The Vancouver Canucks signed their recent acquisition to a huge extension.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Vancouver Canucks signed defenseman Marcus Pettersson to a six-year contract on Wednesday, carrying a $5.5 million cap hit. The new deal will kick in for the 2025-26 NHL season.

Below, we examine how the deal looks for the Canucks and whether they’re getting fair value.

Player Overview

Drafted 38th overall in 2014, Marcus Pettersson began his NHL career with the Anaheim Ducks.

The defender got into his first NHL action during the 2017-18 season, before becoming an NHL regular in 2018-19. But after just 49 games with the Ducks across parts of two seasons and with Anaheim having a fairly deep blue line at the time, Pettersson was dealt to the Pittsburgh Penguins in December 2018.

Pettersson remained with Pittsburgh for the next six years, gradually growing his responsibilities.

After playing in a smaller role over much of his time with the Penguins, the defenseman took on a top-four role in the 2022-23 season, seeing an increase of five minutes per game compared to 2021-22. Over the two seasons since, Pettersson became one of the the team’s most relied upon defenders, playing between 22-23 minutes per game and consistently facing tough matchups.

But with the Penguins falling out of the playoff race and in need of a roster turnover, Pettersson was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks a week ago, for a package which included a first-round pick. With the Canucks quickly extending Pettersson on a six-year contract, the team will have someone to play behind Quinn Hughes long-term on the left side.

Comparables

Below we take a look at comparables for Pettersson’s six-year deal (and other possible lengths for an extension), to get a sense of whether it was an overpayment, an underpayment, or a fair deal. Comparables will generally include defensemen who were between 27 and 31 years old in the first year of their contract, with Pettersson set to begin his extension at 29 years old.

Each table will include the comparable defenders’ production and ice time in their signing year, and over their career. It’ll also include their cap hit in the first year of their contract, and their adjusted cap hit on an $95.5M salary cap, as currently projected for the 2025-26 season, when Pettersson’s deal will begin.

7 YEARS

Pettersson’s new deal carries a lot of term, but anything over six years for his contract was always unrealistic. Looking at how his numbers compare to other defenders around a similar age who’ve signed seven-year contracts recently, Pettersson’s stats weren’t overly comparable.

Looking at the majority of comps listed for seven-year contracts, almost all had a combination of higher production, and/or higher ice time.

Pettersson’s stats are really only more comparable to Jonas Brodin and Scott Mayfield, but even with Brodin’s deal, Pettersson had less experience playing in a larger role, with much lower average career year ice time. Pettersson had only been used in a larger role for about two and a half years before signing, averaging less than 17 minutes per game over his first five seasons in the NHL.

As a result, any deal at seven or eight years was unlikely, and if we did see a deal at this range, it could’ve resulted in a reduced cap hit, lower than Pettersson’s $5.5M per year.

6 YEARS

Six years was the most likely term we could’ve anticipated for Pettersson to sign for. Looking at the comps listed, both their production and usage were much more comparable to Pettersson.

Many of the other defenders who’ve signed six-year deals at around the same age had career ice time of 18-19 minutes, rather than 21-22+ minutes for a lot of the seven-year comps, who had a longer track record of playing in a big role.

Compared to both Graves ($5.15M adjusted cap hit) and Zadorov ($5.43M adjusted cap hit) at the bottom of the table, Pettersson had slightly better signing year production and much higher signing year ice time. So at least on the surface, there’s a clear indication as to why Pettersson’s cap hit came in above those factoring in the rising cap, at $5.5M.

There’s even an argument that Pettersson could’ve ended up getting a bit more money on his deal. His numbers were very comparable to Nate Schmidt, who had a $7M adjusted cap hit on a $95.5M cap. While Schmidt’s contract was a bit of an outlier compared to the others in terms of adjusted cap hit, Pettersson’s numbers also compared quite well to both Matt Roy and Brett Pesce, who were around a $6M adjusted cap hit. Pettersson had very similar career production, and while his career ice time was lower, he also had better signing year production and higher signing year ice time.

Roy and Pesce signed at cap hits of $5.75M and $5.5M respectively, which is right in line with Pettersson’s deal. But factoring in the cap increase (and the adjusted cap hits of Roy and Pesce), there’s an argument that Pettersson’s value could’ve been closer to the $6M mark.

5 YEARS

A five-year deal was a possibility for Pettersson instead, but we’ve seen a bit of a shift away from defenders around Pettersson’s age, production and usage getting five-year deals recently, with the comps who signed the more expensive deals below beginning their respective contract in 2022 or earlier.

Pettersson’s numbers weren’t overly comparable to either of Alex Goligoski or Tylers Myers over his career, putting him well below the $7M adjusted value of their respective contracts on any five-year contract.

On the other hand, Pettersson’s numbers were significantly higher than Will Borgen in every category, pointing to his value being well above the $4.1M cap hit on Borgen’s extension, and Petterson had much higher usage than Sean Walker as well. His numbers were also higher than those of Jamie Oleksiak in every category, putting him above Oleksiak’s $5.39M adjusted cap hit.

An interesting comp is Esa Lindell, who signed a five-year extension in September, at a $5.25M cap hit with more similar numbers. At the same time, it’s important to note that Lindell will begin his contract two years older than Pettersson at 31 years old and will only expire when he’s 36 years old. As a result, there’s a bit more reason for risk of a decline in Lindell’s case, which points to why Pettersson could’ve been more in line to get the extra year on his deal.

Again, with the shift to comparable defensemen getting six-year contracts, it wasn’t overly realistic to see Pettersson take a deal at five years or less. At times, we’ve seen defenders in their mid-20s opt for shorter deals around four years, with the hope to sign a second big contract later. But given Pettersson’s age, this is likely his best chance to him to cash in on a long deal and seek the most term possible.

Final Analysis

A six-year contract makes sense for Pettersson, given we’ve seen a wave of UFA defenders around the same age sign six-year contracts over the last two years. Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Nikita Zadorov and Ryan Graves all signed a deal at the same term recently while at a similar age, so there’s precedent for that kind of term.

In terms of a cap hit, Pettersson’s $5.5M per year is fair, and even potentially a little lower than it could’ve been, with an argument that he could’ve gotten closer to $6M per year based on the rising salary cap.

Overall, it’s a fair deal for the Canucks and with Pettersson only turning 29 years old later this year, the hope is that he’s still a ways away from any decline.