The Stars locked up their young star at a very reasonable price.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Dallas Stars signed forward Wyatt Johnston to a five-year contract extension on the day of the 2025 NHL trade deadline, carrying an $8.4 million cap hit. The deal kicks in for the 2025-26 season and carries a partial no-trade clause in the final year of the contract.

Below, we’ll examine how the extension looks for Dallas, and what kind of value they’re getting.

Player Overview

Selected 23rd overall by the Dallas Stars in 2021, it was a little bit difficult to predict what the organization had in Wyatt Johnston, at the time the pick was made.

Due to the COVID shutdowns, Johnston missed the entire 2020-21 OHL season, which would’ve acted as his draft year. As a result, at the time in which Johnston was selected, he hadn’t played a regular season OHL game in well over a year.

Upon returning to the Windsor Spitfires for the 2021-22 season though, Johnston lit up the league for 46 goals and 124 games in 68 OHL games, leading the entire CHL in points.

Making the jump the NHL the following season, Johnston had a strong rookie year as just a 19-year-old, scoring 24 goals and 41 points. But it was the following season where Johnston really broke out, managing 32 goals and 65 regular season points, before leading the Stars in playoff scoring with 10 goals in 19 games.

With Johnston likely to set a new career-high in points this season and still just in his early 20s, the forward looks poised for huge NHL success. Now extended with the Stars until 2030, and he’ll be one of the players counted on to help take Dallas to new heights.

Comparables

Below we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Stars, and whether it carries fair value. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Johnston turning 22 years old in May, comparables were generally kept to centers who were between 21 and 24 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

5 YEARS

Looking at the term in which Johnston signed for, there’s a very clear range of projections, based on comparables.

Based on the five center comps above, each of those contracts would’ve projected Johnston’s cap hit to be above $9M on a five-year deal.

While Auston Matthews is an outlier here, with by far the highest production of any player on the table, all four other comps would have still projected a five-year contract for Johnston to come in between $9.10M and $9.75M. Johnston scored goals at a higher rate than most of the comps listed, and had similar NHL experience. So other than the state tax factor, there aren’t any clear factors that should’ve result in Johnston’s cap hit coming in so much lower than projected.

Simply put, getting Johnston locked up at a $8.4M cap hit (potentially close to $1M below market value) is a big win for Dallas.

While Johnston may have signed for five years, below, we take a look at what deals at a longer or shorter length may have looked like.

8 YEARS

Examining what centers who signed at a similar age would’ve projected for Johnston’s contract, there’s a bit of a wide range.

However, removing the two outliers on the high end (Hughes and Kotkaniemi) and the two outliers on the low end (Scheifele and Thomas), and there’s a range of seven other comps projecting an eight-year contract between $9.9M and $11.7M. Removing the Norris contract from there as a comp, and it would leave a range of six comps all projecting between $10.6M and $11.7M per year for Johnston, on an eight-year deal.

There are also two good comps in Leon Draisaitl and Jack Eichel in particular, who each had very comparable numbers to Johnston before signing. The payment rate from the contracts for those two players would’ve projected an eight-year deal for Johnston to come in at $11M and $11.7M per year respectively.

Given the Stars were able to get Johnston for below market value on his five-year deal, perhaps they could’ve came in below that range on a maximum-term contract. But at least in terms of market value on an eight-year deal, factoring in the rising cap, most comps would’ve projected a cap hit above $10.5M per year for Johnston.

3 YEARS

Projecting what a bridge deal would’ve looked like for Johnston, and the Stars could’ve saved some money by opting for a shorter extension.

Based on the six comps above, all would’ve projected a three-year deal for Johnston to come in between $6.5M and $8.4M.

There are some really good comps within this group of contracts as well: Mathew Barzal had Elias Pettersson in particular had similar production to Johnston (even if it was via lower signing year stats, but higher career stats). These deals would’ve projected Johnston’s cap hit to come in at $7.75M and $8.37M on a three-year deal, respectively.

Again, based on the number Dallas was able to sign Johnston at for a five-year deal, perhaps they could’ve came in lower than this mark. But comparable deals would’ve projected a three-year deal for Johnston to cost between $7.5M and $8M per year.

Final Analysis

With the five-year deal, the Stars are getting great value.

All five listed contract comparables for a five-year deal would’ve projected Johnston to cost above $9M per year. State tax may certainly play a role here, but the deal is a huge win for Dallas, with Johnston’s $8.4M coming in quite a cheaper than expected.

Perhaps the Stars should’ve tried to pull the trigger on a longer deal, considering Johnston’s age and the rising cap. At the same time, even if they were able to still get him below market value at that length, as they did for a five-year deal, it still would’ve been quite a bit more costly. Plus, from Johnston’s perspective, he’ll now get to hit free agency at just 27 years old, likely set for another big payout at that point.

The five-year extension looks great for the Stars, and should only provide more value as the cap goes up, and Johnston’s NHL experience grows.