Luukkonen put together a strong year in Buffalo, playing in 54 games.
Player Overview
Selected by the Buffalo Sabres in the second round of the 2017 NHL Draft, it took Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen a little while to make his way to the NHL. The netminder spent stints in the OHL, ECHL, and back in Finland, all before even becoming an AHL regular.
Then across the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, despite playing primarily in the AHL, Luukkonen got his first taste of NHL action, playing 13 combined games with the Sabres between the two years.
In the 2022-23 season, Luukkonen earned a more regular NHL role for the first time, playing 33 games with Buffalo, where he posted an .892 save percentage. But it was this year where Luukkonen really broke out, taking over as the team’s starting goalie, and managing a .910 save percentage across 54 games.
The big question for Luukkonen will be whether he can repeat his success. Over the three seasons prior to the 2023-24 year, Luukkonen posted an .897 save percentage across 46 NHL games, and also an .897 save percentage across 58 AHL games. So the sample size of strong play is relatively minimal.
Plus, Luukkonen’s position as the team’s starter arguably isn’t solidified long-term. With Devon Levi still on the rise, Luukkonen needs another big year to cement himself as a go-to option for the team in the coming years.
What We Know
- Luukkonen filed for salary arbitration earlier this month.
- The netminder is reportedly open to extended long-term in Buffalo.
Comparables
With Luukkonen now 25 years old, we’ll take a look at goalies who were between 23 and 27 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31) and posted similar numbers before signing, to get a sense of what Luukkonen’s deal could look like.
5-8 YEARS
Luukkonen getting any deal at five years or more would be very unlikely, with comparables below.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| *Andrei Vasilevskiy | 26 | 2020 | 925 53GP | 65% | 919 208GP | $9.50M 8 years | $10.26M 8 years |
| *John Gibson | 26 | 2019 | 926 60GP | 73% | 923 178GP | $6.40M 8 years | $6.91M 8 years |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 25 | 2018 | 924 67GP | 82% | 917 149GP | $6.17M 6 years | $6.83M 6 years |
| Braden Holtby | 26 | 2015 | 923 73GP | 89% | 921 178GP | $6.10M 5 years | $7.52M 5 years |
| Frederik Andersen | 26 | 2016 | 919 43GP | 52% | 918 125GP | $5.00M 5 years | $6.03M 5 years |
| **Thatcher Demko | 26 | 2021 | 917 25GP | – | 911 62GP | $5.00M 5 years | $5.40M 5 years |
**Midseason signing – stats from games played in season before signing used for signing year stats
Comparing his stats against those of goalies who have signed for five years or more around the same age, the numbers are drastically different. Both in terms of signing year save percentage, and career save percentage, Luukkonen’s numbers are considerably lower, and it’s unlikely the Sabres would be willing to go that long on a deal.
The only contract that could really point towards Luukkonen getting five years would be Joonas Korpisalo’s five-year deal from last year. While Korpisalo was quite a bit older than Luukkonen, the stats between the goalies do compare quite well.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| Joonas Korpisalo | 29 | 2023 | 914 39GP | 48% | 904 221GP | $4.00M 5 years | $4.22M 5 years |
So in the unlikely scenario Luukkonen did get a five-year deal, the most likely outcome would be for it to come in near Joonas Korpisalo’s $4.22M adjusted cap hit.
4 YEARS
Even at four years, there aren’t a ton of comparables that would point towards Luukkonen’s numbers warranting that long of a deal.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| *Sergei Bobrovsky | 27 | 2015 | 914 29GP | – | 918 208GP | $7.43M 4 years | $9.16M 4 years |
| Matt Murray | 26 | 2020 | 899 38GP | 54% | 914 199GP | $6.25M 4 years | $6.75M 4 years |
| Igor Shesterkin | 26 | 2021 | 932 35GP | 63% | 921 47GP | $5.67M 4 years | $6.12M 4 years |
| Juuse Saros | 26 | 2021 | 927 36GP | 64% | 920 155GP | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years |
| Jake Allen | 27 | 2017 | 920 47GP | 57% | 915 99GP | $4.35M 4 years | $5.10M 4 years |
The only goalie from the comps above who had lower numbers than Luukkonen was Matt Murray, in his signing year. At the same time though, Murray had a much larger sample size of career success at that point, and was coming off two recent Stanley Cup wins.
