Seider will likely become the Red Wings’ highest-paid defenseman.
Player Overview
Selected by the Detroit Red Wings in a 2019 draft day shocker, Moritz Seider has proved that Steve Yzerman made the right choice at sixth overall.
Making the jump to the NHL in the 2021-22 season, Seider had an outstanding rookie year, where he posted 50 points in 82 games, and took home the Calder Trophy.
While Seider hasn’t necessarily seen a jump in his production or usage since his Calder-winning season, his numbers have remained very consistent from year-to-year. Over his three NHL seasons, the defenseman has posted between 42 and 50 points in each year, while averaging between 22:20 and 23:10 in ice time, not missing a single game over those three seasons.
Seider has all the tools to take another step with his game as well. He’s active in the offensive zone, but can be tough to play against in his own end, and can be counted on for physicality. Despite his age, Seider faced the highest quality of competition of any defenseman on the Red Wings last season, while also getting the lowest percentage of offensive zone starts (according to Dobber’s Player Usage Chart).
The defenseman is set to be a pillar of the team’s core for the next decade, as the Red Wings work their way back to the playoffs.
What We Know
- Steve Yzerman has reiterated that a contract will get done with Seider, it’ll just be a matter of what term he’s signed for.
Comparables
Below, we project what Seider’s deal could look like at different lengths. With Seider now 23 years old, the comparables used will generally be defensemen who were between 23 and 25 years old in the first year of their deal.
For readers using mobile view, the tables below allow for horizontal scrolling.
8 YEARS
Eight years would be the maximum term possible for Seider’s deal, with comparables below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $88M Cap Hit |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 2024 | 42 82GP | 45 246GP | 22:22 | 22:51 | ||
| *Charlie McAvoy | 25 | 2022 | 48 51GP | 42 235GP | 24:00 | 22:51 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.13M 8 years |
| Miro Heiskanen | 22 | 2021 | 40 55GP | 38 205GP | 24:58 | 23:50 | $8.45M 8 years | $9.12M 8 years |
| *Aaron Ekblad | 21 | 2017 | 38 78GP | 39 159GP | 21:41 | 21:45 | $7.50M 8 years | $8.80M 8 years |
| Jacob Trouba | 25 | 2019 | 50 82GP | 36 408GP | 22:53 | 22:53 | $8.00M 8 years | $8.64M 8 years |
| *Thomas Chabot | 23 | 2020 | 64 70GP | 49 134GP | 24:17 | 20:58 | $8.00M 8 years | $8.64M 8 years |
| *Jake Sanderson | 22 | 2024 | 34 77GP | 34 77GP | 21:55 | 21:55 | $8.05M 8 years | $8.05M 8 years |
| Mike Matheson | 24 | 2018 | 17 81GP | 17 84GP | 21:03 | 20:56 | $4.88M 8 years | $5.40M 8 years |
| **Mikey Anderson | 24 | 2023 | 19 55GP | 16 172GP | 21:49 | 20:55 | $4.13M 8 years | $4.35M 8 years |
**Deal signed mid-season – Points/82 pace prior to signing are used for signing year stats.
Seider’s numbers are much better than both Mike Matheson and Mikey Anderson at the bottom of the table. Then while Jake Sanderson is a little more comparable, Seider is still better in every category, pointing to the fact that his value would be a little ways above the $8M mark on an eight-year deal.
After that though, it gets a bit tougher to determine Seider’s value, with the remaining comps ranging from $8.6M to $10.1M.
While Seider’s production and career ice time do compare fairly well to Charlie McAvoy, the difference in signing year ice time points to the fact that Seider would be a little lower than McAvoy’s $10.1M adjusted cap hit. Meanwhile, though Seider had slightly better production than Miro Heiskanen, his ice time was quite a ways lower.
