Swayman is set to take the reins as the Bruins’ starter for the forseeable future.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Over the last three seasons, Jeremy Swayman has solidified himself as one of the most consistent goalies in the NHL. Posting between a .914 and .920 save percentage across his three full NHL seasons, Swayman, along with Linus Ullmark, have provided the Bruins with perhaps the NHL’s best goaltending tandem.

However, with Ullmark being dealt to Ottawa earlier in the offseason, the stage is set for Swayman to take over as the team’s true starter. While Joonas Korpisalo can take on some of the workload as well, the expectation is that Swayman will get a far larger role in the coming years, likely pushing over the 50-game mark for the first time in his career.

While he has yet to take on a really large role in a single season, the Bruins have a goalie in Swayman who could potentially be the team’s long-term starter, for the majority of the next decade.

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What We Know

• With Linus Ullmark traded to Ottawa, Swayman is expected to take on a larger workload next season.
• Swayman elected not to file for salary arbitration this year.

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Comparables

With Swayman turning 26 years old in November, we’ll take a look at goalies who were between 24 and 28 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31) and posted similar numbers before signing, to get a sense of what Swayman’s deal could look like.

7/8 YEARS

Maximum-term contracts for goalies have become fairly rare. If Swayman was to sign a seven or eight-year deal though, the two notable comparables who signed around the same age are Andrei Vasilevskiy and John Gibson.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
*Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	2020	925 53GP	65%	919 208GP	$9.50M 8 years	$10.26M 8 years
*John Gibson	26	2019	926 60GP	73%	923 178GP	$6.40M 8 years	$6.91M 8 years

The issue with projecting this length of deal is that the comparables in Vasilevskiy and Gibson have very similar numbers, but drastically different cap hits on their respective eight-year contracts. As a result, it’s very difficult to determine how Swayman’s value aligns against the comparables.

If we split the difference between the Vasilevskiy and Gibson adjusted cap hits, the middle ground would be right around $8.5M. So if the numbers that Vasilevskiy and Gibson posted equate to roughly an $8.5M cap hit in terms of value, we know Swayman would be much lower.

While his career save percentage is very comparable, he had a much lower signing-year save percentage, a lower percentage of games played in his signing year, and less career experience. As a result, rather than his value being around $8M, he’s likely a lot closer to the $7M mark. With so few comps around Swayman’s age for seven or eight-year deals, it’s difficult to get any closer in terms of a projection, but somewhere roughly around $7M would be the likely landing spot for Swayman’s cap hit on a seven or eight-year deal.

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6 YEARS

A six-year deal is another possibility for Swayman’s contract, with comps below.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV% in Signing Year	% of Games Started in Signing Year	SV% over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
Connor Hellebuyck	25	2018	924 67GP	82%	917 149GP	$6.17M 6 years	$6.83M 6 years
**Jordan Binnington	28	2021	908 19GP	–	915 102GP	$6.00M 6 years	$6.48M 6 years
Martin Jones	28	2018	912 65GP	79%	916 164GP	$5.75M 6 years	$6.36M 6 years

Of the comps though, we know Swayman’s stats are better than those of both Binnington and Jones. At the same time, he also had a much lower percentage of games played in his signing year than Jones did. So while Swayman’s numbers are quite a bit better, his value may not be drastically higher than Jones’ $6.35M adjusted cap hit.

Meanwhile, his numbers actually don’t look quite as strong against Connor Hellebuyck. With a lower signing year save percentage and a much lower percentage of games played in his signing year, Swayman’s cap hit would be below Hellebuyck’s $6.83M.

As a result, we get a pretty defined range of what we could expect for Swayman on a six-year deal, likely around the $6.5M mark.

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5 YEARS

A five-year deal is another option, which would set up Swayman to re-enter the market at almost 31 years old.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
Braden Holtby	26	2015	923 73GP	89%	921 178GP	$6.10M 5 years	$7.52M 5 years
Frederik Andersen	26	2016	919 43GP	52%	918 125GP	$5.00M 5 years	$6.03M 5 years
*Elvis Merzlikins	28	2021	916 28GP	50%	920 61GP	$5.40M 5 years	$5.83M 5 years
Tristan Jarry	28	2023	909 47GP	57%	914 206GP	$5.38M 5 years	$5.67M 5 years
**Thatcher Demko	26	2021	917 25GP	–	911 62GP	$5.00M 5 years	$5.40M 5 years

Based on the comps, we can also get a pretty defined sense of what Swayman could make at this length of deal.

