Rantanen signed an eight-year contract after being dealt to the Dallas Stars.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Dallas Stars managed to acquire Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday, and signed the forward to an eight-year contract at a $12M cap hit. The deal kicks in for the 2025-26 season, and carries a no-move clause.

Below, we compare Rantanen’s deal to comparable contracts to determine how the deal looks for the Stars.

Player Overview

Selected 10th overall by the Colorado Avalanche in 2015, Mikko Rantanen has been a star in the NHL for close to a decade.

Rantanen made the full-time jump to the NHL in 2016, before experiencing a breakout year the following season as a 21-year-old, where he scored 29 goals and 84 points in 81 games. From there, the winger went on to score at a pace of 90 points per 82 games over his tenure with the Avalanche.

A proven postseason performer, Rantanen led all Avalanche forwards in playoff points in 2022, on route to their Stanley Cup win. Post-Cup win, Rantanen only upped his game, posting 55 goals in the 2022-23 season, and hitting the 100-point mark in back-to-back years.

But with Rantanen set to become a free agent this summer and no contract being worked out with the Avalanche by the mid-season mark, the organization shocked the hockey world in January by dealing the winger to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Rantanen seemed to be the perfect fit in Carolina on paper, who looked like they’d greatly benefit from a big addition up front, to put forth a more dynamic offense. However, Rantanen’s tenure didn’t go quite as planned in Carolina, where he managed just two goals and six points in 13 games with the team. With the Hurricanes unable to work out an extension for Rantanen and potentially in a position to lose him in the offseason for nothing, the team opted to flip him to the Dallas Stars just before the trade deadline.

The 6-foot-4 forward doesn’t necessarily play a speed-based game, but will be extremely effective in protecting the puck to find a play in the offensive zone. Rantanen’s offensive abilities are obviously the standout in his game, but at his best, he can make an impact in all areas. The winger will have the opportunity to become arguably the most important player on one of the best teams in the NHL for the forseeable future with the Stars.

What We Know

• Prior to the trade, it was believed Rantanen would’ve taken less than Leon Draisaitl’s $14M cap hit to re-sign with Colorado, but wouldn’t have gone as low as Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6M cap hit, per Pierre LeBrun.
• Per Elliotte Friedman on HNIC Saturday Headlines, the Avalanche were willing to make Rantanen the highest paid winger in the league (above Artemi Panarin’s $11.64M cap hit). Per Friedman, the Avalanche may have been willing to pay $11.75M per year.
• The Hurricanes were believed to have offered Rantanen a $100+ million contract ($12.5M+ per year).

Comparables

Below, we examine how Rantanen’s deal compares to previous contracts for other top forwards. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Rantanen turning 29 years old in October, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age in the first year of their contract, with select centers included as well.

7/8 YEARS

A maximum-term contract was the only likely length for Rantanen’s deal. We have yet to see any trend of top players nearing 30 years old taking less than a maximum-term deal once they hit free agency, so the seven/eight-year term for Rantanen’s contract was always expected, with about 20 comps for seven/eight-year deals below.

There are obviously some outlier comps above, with the Jeff Skinner and Patrick Kane contracts projecting a cap hit of $16M or above for Rantanen on a cost-per-points basis.

But looking at the contracts that would’ve projected Rantanen’s deal to come in above a $13.5M cap hit, six of the seven were signed in 2019 or before. Meanwhile, 12 of the 14 contracts that would’ve projected a contract for Rantanen at a $12.75M cap hit or below were signed in 2021 or later, which points to the fact that Rantanen’s value likely shouldn’t have been on the upper end of these projections.

On the low end though, aside from Carter Verhaeghe, all other contracts would’ve projected Rantanen’s cap hit to be at least above a $10.25M cap hit. So we know fair value for Rantanen could be safely put somewhere between $10.25M on the very low end, and $12.75M on the high end.

Looking down the table, the majority of players signed with a lower production mid-point, with almost all below 85 points per 82. Three specific comps do stand out though: David Pastrnak, William Nylander, and Jonathan Huberdeau.

All three players had much higher production, with a production mid-point above 95 points. While those were all driven primarily by a very strong signing year, they arguably act as three of the most realistic comps on the table, being some of the more recent, high-profile contracts signed by wingers around the same age.

Between the three contracts, they would’ve projected Rantanen’s deal to be between $11.27M on the low end, up to $11.95M on the high end.

Just to measure Rantanen’s deal to some upper-echelon centers, his stats are compared below to Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl, who recently signed eight-year deals around the same age.

The cost-per-points equivalency from MacKinnon’s deal would’ve projected Rantanen’s contract around $13.5M, while Draisaitl’s deal would’ve projected Rantanen around $12.35M. Plus, a recent deal for a fellow Dallas Star in Roope Hintz (previous table) would’ve projected Rantanen’s deal to be $12.75M per year.

So though centers will typically be paid at a premium compared to wingers, the deals point to an argument that Rantanen’s fair value could’ve been above the $12M mark.

Final Analysis

While it looked like Rantanen could be in line for a pretty huge cap hit if he accepted Carolina’s offer, Rantanen ended up settling for fair value at a $12M cap hit in Dallas.

Of course, it’s helped by Dallas’ lack of state tax. The Avalanche or Hurricanes likely would’ve needed to offer Rantanen a cap hit that was quite a bit higher in order for his take-home pay to be equivalent to that of his $12M per year in Dallas (per Cardinal Point NHL Tax Calculator). But either Carolina or Colorado going significantly above $12M to $12.5M per year would’ve meant an overpayment against the cap.

It’s tough to define just how this deal looks, given how few wingers there are of Rantanen’s calibre who have signed eight-year deals recently. But with some recent comps in Nylander ($11.5M), Pastrnak ($11.25M) and Huberdeau ($10.5M) to compare Rantanen against, along with a rising cap, Rantanen’s $12M cap hit on an expected eight-year term is a fair deal for Dallas.