That leaves three compararables all between an $8.6M and $8.8M adjusted cap hit, in Thomas Chabot, Jacob Trouba and Aaron Ekblad. With these comps though, there’s a bit of mixed-messaging in where Seider would be likely to fall. Though Seider was higher than (Ekblad $8.8M adjusted cap hit) in every category, he was lower than Thomas Chabot ($8.64M adjusted cap hit) in almost every category.
That said, the Jacob Trouba deal likely points to the fact that Seider is still right around this range. Seider and Trouba had very similar ice time, and though Trouba’s signing year production was higher than Seider, he was roughly just as much lower when it came to career ice time.
As a result, we’re likely looking at somewhere between $8.5M and $9M for Seider on an eight-year contract.
7 YEARS
A seven-year deal would carry huge security for Seider, but would mean he re-enters the market a year earlier, in 2031.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $88M Cap Hit |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 2024 | 42 82GP | 45 246GP | 22:22 | 22:51 | ||
| **Adam Fox | 24 | 2022 | 72 64GP | 60 134GP | 24:39 | 21:39 | $9.50M 7 years | $10.13M 7 years |
| *Owen Power | 22 | 2024 | 36 79GP | 36 87GP | 23:48 | 23:39 | $8.35M 7 years | $8.35M 7 years |
| Nick Leddy | 24 | 2015 | 33 62GP | 30 320GP | 20:11 | 18:26 | $5.50M 7 years | $6.78M 7 years |
| Jaccob Slavin | 24 | 2018 | 34 82GP | 31 145GP | 23:26 | 22:22 | $5.30M 7 years | $5.87M 7 years |
| Shea Theodore | 23 | 2018 | 39 61GP | 33 114GP | 20:21 | 19:14 | $5.20M 7 years | $5.76M 7 years |
| Samuel Girard | 22 | 2020 | 27 82GP | 26 155GP | 19:54 | 18:50 | $5.00M 7 years | $5.40M 7 years |
| Oscar Klefbom | 23 | 2016 | 27 60GP | 24 77GP | 22:00 | 20:38 | $4.17M 7 years | $5.03M 7 years |
| *Mattias Samuelson | 23 | 2023 | 20 42GP | 18 54GP | 20:00 | 19:33 | $4.28M 7 years | $4.62M 7 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
Of the comps though, Seider is well above any deal from Nick Leddy and below, but also well below the Adam Fox comp.
As a result, the best comp available would be Owen Power. While Power has the slightly higher ice time, Seider has the slightly higher production. The discrepancy in career games played would likely have Seider a little above Power’s $8.35M cap hit, but with limited comps, it still acts as the best look at what kind of cap hit the defender could get on a seven-year deal. As a result, Seider would likely be slightly below his projected cap hit for an eight-year deal, likely around the $8.5M mark on a seven-year contract.
6 YEARS
Six-year deals have become a little less popular for defensemen coming off their entry-level contract. While they were relatively common in the mid-2010s, there’s been a bit of a shift towards defensemen either signing seven or eight-year contracts right away, or opting for a bridge-deal instead, to set themselves up for a bigger pay-out in a few years.
