would come in between about $6.1M and $6.75M, which is right in line with his $6.5M cap hit.

Most players listed had relatively similar NHL experience, with the majority playing less than 200 games before signing their extension. Nick Schmaltz in particular also had a fairly similar points-per-82 rate in both his signing year, and over his career. While Schmaltz did spend quite a bit of time at center as opposed to on the winger prior to signing his deal, it acts as a fairly decent comparable contract, which would’ve projected Coronato’s contract to come in around a $6.3M cap hit, on a cost per points basis.

So while there are some outliers on either side, with the Brady Tkachuk contract projecting a much higher cap hit, and the contracts for Nikolaj Ehlers and Viktor Arvidsson projecting a lower cap hit, five of the eight deals would’ve projected a seven-year contract for Coronato to come in close to the $6.5M cap hit that he ended up signing for.

3 YEARS

While Coronato signed a long-term extension, below is a quick look at what a bridge-deal could’ve looked like for the winger, based on eight comparable contracts.

Dawson Mercer’s deal is the one outlier of the group, which would’ve projected a three-year deal for Coronato to come in above $5M. However, Mercer had also played over twice the games at the time of signing, which points to a reason why his deal would’ve been more expensive, compared to the seven other comps who had all played less than 135 NHL games before signing.

Overall though, seven of the eight comps would’ve projected a three-year deal for Coronato to come in between $3.25M to $4.3M, with five of those comps projecting below $4M. So we can assume that if the Flames had opted for a three-year bridge-deal instead, it likely would’ve came in a bit below the $4M mark.

Final Analysis

In signing a long-term extension, the Flames are betting on Coronato being a long-term, impact winger. Opting for a seven-year deal now removes the risk that Coronato could’ve boosted his production over a bridge-deal, setting himself up for a much bigger payday later on.

His $6.5M cap hit also looks reasonable based on where comps would’ve projected, with many putting Coronato’s deal at a likely range of between $6.1M and $6.75M on a seven-year contract.

Especially with a rising cap, this is a worthwhile gamble for Calgary, and it’s a contract that could end up providing great value in the coming years if Coronato can continue to grow as a player.