The Canucks committed to Lankinen on a long-term deal.
The Vancouver Canucks signed goaltender Kevin Lankinen to a five-year contract extension on Friday, which carries a $4.5 million cap hit. The deal kicks in for the 2025-26 season, and also comes only shortly after new acquisition Marcus Pettersson signed a six-year extension with the team.
Below, we take a look at how the deal looks for the Canucks, and whether they’re getting fair value.
Player Overview
It took a while for Kevin Lankinen – an undrafted goaltender from Finland – to get his break in the NHL. But after spending his entire career in his home country, the netminder signed a contract with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2018.
Coming to North America, Lankinen played the next two seasons with the AHL’s Rockford IceHogs. There, he put up strong results across 40 total games, earning him a shot in the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks for the 2021 shortened NHL season.
With the Blackhawks, Lankinen had a huge opportunity. The team had no clear starting goaltender following the departure of Corey Crawford, leaving the starting role up for grabs. Lankinen managed to take hold of the position, going on to play 37 of the team’s 56 games that season, and posting a respectable .909 save percentage on a poor team.
Despite Lankinen’s strong year though, the team added Marc-Andre Fleury ahead of the 2021-22 season. In that following year, not only was Lankinen’s role reduced due to the addition of Fleury, but his play also slipped to the point where he ended the year with just an .891 save percentage. He wasn’t re-signed by the Blackhawks from there, and ended up joining the Nashville Predators.
In his two years with the Predators though, Lankinen returned to form and put together very steady results.
Across 43 games with the team, he posted a .912 save percentage, before joining with the Vancouver Canucks on a one-year deal this past summer.
While Lankinen was only really brought in as a backup to Thatcher Demko, he found himself with another good opportunity in Vancouver following Demko’s injury trouble. Starting 33 of the team’s 57 games this season, Lankinen has been reliable in a turbulent season for the Canucks.
The extension does raise questions for Demko’s future in Vancouver, with the netminder set to become a free agent in 2026. The idea of Lankinen becoming a long-term starter is uncertain, but it’s more likely that he’s used as part of a tandem over the course of his cotntract. Lankinen has yet to post really eye-catching numbers throughout his NHL career, but only one of his five seasons can really be classified as a disappointment.
Comparables
With Lankinen turning 30 years old in April, below, we’ll take a look at other contracts signed by by goaltenders at a similar age, to get a sense of whether the deal carries fair value. The comparables featured will generally be between 28 and 32 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31), and comparables for other contract lengths will be listed as well.
7/8 YEARS
Looking at other possible lengths for Lankinen’s contract, a seven or eight-year deal was never likely to happen.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Started in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $95.5M cap |
| *Kevin Lankinen | 30 | 2025 | 905 34GP | 58% | 905 146GP | ||
| **Carey Price | 31 | 2018 | 923 62GP | 76% | 920 509GP | $10.50M 8 years | $12.61M 8 years |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 31 | 2019 | 913 62GP | 76% | 919 457GP | $10.00M 7 years | $11.72M 7 years |
| *Igor Shesterkin | 30 | 2025 | 908 19GP | – | 920 232GP | $11.50M 8 years | $11.50M 8 years |
| **Connor Hellebuyck | 31 | 2024 | 920 64GP | 78% | 916 445GP | $8.50M 7 years | $9.22M 7 years |
| **Ilya Sorokin | 29 | 2024 | 924 62GP | 73% | 924 136GP | $8.25M 8 years | $8.67M 8 years |
| **Cory Schneider | 29 | 2015 | 921 45GP | 52% | 925 143GP | $6.00M 7 years | $7.77M 7 years |
| **Juuse Saros | 30 | 2025 | 906 64GP | 78% | 917 350GP | $7.74M 8 years | $7.74M 8 years |
**Deal signed one year out – stats from season played before signing used for signing year stats
Looking at the comps, every goalie listed had much better numbers than Lankinen. While Igor Shesterkin and Juuse Saros did have more comparable signing year stats, they also had significantly better career numbers, and more NHL experience.