That said, it remains an option for Seider, and the benefit would be that it’s the longest term possible that would still allow him to re-enter free agency before 30 years old. Comparables are below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $88M Cap Hit |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 2024 | 42 82GP | 45 246GP | 22:22 | 22:51 | ||
| Cale Makar | 23 | 2021 | 82 44GP | 76 101GP | 24:19 | 22:27 | $9.00M 6 years | $9.72M 6 years |
| Quinn Hughes | 22 | 2021 | 60 56GP | 62 129GP | 22:48 | 22:08 | $7.85M 6 years | $8.48M 6 years |
| Ivan Provorov | 22 | 2019 | 26 82GP | 32 246GP | 25:07 | 23:45 | $6.75M 6 years | $7.29M 6 years |
| Dougie Hamilton | 22 | 2015 | 48 72GP | 38 178GP | 21:20 | 19:32 | $5.75M 6 years | $7.09M 6 years |
| Seth Jones | 22 | 2016 | 31 81GP | 28 240GP | 22:05 | 20:32 | $5.40M 6 years | $6.51M 6 years |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | 22 | 2016 | 41 82GP | 27 194GP | 25:17 | 22:19 | $5.40M 6 years | $6.51M 6 years |
| Hampus Lindholm | 22 | 2016 | 29 80GP | 32 236GP | 22:00 | 21:04 | $5.25M 6 years | $6.33M 6 years |
| Esa Lindell | 25 | 2019 | 32 82GP | 26 239GP | 24:20 | 22:39 | $5.80M 6 years | $6.26M 6 years |
| Morgan Rielly | 22 | 2016 | 36 82GP | 32 236GP | 23:14 | 20:30 | $5.00M 6 years | $6.03M 6 years |
| Brady Skjei | 24 | 2018 | 25 82GP | 31 169GP | 21:02 | 19:12 | $5.25M 6 years | $5.81M 6 years |
| Noah Hanifin | 21 | 2018 | 33 79GP | 28 239GP | 18:52 | 18:14 | $4.90M 6 years | $5.42M 6 years |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 24 | 2017 | 42 76GP | 49 142GP | 19:36 | 19:43 | $4.50M 6 years | $5.28M 6 years |
| Jonas Brodin | 22 | 2015 | 20 71GP | 20 195GP | 24:10 | 23:50 | $4.17M 6 years | $5.14M 6 years |
| Jakob Chychrun | 21 | 2019 | 23 50GP | 24 118GP | 20:15 | 18:11 | $4.60M 6 years | $4.97M 6 years |
| *OIli Maatta | 22 | 2016 | 25 53GP | 29 151GP | 19:36 | 19:11 | $4.08M 6 years | $4.92M 6 years |
| Rasmus Andersson | 24 | 2020 | 26 70GP | 21 160GP | 19:56 | 17:43 | $4.55M 6 years | $4.91M 6 years |
| Damon Severson | 23 | 2017 | 32 80GP | 28 203GP | 20:21 | 19:59 | $4.17M 6 years | $4.89M 6 years |
| John Marino | 24 | 2021 | 21 52GP | 30 108GP | 20:44 | 20:29 | $4.40M 6 years | $4.75M 6 years |
| Brett Pesce | 24 | 2018 | 20 82GP | 20 151GP | 21:12 | 20:05 | $4.03M 6 years | $4.46M 6 years |
| Brandon Carlo | 25 | 2021 | 12 27GP | 14 324GP | 18:43 | 20:13 | $4.10M 6 years | $4.43M 6 years |
Based on the comps, Seider’s numbers are better than any defenseman from Seth Jones and below. As a result, the best comps would be four top ones, from Dougie Hamilton’s $7.1M adjusted cap hit and above.
That said, of the top two comps, Seider’s value is definitively lower than both Makar and Hughes. Though Seider has much more career experience than both defenders did when signing, the production is just drastically different, with the ice time comparison not offsetting the difference in production.
At the same time, Seider’s numbers are above Hamilton in all categories, except for slightly lower signing year ice time. Then while Ivan Provorov’s ice time is much higher, Seider had the much better production.
As a result, he’s likely somewhere between the $7.3M adjusted cap hit from the Provorov deal on the low end, to the $8.5M adjusted Hughes cap hit on the high end. Of the sets of comps though, he’s likely closer to the Provorov/Hamilton cap hits than the Hughes/Makar cap hits, likely not breaking into the $8M range, and probably closer to the $7.5M mark or only slightly above.
3 YEARS
While a deal between a six to eight years is possible, if Seider doesn’t go long-term on his contract, he’ll be set for a bridge-deal instead. It’s very rare that a defenseman of his age and calibre would get a four or five-year deal, given it would basically walk him right to unrestricted free agency.
