The Capitals locked up Thompson long-term, just a half-season after acquiring him.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Washington Capitals signed goaltender Logan Thompson to a six-year contract extension on Monday, carrying a $5.85 million cap hit. The deal is set to kick in for the 2025-26 season.

Below, we take a look at how the deal looks for the Capitals, and whether they’re getting fair value.

Player Overview

Logan Thompson took somewhat of an unorthodox route to get to the NHL. Just six years ago, Thompson was undrafted and playing Canadian university hockey, which isn’t typically a path that leads to an eventual NHL career.

However, Thompson managed to work his way up the ranks of professional hockey in the following years, and after a couple very strong seasons in the AHL, the netminder made the jump to the NHL with the Vegas Golden Knights.

After a strong showing in his first half-season in Vegas during the 2021-22 season, Thompson got off to a hot start in 2022-23, earning him a spot at the NHL All-Star Game. However, injury trouble proved to be an issue from there, keeping him out of action for most of the back half of the season. The Golden Knights went on to capture their first Stanley Cup, but were primarily backstopped by Adin Hill in the process, as Thompson missed the playoff run.

Thompson’s numbers slipped a bit when he returned to action for the 2023-24 season, but the netminder ended up taking on the largest workload of his career, playing in 46 games. But following the season, the Golden Knights opted to trade Thompson to the Washington Capitals, in exchange for a pair of third-round picks.

Skip forward about seven months, and the deal looks like an absolute steal for the Capitals.

While Thompson has still split a lot of the team’s games with tandem partner Charlie Lindgren, he’s been excellent across 27 games in Washington. Registering a .925 save percentage so far this season, he was poised to become the top UFA goalie on the market, had he not re-signed in Washington.

While Thompson was snubbed from a spot on Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster, it still seems like he could emerge as a candidate for the Olympic roster in 2026.

Comparables

Below we take a look at comparables for Thompson’s deal, to get a sense of whether it was an overpayment, an underpayment, or a fair deal. Comparables will generally include goalies who were between 26 and 30 years old in the first year of their contract.

Each table will include the comparable goaltenders’ save percentage in their signing year, and over their career. It’ll also include their cap hit in the first year of their contract, and their adjusted cap hit on an $92.5M salary cap, as currently projected for the 2025-26 season when Thompson’s deal will begin (though the cap may end up above that mark by the time it’s finalized).

7/8 YEARS

Looking at different possible terms for Thompson, a seven or eight-year contract wasn’t overly likely. Based on comparables, while Thompson’s signing year stats certainly held up, his save career save percentage was lower than almost any other comparable listed below.

Perhaps the biggest factor that keeps Thompson out of the range of a maximum-term extension though was the lack of sample size as an undisputed No. 1 goalie. While Thompson’s numbers over his career have been quite strong, he’s still only started just over 50 percent of his team’s games this year. Looking at the rest of the comparables listed, the majority of the them were starting upwards of 65 percent of their team’s games, with many above the 70 percent mark.

This has been the case through Thompson’s NHL career as well. He still has yet to start more than 42 games in a given year. Whether it was in Vegas, or now in Washington, he’s generally been used as part of a tandem. So realistically, a term falling below seven or eight years was expected.

6 YEARS

The six-year deal that Thompson signed at was on the upper-end of an expected length for his contract, based on comparables below.

Many of the comparables had started a higher percentage of their team’s games in their signing year, but some didn’t have a huge sample size of playing a high number of games per season on a consistent basis prior to that (Binnington, Grubauer, and Dubnyk). So term-wise, Thompson is more closely aligned to the netminders who signed a six-year deal.

Additionally, all of the comps for six-year deals began their respective contracts at 28 years old or later, like Thompson. This differs from a lot of the eight-year comps, such as Vasilevskiy, Rask, Swayman, and Gibson, who played the first year of their contract at 26 years old. As a result, there was a little bit less risk involved in a maximum-term deal for those goalies than there would have been for Thompson.

In terms of a cap hit, we do see the majority of six-year comps with an adjusted cap hit around $6.7M or more. However, if you look towards the actual cap hit the comps signed at, regardless of the salary cap in the year in which they signed, there’s a very defined range. Five of the six comps listed signed for between $5.75M and $6M, with Thompson’s $5.85M cap hit falling directly in that range.

So while Igor Shesterkin’s $11.5M cap hit could mark a shift towards more expensive contracts for elite-level goalies on eight-year deals, there doesn’t seem to be the same level of inflation with cap hits for goalies at shorter terms.

As a result, a $5.85M million cap hit for Thompson closely aligns to other goalies who signed for six years.

5 YEARS

There’s probably an argument to be made that Thompson’s stats could have set him up for a five-year deal, rather than a six-year deal.

Looking towards the comps listed, many had started a lower percentage of their team’s games in their signing year, compared to goalies who signed for six years or more. At the same time though, Thompson’s signing year save percentage is higher than any comp listed for a five-year deal.

If he was to have signed for five years, there’s an argument that based on the adjusted cap hits of the comps listed, Thompson’s deal could’ve surpassed $6M per year. But similar to the case with six-year deals, the majority of the five-year comps also signed for a cap hit at a similar range, regardless of the salary cap in the year they signed: eight of the 10 comps listed all signed with a cap hit between $5M and $5.5M.

4 YEARS

Four years is likely the lowest term we could’ve seen for Thompson’s contract, with limited comparables below.

At the same time, Thompson’s numbers were stronger than the comps listed. Jake Allen is the one goalie who did have somewhat similar numbers to Thompson, but Thompson also had a bit more career experience, and a higher signing year save percentage.

With Thompson turning 28 years old next month, going after a deal with more term made sense. A four-year contract would’ve set him up to only re-enter the market at 32 years old, which was unlikely to warrant another big payday. With Thompson in the midst of the best season of his career, and at a more desirable signing age now, a five or six-year deal was always more likely for Thompson, rather than a deal at four years or less.

Final Analysis

Both the term and cap hit make sense for Thompson’s deal. A five or six-year contract was the range that comparables would have projected for the netminder’s contract, and with the majority of comps for a six-year deal signing their respective contracts between $5.75M and $6M per year, Thompson’s $5.85M cap hit falls right within that range.

It’s a fair deal for the Capitals, who have the opportunity to get really good value from the contract if Thompson can continue sustain this level of play, and emerge as a long-term starter who can play a higher number of games per year.