What Luukkonen does have going for him is that his percentage of signing year games is more comparable to a lot of the four-year comps than comps for a lower term. If he did end up taking a four-year deal, we can expect it would be well below the $5M mark, and likely similar to the $4.25M cap hit projected for a five-year deal.
Still though, with Devon Levi yet to become an NHL regular, the Sabres may not want to commit long-term to Luukkonen, without knowing Levi’s ceiling. So while four years may be a little less far-fetched, it’s still a less likely outcome.
3 YEARS
At three years, we get to what could be more a more realistic length for Luukkonen’s deal, with comparables below.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| Ilya Sorokin | 26 | 2021 | 918 22GP | 39% | 918 22GP | $4.00M 3 years | $4.32M 3 years |
| Jacob Markstrom | 27 | 2017 | 915 33GP | 40% | 904 83GP | $3.67M 3 years | $4.31M 3 years |
| Carter Hart | 23 | 2021 | 877 27GP | 48% | 905 101GP | $3.67M 3 years | $4.30M 3 years |
| Jake Oettinger | 24 | 2022 | 914 48GP | 59% | 913 77GP | $4.00M 3 years | $4.27M 3 years |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 23 | 2017 | 910 24GP | 29% | 913 40GP | $3.50M 3 years | $4.11M 3 years |
| Filip Gustavsson | 25 | 2023 | 931 39GP | 48% | 920 66GP | $3.75M 3 years | $3.95M 3 years |
| Tristan Jarry | 25 | 2020 | 921 33GP | 47% | 914 62GP | $3.50M 3 years | $3.78M 3 years |
| Chris Driedger | 27 | 2021 | 927 23GP | 41% | 929 38GP | $3.50M 3 years | $3.78M 3 years |
| Philipp Grubauer | 27 | 2018 | 923 35GP | 43% | 923 101GP | $3.33M 3 years | $3.69M 3 years |
| Alexander Georgiev | 26 | 2022 | 898 33GP | 40% | 908 129GP | $3.40M 3 years | $3.63M 3 years |
| Vitek Vanecek | 26 | 2022 | 908 42GP | 51% | 908 79GP | $3.40M 3 years | $3.63M 3 years |
Even with the three-year comps, Luukkonen’s numbers don’t compare all that well. The only comps which could point towards Luukkonen getting above $4M on a three-year deal would be Carter Hart or Jacob Markstrom, but those look to be outliers compared to the rest of the group.
However, he also started a higher percentage of games in his signing year than all the comps listed, and at the bottom of the table, we do see two more applicable comps, in Alexander Georgiev and Vitek Vanecek. Both goalies had similar career experience to Luukkonen, and while each of them had the better career save percentage, Luukkonen had both a better signing year save percentage, and higher number of games played in his signing year.
It marks a fairly clear range for what Luukkonen could make on a three-year deal, and while he may not reach the $4M mark, he could get quite close.