Comparables for three-year deals are below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $88M Cap Hit |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 2023 | 42 82GP | 45 246GP | 22:22 | 22:51 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21 | 2021 | 34 56GP | 45 197GP | 21:36 | 20:44 | $6.00M 3 years | $6.48M 3 years |
| Zach Werenski | 22 | 2019 | 44 82GP | 44 237GP | 22:54 | 22:08 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.40M 3 years |
| Charlie McAvoy | 22 | 2019 | 43 54GP | 42 117GP | 22:10 | 22:10 | $4.90M 3 years | $5.29M 3 years |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 22 | 2020 | 40 70GP | 38 228GP | 20:22 | 17:41 | $4.80M 3 years | $5.18M 3 years |
| Filip Hronek | 24 | 2021 | 38 56GP | 39 167GP | 23:23 | 22:38 | $4.40M 3 years | $4.75M 3 years |
| Noah Dobson | 22 | 2022 | 52 80GP | 37 160GP | 21:28 | 18:16 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.27M 3 years |
| Will Butcher | 24 | 2019 | 32 78GP | 38 159GP | 19:16 | 17:38 | $3.73M 3 years | $4.03M 3 years |
| Ryan Lindgren | 23 | 2021 | 26 51GP | 21 116GP | 20:00 | 17:59 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.24M 3 years |
| Erik Cernak | 23 | 2020 | 15 67GP | 18 125GP | 18:57 | 19:05 | $2.95M 3 years | $3.19M 3 years |
| Martin Fehervary | 24 | 2023 | 20 67GP | 18 152GP | 20:00 | 19:40 | $2.68M 3 years | $2.82M 3 years |
| Adam Boqvist | 22 | 2022 | 35 52GP | 33 128GP | 17:03 | 16:46 | $2.60M 3 years | $2.77M 3 years |
| Philippe Myers | 23 | 2020 | 26 50GP | 21 71GP | 17:06 | 16:36 | $2.55M 3 years | $2.75M 3 years |
| Henri Jokiharju | 22 | 2021 | 14 46GP | 19 153GP | 18:23 | 18:00 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.70M 3 years |
| Alexander Romanov | 22 | 2022 | 13 79GP | 12 133GP | 20:24 | 19:07 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.67M 3 years |
| Jake Bean | 23 | 2021 | 23 42GP | 22 44GP | 14:32 | 14:16 | $2.33M 3 years | $2.52M 3 years |
Based on the comps, we get a pretty good sense of where Seider would land on a three-year deal. His numbers are well above any defenseman from Will Butcher and below, in all categories. Then while Noah Dobson ($4.27M adjusted cap hit) did have the better signing year production, Seider was better in all other categories, pointing to the fact he’d be above that mark as well.
The best range for a three-year projection for Seider would come from the top five comps on the table, between Filip Hronek’s $4.75M adjusted cap hit and Rasmus Dahlin’s $6.5M adjusted cap hit.
Seider was a little lower in signing year ice time than Hronek, but was higher in all other categories, along with games played. Meanwhile, Seider also cleared Sergachev in all categories, pointing to the fact that he’s likely a little ways above the $5M mark on a three-year deal.
On the high side though, while Seider’s numbers are actually better than those of Dahlin, you could probably argue that Dahlin was simply overpaid. His numbers were fairly comparable to those of defensemen who were being paid roughly $1M less per year. So Dahlin’s deal may not really help to project fair market value for Seider.
Two of the comps that give us the best idea of Seider’s value though would be Charlie McAvoy ($5.3M adjusted cap hit) and Zach Werenski ($5.4M adjusted cap hit). Seider had very comparable production to McAvoy, and the only categories where there was a bit of a gap was career ice time and career games played. So while Seider’s value is likely a little higher than McAvoy’s cap hit, it’s not by much.
Then with Werenski, the numbers were extremely similar across the board, especially in terms of production and career games played. Then while Werenski had slightly higher signing year ice time, Seider had slightly higher career ice time.
As a result, we get a pretty clear look that Seider’s value on a three-year deal would end up right around the $5.5M range.
2 YEARS
The shortest deal we’d likely see for Seider would be a two-year bridge deal. A one-year deal for a player of Seider’s calibre and age would be extremely unlikely, and without arbitration rights, it would result in a really low cap hit.