6 YEARS
Even a six-year deal was always unlikely as well, for the same reasons.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV% in Signing Year | % of Games Started in Signing Year | SV% over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $95.5M cap |
| *Kevin Lankinen | 30 | 2025 | 905 34GP | 58% | 905 146GP | ||
| **Corey Crawford | 30 | 2014 | 926 30GP | 58% | 913 152GP | $6.00M 6 years | $8.30M 6 years |
| *Jordan Binnington | 28 | 2021 | 908 19GP | – | 915 102GP | $6.00M 6 years | $7.03M 6 years |
| Jacob Markstrom | 30 | 2020 | 918 43GP | 61% | 911 272GP | $6.00M 6 years | $7.03M 6 years |
| Philipp Grubauer | 30 | 2021 | 922 40GP | 70% | 920 214GP | $5.90M 6 years | $6.91M 6 years |
| **Martin Jones | 28 | 2018 | 912 65GP | 79% | 916 164GP | $5.75M 6 years | $6.91M 6 years |
| *Logan Thompson | 28 | 2025 | 925 27GP | 53% | 915 130GP | $5.85M 6 years | $5.85M 6 years |
| Devan Dubnyk | 29 | 2015 | 929 58GP | 67% | 914 231GP | $4.33M 6 years | $5.79M 6 years |
**Deal signed one year out – stats from season played before signing used for signing year stats
While some of the comps had similarly limited NHL experience, all had much better numbers than Lankinen, with many starting a higher percentage of their teams games in their signing year as well.
So any term at six years or more would’ve been unwarranted for Lankinen, unless it were to come with a very reduced cap hit.
5 YEARS
Even with comparables for five-year deals – the term at which the goaltender signed at – most other goalies had better numbers than Lankinen, and every single comp had a higher signing year save percentage.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Started in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $95.5M cap |
| *Kevin Lankinen | 30 | 2025 | 905 34GP | 58% | 905 146GP | ||
| **Elvis Merzlikins | 28 | 2022 | 916 28GP | 41% | 920 61GP | $5.40M 5 years | $6.25M 5 years |
| Darcy Kuemper | 32 | 2022 | 921 57GP | 70% | 918 299GP | $5.25M 5 years | $6.08M 5 years |
| Tristan Jarry | 28 | 2023 | 909 47GP | 57% | 914 206GP | $5.38M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years |
| Robin Lehner | 29 | 2020 | 920 36GP | 49% | 918 301GP | $5.00M 5 years | $5.86M 5 years |
| Jack Campbell | 30 | 2022 | 914 49GP | 57% | 916 135GP | $5.00M 5 years | $5.79M 5 years |
| *Mackenzie Blackwood | 29 | 2025 | 916 24GP | – | 905 220GP | $5.25M 5 years | $5.25M 5 years |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 26 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | $4.75M 5 years | $5.15M 5 years |
| **Joey Daccord | 29 | 2025 | 916 50GP | 56% | 907 69GP | $5.00M 5 years | $5.00M 5 years |
| Joonas Korpisalo | 29 | 2023 | 914 39GP | 45% | 904 221GP | $4.00M 5 years | $4.57M 5 years |
| James Reimer | 28 | 2016 | 922 40GP | 49% | 914 215GP | $3.40M 5 years | $4.45M 5 years |
**Deal signed one year out – stats from season played before signing used for signing year stats
At the same time, there are some signs as to why five years could have possibly been warranted. With five-year deals, we see goalies who started a lower percentage of their team’s games in their signing year, as compared to goalies who signed longer-term contracts. Lankinen also actually started a higher percentage of his team’s games before signing this year, compared to almost all comps listed.
Plus, four of the five goaltenders who signed at $5.25M per year or less also had a career save percentage that was much closer to Lankinen’s .905 career save percentage.
It’s also important to factor in how league average save percentage has changed over the course of the last decade. Once at .915 just 10 years ago, it’s been at a steady decline ever since, currently sitting at just a .901 this season. As a result, Lankinen’s .905 save percentage was more valuable than it would’ve been in the past. The counter to that though is most goalies listed above also signed within the last few years, while the league average save percentage was already quite a bit lower.
Looking at Joonas Korpisalo in particular though, it would be tough to argue that Korpisalo was clearly more deserving of a five-year deal than Lankinen, at the time of signing. While Korpisalo did a have a couple additional years of NHL experience and a higher signing year save percentage, he also started a lower percentage of his team’s games in his signing year, and his career save percentage was almost right in line with Lankinen. Korpisalo’s $4M cap hit adjusted to a $95.5M salary cap is also very similar to the $4.5M that Lankinen signed for.
Perhaps most importantly though, there’s also the fact that there’s seemingly been a trend towards five-year deals for goalies who are more comparable to Lankinen. There are still significantly more recent comps for five-year deals than any other length, and five years has seemingly been the going rate for a 1A goaltender around Lankinen’s age over the past few years.
