Mantha has an opportunity to build his value during a short-term stay in Calgary.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Calgary Flames signed forward Anthony Mantha to a one-year, $3.5 million contract as free agency opened on July 1.

Below, we take a look at what kind of value the Flames are getting with the contract, and whether it’s a good fit.

Player Overview

A 20th overall pick by the Detroit Red Wings in 2013, Mantha made the jump to the NHL in the 2016-17 season. Becoming a key member of the team’s forward group, the winger managed to up his production to a pace of 31 goals and 64 points per 82 across the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons.

However, with Detroit firmly in a rebuild, Mantha was dealt to the Washington Capitals in the shortended 2021 season. In Washington though, Mantha’s production really took a hit. Across parts of four seasons with the team, Mantha scored at a pace of just 21 goals and 43 points per 82, marking a fairly significant decline in production.

The forward was dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights for a playoff run ahead of the trade deadline this season, but didn’t make a huge impact, and ended up being held out of the lineup in the playoffs.

But while Mantha’s production can be inconsistent, he can still add some secondary offense on the wing, with a high ceiling to make more of an impact. For a Flames team that lacks depth after some key departures, he’ll be a good, short-term addition in Calgary.

Comparables

Below we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Flames, and whether it carries fair value. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Mantha now 30 years old, comparables were generally kept to wingers who were between 28 and 32 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for the table below.

1 YEAR

When a player takes a one-year deal, it’s always going to be tough to really assess value. With such limited term, there’s generally no risk for a team in signing a player for a single year, so long as they have a relatively healthy cap situation. For the player as well, depending on their age, they could either go for the most money possible, or could instead take less to play for a team where they’ll be set up for a productive season, and thus a larger payout in a year’s time.

As a result, there’s a pretty huge discrepancy in regards to projecting a player’s cap hit on a one-year deal. Comparables for Mantha are below.

Of the comparables from 2020 onwards, they would have Mantha anywhere between $2.25M and $6M. Again, it’s a little tougher to nail down value from there, given the unpredictability of cap hits when it comes to one-year deals. Jonathan Drouin’s production was much higher than Jason Zucker’s this year, for example, but took a deal at half the price of Zucker’s one-year contract.

So in regards to the value, a $3.5M cap hit is fair, and even likely on the lower end of what the winger could’ve made: six of the nine comps would have him above that mark.

But more importantly, not only does the deal carry no risk for Calgary, but they also have the opportunity to flip him to a contender for assets at the trade deadline, assuming the Flames are out of the playoff race. This year, the Capitals fetched a second and fourth-round pick for Mantha, so there’s a good chance Calgary would be able to get a similar package.

With a one-year deal, Mantha also has the chance to possibly build his value. He should get a big role in Calgary given the lack of high-end talent, and a strong showing could set him up for a bigger pay-day next July.

While Mantha ended up signing a one-year deal though, below, we take a look at what Mantha likely would’ve gotten if he had signed a deal with more term.

4 YEARS

If Mantha had signed for term, four years would’ve been the most likely outcome based on his age and production, with comps below.

Comparables would’ve had him anywhere from about $3.4M on the low end, up to $6.5M on the high end for a four-year contract. That said, the majority of comps from 2020 onwards are on the lower end of the table, showing that teams aren’t willing to give out as much money to wingers of Mantha’s age and production, as opposed to a little ways back.

Still, even recent comparables would’ve had Mantha making more than $4M per year on a four-year deal, likely between $4.5M and $5M per year (with a great comp in Tyler Bertuzzi even projecting up to $5.5M per year).

Final Analysis

With a one-year deal, both the player and team benefit. The Flames get Mantha at a reasonable, or even slightly low cap hit, with his value based on other comps likely being around $4M on a one-year deal. They’ll also likely have the opportunity to flip him for assets at the trade deadline.

For Mantha, it represents a change of scenery, on a team where he’s going to get a large role. If he can produce at a rate close to the levels seen back when he was in Detroit, he’ll be lined up for a bigger contract next summer.