His deal should come in quite a ways below Braden Holtby’s $7.5M adjusted cap hit, based on lower save percentage both in his signing year and over his career, as well as fewer career games played and a much lower percentage of games played in his signing year.

After that though, Swayman’s value is likely above any other comp on the list. His numbers were well above Tristan Jarry, while he had much more experience than Thatcher Demko, as well as a much higher career save percentage.

Two of the most interesting comps are Elvis Merzlikins ($5.8M adjusted cap hit) and Frederik Andersen ($6M adjusted cap hit). His numbers were identical to Merzlikin’s at the time of signing, while also having played a very similar number of games in his signing year. However, the key difference is that Swayman has over twice the career experience of Merzlikins, so we can say pretty definitively that Swayman would come in above that $5.8M mark.

Then comparing him to Andersen, Swayman had the slightly better career save percentage, but Andersen had the slightly better signing year save percentage. Meanwhile, the goalies played a very similar percentage of their team’s games in their signing year. Swayman had about 20 more games of experience when compared to Andersen, but while Swayman may come in a touch above Andersen’s $6M adjusted cap hit, the deal represents a very good look at what Swayman could make on a five-year deal, likely just slightly north of $6M.

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4 YEARS

Four years is also one of the more likely possible lengths for Swayman’s contract.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
*Sergei Bobrovsky	27	2015	914 29GP	–	918 208GP	$7.43M 4 years	$9.16M 4 years
Matt Murray	26	2020	899 38GP	54%	914 199GP	$6.25M 4 years	$6.75M 4 years
Igor Shesterkin	26	2021	932 35GP	63%	921 47GP	$5.67M 4 years	$6.12M 4 years
Juuse Saros	26	2021	927 36GP	64%	920 155GP	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years
Linus Ullmark	28	2021	917 20GP	36%	912 117GP	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years
Jake Allen	27	2017	920 47GP	57%	915 99GP	$4.35M 4 years	$5.10M 4 years

At the same time, it’s somewhat tough to pinpoint the goalie’s value on a four-year deal. Comparing his numbers to some of the highest comps in Bobrovsky and Murray, Swayman’s numbers look better. However, lower down the table, Swayman’s stats actually don’t compare as well against goalies at a lower cap hit, in Igor Shesterkin and Juuse Saros. As a result, finding a defined range is a little difficult.

A decent comp would be Swayman’s former tandem partner, Linus Ullmark. That said, with a much higher percentage of games played in his signing year, as well as a much higher career save percentage, and more career experience, we know Swayman would be a little ways above Ullmark’s $5.4M adjusted cap hit. So while it’s a little tougher to get more precise with a projection for a four-year deal, the most likely cap hit scenario would be somewhere up around the $6M mark.

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3 YEARS

At three years, we’d verge into unlikely territory for Swayman’s deal, based on a shorter length of contract than expected.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
*Cal Petersen	28	2022	911 35GP	63%	916 54GP	$5.00M 3 years	$5.33M 3 years
Ville Husso	27	2022	919 40GP	49%	912 57GP	$4.75M 3 years	$5.07M 3 years
Ilya Sorokin	26	2021	918 22GP	39%	918 22GP	$4.00M 3 years	$4.32M 3 years
Jacob Markstrom	27	2017	915 33GP	40%	904 83GP	$3.67M 3 years	$4.31M 3 years
Jake Oettinger	24	2022	914 48GP	59%	913 77GP	$4.00M 3 years	$4.27M 3 years
Filip Gustavsson	25	2023	931 39GP	48%	920 66GP	$3.75M 3 years	$3.95M 3 years
Tristan Jarry	25	2020	921 33GP	47%	914 62GP	$3.50M 3 years	$3.78M 3 years
Chris Driedger	27	2021	927 23GP	41%	929 38GP	$3.50M 3 years	$3.78M 3 years
Philipp Grubauer	27	2018	923 35GP	43%	923 101GP	$3.33M 3 years	$3.69M 3 years
Alexander Georgiev	26	2022	898 33GP	40%	908 129GP	$3.40M 3 years	$3.63M 3 years
Vitek Vanecek	26	2022	908 42GP	51%	908 79GP	$3.40M 3 years	$3.63M 3 years