4 YEARS
While Lankinen’s contract may look a bit long, again, there’s also a real lack of comparables for a four-year deal.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Started in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $95.5M cap |
| *Kevin Lankinen | 30 | 2025 | 905 34GP | 58% | 905 146GP | ||
| **Linus Ullmark | 32 | 2025 | 915 40GP | 48% | 918 247GP | $8.25M 4 years | $8.25M 4 years |
| *Marc-Andre Fleury | 31 | 2015 | 917 75GP | – | 911 540GP | $5.75M 4 years | $7.69M 4 years |
| Semyon Varlamov | 31 | 2019 | 909 49GP | 60% | 916 448GP | $5.00M 4 years | $5.86M 4 years |
| Linus Ullmark | 28 | 2021 | 917 20GP | 36% | 912 117GP | $5.00M 4 years | $5.86M 4 years |
| Scott Darling | 29 | 2017 | 924 32GP | 39% | 923 75GP | $4.15M 4 years | $5.28M 4 years |
**Deal signed one year out – stats from season played before signing used for signing year stats
Once again, Lankinen started a higher percentage of games in his signing year, as compared to most of the comps listed. At the same time, Lankinen also had much lower stats.
Scanning the four-year comps though, Linus Ullmark’s two contracts look to be the only four-year deals signed since 2020 by a goaltender who was close to Lankinen’s age. Contrast that to the five-year deals, where there were nearly double-digit comps to list, and it’s clear why Lankinen had an argument towards a five-year contract.
3 YEARS
There was also the potential we could’ve seen a shorter-term deal, with comps for a three-year contract below.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Started in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $95.5M cap |
| *Kevin Lankinen | 30 | 2025 | 905 34GP | 58% | 905 146GP | ||
| ***Cal Petersen | 28 | 2022 | 911 35GP | 57% | 916 54GP | $5.00M 3 years | $5.79M 3 years |
| **Mikko Koskinen | 31 | 2019 | 911 27GP | – | 905 31GP | $4.50M 3 years | $5.27M 3 years |
| Antti Raanta | 29 | 2018 | 930 47GP | 56% | 922 141GP | $4.25M 3 years | $5.11M 3 years |
| Petr Mrazek | 29 | 2021 | 923 12GP | 21% | 911 275GP | $3.80M 3 years | $4.45M 3 years |
| **Thomas Greiss | 31 | 2017 | 928 25GP | 53% | 919 155GP | $3.33M 3 years | $4.24M 3 years |
| Jonathan Bernier | 30 | 2018 | 913 34GP | 41% | 914 289GP | $3.00M 3 years | $3.60M 3 years |
| *Samuel Montembeault | 28 | 2024 | 903 50GP | – | 897 113GP | $3.15M 3 years | $3.42M 3 years |
| **Anton Forsberg | 30 | 2022 | 918 31GP | 50% | 908 87GP | $2.75M 3 years | $3.18M 3 years |
**Deal signed mid-season – stats from season before the point of signing are used.
***Deal signed one year out – stats from season played before signing used for signing year stats
Still though, we see few recent three-year deals signed by goaltenders around the same age. Then with a lot of the more recent examples, the likes of Cal Petersen, Mikko Koskinen, Samuel Montembeault and Anton Forsberg each had less NHL experience at the time of signing. So there’s likely a clear reason as to why these comps likely couldn’t get more term on their respective contracts.
You could argue the lower stats for Lankinen offset the more experience and more games played in his signing year, but again, there’s a clear trend towards five-year deals recently, as measured against comparable goalies signing at other terms.
Final Analysis
In terms of the length, five years for Lankinen’s contract may look a little long. Typically, a .905 save percentage in a signing year, coupled with a .905 career save percentage isn’t enough to get the kind of contract that Lankinen did.
At the same time, there are some clear reasons as to why this was the result. Recently, there’s been a clear trend towards 1A/1B goaltenders getting five-year contracts, with a much larger sample size at that term length, as compared to any other. With Joonas Korpisalo in particular, there’s a pretty clear comp for not only a five-year term, but also a cap hit around $4.5 million (factoring in the higher salary cap for 2025-26).
Plus, a lower league average save percentage in recent years means Lankinen’s numbers bring more value this year than compared to several years ago. Then with limited goaltenders available in free agency this year as well, Lankinen would’ve been one of the better options available, likely driving up the asking price.
Ultimately, this was the goaltender’s best chance to capitalize on a big-money deal. The comps were there for a five-year term, and if Vancouver wasn’t going to offer that length of contract, someone else likely would have.
I think this is a scenario where the deal is probably a little bit long, and perhaps a bit too expensive, but it’s a contract dictated by the going rate for a goaltender. It has the potential to carry huge upside if Lankinen emerges as a true starter, but could also look rough very quickly if Lankinen’s play in Vancouver hits a decline. Based on the overall consistency of his career numbers though, neither scenario is wildly likely, and we’re probably likely to see Lankinen share the net in Vancouver (with Demko, or eventually someone else) in the coming years.
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