Pionk would have been one of the top free agent defensemen available.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Winnipeg Jets signed defenseman Neal Pionk to a six-year contract on Thursday, carrying a $7 million cap hit. The new deal will kick in for the 2025-26 NHL season.

Below, we examine how the deal looks for the Jets and whether they’re getting fair value.

Player Overview

An undrafted defenseman, Neal Pionk originally signed with the New York Rangers in 2017, following two years in the NCAA. He split his first professional year between the NHL and AHL, where he ended up posting 14 points in 28 games with the New York Rangers. Making a full-time jump to the NHL the next season, Pionk posted 26 points across 73 games, while averaging over 21 minutes per game.

However, Pionk was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets in 2019, as part of the trade which sent Jacob Trouba the other way. Since the trade, Pionk has established himself as a huge part of the Jets’ defense group.

Across 435 games with Winnipeg, Pionk has scored at an 82-game pace of 39 points. He’s consistently been one of the biggest sources of offense from the Jets’ blue line, and ranked third on the team this season with a plus-21 rating. Pionk also faced the highest quality of competition of any defenseman on the team this season, per Dobber’s Player Usage Chart.

With a six-year extension in place, Pionk will continue to be a pillar of the team’s blue line for the forseeable future.

Comparables

Below we take a look at comparables for Pionk’s six-year deal, to get a sense of whether it was an overpayment, an underpayment, or a fair deal. Comparables will generally include defensemen who were between 28 and 32 years old in the first year of their contract, with Pionk turning 30 years old in July.

Each table will include the comparable defenders’ production and ice time in their signing year, and over their career. It’ll also include their cap hit in the first year of their contract, and their adjusted cap hit on an $95.5M salary cap, as currently projected for the 2025-26 season, when Pionk’s deal will begin.

6 YEARS

At six years, Pionk’s extension actually comes in a bit shorter than expected. There have been some recent examples of six-year deals (listed below), such as Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Nikita Zadorov, and Marcus Pettersson. However, none of them were really that comparable to Pionk statistically.

Pionk’s production and career ice time was quite a bit higher than every comp listed above. With Roy and Pesce in particular, both signed last year for adjusted cap hits around $6M and $6.25M respectively, so it’s surprising that Pionk’s $7M cap hit comes in as close to theirs as it does. Generally, Pionk was used in a larger role, and contributed significantly more offensively.

Nate Schmidt did have more similar numbers in his signing year, but had much lower career numbers, and only about half as much NHL experience. As a result, Pionk’s cap hit coming in $7M ends up looking very reasonable.

7 YEARS

The expected length for Pionk’s deal would have been a seven or eight-year contract. Looking at comps who signed for seven years around the same age, they’re much more comparable statistically.

While Pionk may not compare quite as well to the players higher on this table, his stats align well against most defenders from Jared Spurgeon and below.

Pionk had higher usage than Keith Yandle ($8.3M adjusted cap hit) for example, while Yandle’s numbers were only better in terms of career production. Then with Ryan McDonagh, while McDonagh’s usage was higher, Pionk had slightly better production.

While Pionk didn’t compare as well to Devon Toews, a great comparable to justify Pionk’s value is Brandon Montour ($7.75M adjusted cap hit). The defenseman signed at the same age as Pionk, and while Montour’s signing year ice time was higher, the two defenders had a nearly identical pace for career production, and Montour was slightly higher in signing year production and career ice time.

Brady Skjei, who also signed a seven-year deal last offseason at a $7M cap hit ($7.6M adjusted), would be another good comp. Pionk and Skjei had similar signing year production, while Pionk had higher career production, and higher ice time over his signing year, and his career.

Meanwhile, Pionk’s numbers are better than those of Jonas Brodin (Brodin’s cap hit would be around $7M when adjusted to a $95.5M salary cap). The defenders had nearly identical career ice time, but Pionk was a bit higher in signing year ice time, and was significantly higher in production.

Based on comparisons to Montour, Skjei and Brodin, there’s a strong argument that Pionk’s value could’ve been higher than any of them, if he hit free agency. As a result, a projection for a seven-year contract in free agency would’ve came in somewhere between $7.5M and $8M per year.

Final Analysis

The Jets look very good coming out of this deal. Based on comparables, it appears as though Pionk could’ve been in line for a longer deal in free agency, while his cap hit also comes in cheaper than expected. If Pionk had hit free agency, there’s an argument that his expected value could’ve been above $7.5M per year, on a seven-year contract.

Given Pionk will be 30 years old this summer, the Jets avoid some risk near the end of the deal with a six-year contract instead, and also get Pionk locked up cheaper than expected. Especially with the salary cap continuing to rise over the coming years, Winnipeg should get very good value with the extension.