2 YEARS
Two years would be another reasonable option for Luukkonen’s contract, but it would walk him to unrestricted free agency in 2026.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| Adin Hill | 27 | 2023 | 915 27GP | 33% | 910 101GP | $4.90M 2 years | $5.16M 2 years |
| Jontathan Bernier | 27 | 2015 | 912 58GP | 71% | 916 175GP | $4.13M 2 years | $5.09M 2 years |
| Petr Mrazek | 24 | 2016 | 921 54GP | 66% | 920 94GP | $4.00M 2 years | $4.82M 2 years |
| Jordan Binnington | 26 | 2019 | 927 32GP | 39% | 926 33GP | $4.40M 2 years | $4.75M 2 years |
| Elvis Merzlikins | 26 | 2020 | 923 33GP | 47% | 923 33GP | $4.00M 2 years | $4.32M 2 years |
| Petr Mrazek | 27 | 2019 | 914 40GP | 49% | 911 223GP | $3.13M 2 years | $3.38M 2 years |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 25 | 2021 | 932 23GP | 41% | 928 25GP | $3.00M 2 years | $3.24M 2 years |
| Joonas Korpisalo | 26 | 2020 | 911 37GP | 53% | 908 127GP | $2.80M 2 years | $3.02M 2 years |
| Kaapo Kahkonen | 26 | 2022 | 912 36GP | 44% | 908 65GP | $2.75M 2 years | $2.93M 2 years |
| Jake Allen | 25 | 2015 | 913 37GP | 45% | 911 52GP | $2.35M 2 years | $2.90M 2 years |
| Alexandar Georgiev | 24 | 2020 | 910 34GP | 49% | 913 77GP | $2.43M 2 years | $2.62M 2 years |
Luukkonen’s numbers aren’t overly comparable to many of the higher-priced comps, but do look much more comparable to the netminders near the bottom of the table. His signing year stats were very similar to those of Alexander Georgiev, Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen, and while each goalie had better career numbers, Luukkonen had a much higher percentage of games played in his signing year, and more career experience.
Meanwhile, the 2020 Korpisalo contract is another great look at a possible deal for Luukkonen. The netminder posted an almost identical signing year save percentage, with a marginally higher career save percentage. Korpisalo had a little more experience, but Luukkonen had the higher percentage of signing year games.
With those four comparables in mind, Luukkonen would likely be in line for a deal worth around $3M per year on a two-year contract.
1 YEAR
There’s also a chance Luukkonen could opt for a one-year deal, to build his value and look to cash in with a bigger contract next summer. Especially considering Luukkonen filed for arbitration, even if the two sides don’t get to the hearing, there’ a decent chance they could settle on a one-year pact.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $88M cap |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | 2024 | 910 54GP | 66% | 904 100GP | ||
| Robin Lehner | 26 | 2017 | 920 59GP | 72% | 918 166GP | $4.00M 1 year | $4.69M 1 year |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 42GP | 51% | 908 131GP | $3.55M 1 year | $3.74M 1 year |
| Jeremy Swayman | 25 | 2023 | 920 37GP | 45% | 920 88GP | $3.48M 1 year | $3.67M 1 year |
| Linus Ullmark | 27 | 2020 | 915 34GP | 49% | 911 97GP | $2.60M 1 year | $2.81M 1 year |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 24 | 2017 | 907 56GP | 68% | 910 82GP | $2.25M 1 year | $2.64M 1 year |
The recent one-year deals for Ilya Samsonov and Jeremy Swayman could be used to argue Luukkonen should be up around the $3.5M mark on a one-year deal, but the numbers that the goaltenders posted just aren’t really overly comparable.
However, the one netminder that stands out as a decent comparable is Connor Hellebuyck.
Luukkonen and Hellebuyck posted very similar numbers in their signing year, while playing a very similar number of games as well, and also having similar career experience. Hellebuyck did have the higher career save percentage, but it’s by far the best look we have at what could be expected for the goalie on a one-year deal.
Linus Ullmark’s deal is also a decent comp. Ullmark had slightly better signing year stats and better career numbers, but Luukkonen had more games played in his signing year. The two netminders also had very similar career experience, and like Luukkonen, Ullmark’s numbers were better in his signing year than over his career.
As a result, we could see Luukkonen’s value being somewhere around the adjusted cap hits from the two deals, near $2.75M on a one-year deal.
Projection
A deal between one and three years is most likely for Luukkonen, with a higher cap hit tied to a longer term.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 Years | $3.67M | $4.00M | $3.00M |
| 2 Years | $3.00M | $3.50M | $2.75M |
| 1 Year | $2.75M | $3.25M | $2.25M |
If Luukkonen did get a four or five-year contract, it would likely come in a little above the $4M mark.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 4/5 Years | $4.25M | $4.50M | $4.00M |
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