Comparing him to all goalies listed above who took three-year deals, Swayman’s numbers are either definitively better than any goalie listed, or he has a much higher number of career games played. Even comparing him to the two goalies listed who have an adjusted cap hit at $5M+ (Cal Petersen and Ville Husso), and Swayman’s numbers look significantly better.

As a result, in the unlikely scenario that Swayman did end up on a three-year deal, it’s likely to end up a little ways above Petersen’s $5.33M adjusted cap hit.

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2 YEARS

Two years would be another unlikely term for Swayman’s deal, with comparables below.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
Adin Hill	27	2023	915 27GP	33%	910 101GP	$4.90M 2 years	$5.16M 2 years
Jontathan Bernier	27	2015	912 58GP	71%	916 175GP	$4.13M 2 years	$5.09M 2 years
Petr Mrazek	24	2016	921 54GP	66%	920 94GP	$4.00M 2 years	$4.82M 2 years
Jordan Binnington	26	2019	927 32GP	39%	926 33GP	$4.40M 2 years	$4.75M 2 years
Elvis Merzlikins	26	2020	923 33GP	47%	923 33GP	$4.00M 2 years	$4.32M 2 years

Once again, Swayman’s numbers look better than those of both Hill and Bernier, at the top of the table. While Mrazek, Binnington and Merzlikins all had great numbers, they really lacked in terms of career experience.

Adin Hill likely did see a bit of an inflated cap hit after his Stanley Cup win in Vegas, which could mean Swayman’s deal may not be drastically higher, while Bernier had a much higher percentage of games played in his signing year. Still though, we can pretty comfortably say that Swayman’s deal would come in well above the $5M mark, based on his numbers being quite a bit better than both Hill and Bernier.

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1 YEAR

Coming off a one-year deal, it’s unlikely that Swayman takes another. Especially after not filing for arbitration, a one-year contract may be the most unlikely contract length possible.

Player	Age at first year of deal	First Year Of Deal	SV%/GP in Signing Year	% of Games Played in Signing Year	SV%/GP over Career	Contract	Adjusted to $88M cap
Jeremy Swayman	26	2024	916 44GP	54%	920 144GP
Robin Lehner	28	2019	930 46GP	56%	918 265GP	$5.00M 1 year	$5.40M 1 year
Ilya Samsonov	26	2023	919 42GP	51%	908 131GP	$3.55M 1 year	$3.74M 1 year
Jeremy Swayman	25	2023	920 37GP	45%	920 88GP	$3.48M 1 year	$3.67M 1 year

That said, in the case he did opt for another one-year contract, it’s likely to come in higher than his $3.5M deal this season.

Ilya Samsonov ($3.75M adjusted cap hit) had a fairly comparable signing year, percentage of games played, and career experience, but his career numbers were drastically lower than Swayman’s stats. At the same time though, Robin Lehner had more career experience, and a much higher signing year save percentage, which points to the fact Swayman’s value would be lower than Lehner’s $5.4M adjusted cap hit.

With Swayman somewhere in between those two numbers on a one-year deal, his value would likely be somewhere around the $4.5M range. Again though, it’s a really unlikely outcome.

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Projection

A deal between four and six years may be most likely for Swayman’s contract, at varying cap hits.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
6 years	$6.50M	$7.00M	$6.00M
5 years	$6.20M	$6.50M	$6.00M
4 years	$6.00M	$6.50M	$5.50M

If Swayman did end up with a seven or eight-year contract, it would likely come in around the $7M mark.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
7/8 years	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M

A deal between one and three years would be the least likely outcome for Swayman’s contract.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
3 years	$5.75M	$6.00M	$5.50M
2 years	$5.50M	$6.00M	$5.00M
1 year	$4.50M	$5.25M	$4.00M