Andersen will return for a fifth season in Carolina.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Carolina Hurricanes signed goaltender Frederik Andersen to a one-year contract extension in May. The deal carries a $2.75 million cap hit, with up to an additional $750,000 in performance bonuses.

Below, we take a look at whether the Hurricanes are getting fair value with the contract.

Player Overview

Making the jump to the NHL in the 2013-14 season, Frederik Andersen put together three really strong years with the Anaheim Ducks to being his career. Posting a .918 save percentage across 125 games with the Ducks in that time, Andersen showed the potential to be a long-term starter. However, with a younger goalie at the team’s disposal in John Gibson, Andersen was shipped to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the summer of 2016.

Upon joining the Maple Leafs, Andersen’s usage quickly rose, playing 60+ games in his first three seasons with the team, while posting similarly strong results. However, the netminder saw a bit of a decline in his final two years in Toronto, managing just a .905 save percentage across 76 games in that period.

Departing the team as a free agent in 2021, Andersen signed with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Andersen’s first season in Carolina couldn’t have gone better, posting an excellent .922 save percentage across 52 games, and capturing the Jennings Trophy alongside Antti Raanta.

However, Andersen has struggled to stay healthy since then, playing in just 72 of a possible 246 regular season games over the last three seasons in Carolina, which makes up less than 30 percent of his team’s games. Andersen has shown he can still be one of the league’s better goalies when healthy, and he was excellent in the first two rounds of the playoffs this season, but the concern remains how often he’ll be available going forward.

Comparables

Below, we examine how Andersen’s deal compares to recent contracts for other goalies around a similar age.

With Andersen turning 36 years old in October the comparables used will generally be goalies who were 34 years old or above in the first year of their contract. Note: ages listed in the table are based on a player’s age by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

1 YEAR

Andersen taking a one-year deal was likely the most expected option. While a multi-year deal isn’t underheard of for a goalie around his age, his injury history made anything more than a single-year extension very unlikely.

At the same time, it’s questionable as to whether his $2.75M cap hit (and potential $3.5M AAV when factoring in the bonuses) is a slight overpayment.

Based on the netminders below, Andersen started a lower percentage of his team’s games in his signing year than any other goalie at a $2M cap hit or above, while also posting a lower signing year save percentage than most as well. Of course, the deal was signed after the first round of the playoffs, but at least in a regular season comparison, Andersen’s numbers don’t fare that well.

He arguably aligns closer to the goalies who signed for below a $2M cap hit (even adjusted to a $95.5M salary cap). On the lower end of the table, we see generally see goalies who started a lower percentage of their team’s games, and had a lower signing year save percentage as well. That said, the bulk of the goalies at the bottom of the table were primarily used in a backup role, while Andersen, when healthy, is used as a starter.

But Andersen’s trouble staying healthy has been a recurring issue over the last few seasons. He hasn’t played in even 45 percent of his team’s regular season games in any of the past three years, so there’s certainly a question as to whether that can change going forward.

Like Andersen, the goalies listed near the bottom of the table did often have performance bonuses factored into their contracts as well, such as Jaroslov Halak and Cam Talbot. At the same time, those goalies also started with a much lower cap hit to begin with.

Cam Talbot is a good example. He played in 36 games with the Ottawa Senators at a nearly identical signing year save percentage, before signing a one-year deal at the same age. He signed for just a $1 million cap hit, with an additional $1 million in possible performance bonuses.

At least comparing Andersen’s numbers and usage to other goalies on the table, it’s a little bit tough to justify a $2.75M cap hit. Even Marc-Andre Fleury, who had a lower signing year save percentage than Andersen and signed at a $2.5M cap hit, reached 40 games in the season prior to signing his 2024 extension.

So while the low cap hit won’t cause the Hurricanes any issues, it still looks as though Andersen’s $2.75M cap hit comes in a bit higher than expected, compared to other goalies who signed one-year deals at a similar age.

2 YEARS

While Andersen signed a one-year deal, a table below represents goalies around a similar age who signed two-year contracts.

It’s a similar story, with Andersen having a lower signing year save percentage than every goalie listed, while also starting a much lower percentage of games in his signing year. As a result, a multi-year deal was always very unlikely for Andersen at this point.

Final Analysis

Andersen’s one-year deal comes in at a low enough cap hit that there’s really not much risk for Carolina. There was also precedent for the performance bonuses to be factored in, based on other goalies listed who signed at 35 years old or above.

At the same time, his $2.75M cap hit does still come in a little bit higher than expected, when compared to other netminders who signed a one-year deal.

Part of this can likely be attributed to a thin free agent goalie market, though. Pyotr Kochetkov has often been inconsistent for the Hurricanes, and bringing in an upgrade over Andersen would’ve been a challenge, without spending assets via trade.

When healthy, Andersen can still be a huge asset for Carolina, and if he can even get to the 40-game mark in the 2025-26 season, his contract will look good. It’ll just be a matter of how often Andersen is available.