Henrique chose to remain with the Oilers, following the team’s run to the Stanley Cup Final.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Edmonton Oilers signed Adam Henrique to a two-year contract as free agency opened on July 1, carrying a $3M cap hit.

Below is a look at the contract, and what kind of value the Oilers got with the deal.

Player Overview

Adam Henrique found success before even reaching the NHL, as part of the Windsor Spitfires team that won back-to-back Memorial Cups in 2009 and 2010.

Then after spending a single year with the AHL’s Albany Devils in 2010-11, Henrique made the jump to the NHL the following season, to begin his tenure in New Jersey. Over parts of the next seven seasons, Henrique became a contributing member of the top-nine, and scored at a pace of 22 goals and 46 points per 82 over his time with the Devils. His most memorable moment in New Jersey came when he scored the overtime winning goal in the 2012 Eastern Conference Final, sending the Devils to the Stanley Cup Final.

Henrique was dealt to the Anaheim Ducks in 2017, with defenseman Sami Vatanen going back the other way. While Henrique arrived in Anaheim just as the team was starting to decline, he still sustained very similar production over his tenure with the Ducks, compared to his time in New Jersey.

However, with the Ducks firmly out of the playoff race this season, Henrique was shipped to the Oilers at the trade deadline for a package including a first-round pick. While Henrique took on a smaller role in Edmonton than he had in Anaheim, he provided a versatile option within the forward. With the forward able to play either down the middle or on the wing, in addition to up or down the lineup, Henrique was a good fit in Edmonton.

Now extended for two years, Henrique will have a great opportunity to chase the first Stanley Cup of his career in Edmonton.

Comparables

Below we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Oilers, and whether it carries fair value. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Henrique now 34 years old, comparables were generally kept to forwards who were between 32 and 37 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract. With Henrique able to play either at center or on the wing, both centers and wingers were used in comparables.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for the table below.

2 YEARS

A two-year deal was the expected term for Henrique’s contract, based on his age and production. While a one-year deal was a possible alternative (and may have warranted a higher cap hit), anything over two years was pretty unlikely.

Below, we take a look at contracts from players who signed at a comparable age and with similar production, and how they would’ve projected Henrique’s value on a two-year deal.

All 12 of the comparables above would’ve projected Henrique to be not only above his $3M cap hit, but even above the $3.5M mark. It points to what we all already knew: Henrique took a pay-cut to remain in Edmonton, compared to what he likely could’ve made on the open market.

The comps would’ve projected a two-year deal for Henrique to be anywhere between $3.6M on the low end, and $6.3M on the high end.

That said, there’s a clear discrepancy between the older contracts on the table, and the more recent ones. The six contracts signed before 2019 made up the six highest payment rates of any contract on the table, while the six contracts from 2022 onwards represented the six lowest payment rates. It points to a shift where teams aren’t willing to pay forwards at Henrique’s age at the same rate they were previously willing to.

As a result, the more realistic range for Henrique’s value would have been between the $3.6M projection from the Gustav Nyquist contract, and the $4.8M projection from the Anze Kopitar contract.

The two highest payment rates within this range went to Kopitar and Mikael Backlund, who were centers that had been with their team for their entire career, and both centers also extended one year out. On the other hand, Nyquist, and Vladimir Tarasenko were exclusively wingers who had bounced around a little bit in previous years before signing. Henrique doesn’t really fall into either category, and it paints the picture that his value was probably at least $4M per year, but below $4.5M per year.

Final Analysis

While the two-year term was expected, Henrique took a sizeable pay cut to remain in Edmonton, at just $3M per year.

Comparables would’ve projected Henrique to be up around a $4M cap hit on a two-year contract, or possibly even a little higher. In staying with the Oilers though, Henrique has the best shot of his career at capturing his first Stanley Cup.