Comparables for two-year deals are below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $88M Cap Hit |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 2024 | 42 82GP | 45 246GP | 22:22 | 22:51 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo | 25 | 2020 | 64 68GP | 43 200GP | 19:17 | 18:26 | $4.80M 2 years | $5.18M 2 years |
| Evan Bouchard | 24 | 2023 | 40 82GP | 40 184GP | 18:31 | 18:34 | $3.90M 2 years | $4.11M 2 years |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 79GP | 29 214GP | 21:57 | 21:14 | $3.87M 2 years | $4.08M 2 years |
| Bowen Byram | 22 | 2023 | 47 42GP | 39 91GP | 21:53 | 19:54 | $3.85M 2 years | $4.06M 2 years |
| Brandon Montour | 24 | 2018 | 33 80GP | 29 107GP | 20:28 | 19:41 | $3.38M 2 years | $3.74M 2 years |
| Jacob Trouba | 22 | 2016 | 22 81GP | 28 211GP | 19:19 | 18:54 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.62M 2 years |
| Darnell Nurse | 23 | 2018 | 26 82GP | 20 197GP | 22:15 | 20:19 | $3.20M 2 years | $3.54M 2 years |
| Travis Sanheim | 23 | 2019 | 35 82GP | 28 131GP | 19:34 | 18:04 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.51M 2 years |
| Josh Morrissey | 23 | 2018 | 26 81GP | 23 164GP | 20:27 | 19:57 | $3.15M 2 years | $3.49M 2 years |
| *Ryan Murray | 23 | 2016 | 25 56GP | 25 134GP | 22:31 | 20:54 | $2.83M 2 years | $3.41M 2 years |
| J.J. Moser | 24 | 2024 | 27 80GP | 29 205GP | 20:34 | 20:22 | $3.38M 2 years | $3.38M 2 years |
| Cody Ceci | 23 | 2016 | 28 75GP | 22 205GP | 19:18 | 18:48 | $2.80M 2 years | $3.38M 2 years |
| Neal Pionk | 24 | 2019 | 29 73GP | 32 101GP | 21:10 | 21:30 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.24M 2 years |
| Matt Dumba | 22 | 2016 | 26 81GP | 24 152GP | 16:50 | 15:46 | $2.55M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
| Dante Fabbro | 23 | 2021 | 25 40GP | 18 108GP | 19:19 | 18:54 | $2.40M 2 years | $2.59M 2 years |
| Esa Lindell | 23 | 2017 | 20 73GP | 19 77GP | 21:52 | 21:28 | $2.20M 2 years | $2.58M 2 years |
Seider’s numbers put him above any comps from Brandon Montour and below. As a result, the best comps would be from Bowen Byram ($4.05M adjusted cap hit) and higher.
That said, Seider’s numbers are still generally better than any of Byram, K’Andre Miller, or Evan Bouchard. With all three defenders around a $4.1M adjusted cap hit, we have a pretty clear sense that Seider would be above this mark.
The last comp would be Tony DeAngelo. While DeAngelo had the much higher signing year production, and career production was even similar, Seider had significantly higher ice time. While DeAngelo may be a bit of an outlier in terms of how much he got paid versus the other comps, Seider’s numbers still point to him being quite a ways above the $4M mark on a two-year deal, likely get getting close to the the $5M mark instead.
Projection
A long-term deal for Seider would come in between six and eight years, with projections below.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 8 Years | $8.75M | $9.50M | $8.00M |
| 7 Years | $8.50M | $9.00M | $8.00M |
| 6 Years | $7.67M | $8.50M | $7.00M |
Any deal for four or five years would be unlikely, given it would walk Seider right to UFA status. So if Seider didn’t go for a long-term extension, a two or three-year bridge deal would be expected.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 Years | $5.50M | $6.50M | $4.75M |
| 2 Years | $4.75M | $5.25M | $4.00M |
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