With Brett Pesce leaving Carolina, Walker should get a great opportunity within the Hurricanes’ defense group.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

Sean Walker signed a five-year contract with the Carolina Hurricanes as free agency opened on July 1, carrying a $3.6M cap hit. The deal comes with a partial no-trade clause for the first three years.

Below, we take a look at Walker’s deal, and whether the Hurricanes are getting good value.

Player Overview

Turning pro in 2017 after going undrafted, Sean Walker quickly rose up the Los Angeles Kings’ depth chart. Taking advantage of what was a weak prospect pool for the Kings at that point, Walker became one of the team’s better prospects, and partway through the 2018-19 season, he had already earned a role in the NHL.

The defenseman had a couple good years in Los Angeles from there, but ended up missing all but six games in the 2021-22 season with a knee injury. By the time he returned for the 2022-23 season, the Kings had a much more crowded blue line, and Walker’s role was dramatically reduced. With a year remaining on his contract and the Kings in a cap crunch, Walker was offloaded to the Philadelphia Flyers in the summer of 2023.

The change of scenery sparked the defender’s game though, with Walker getting a much bigger opportunity in Philadelphia. After rebuilding his value through 63 games with the team, the defender was dealt to the Colorado Avalanche at the trade deadline.

Signing a long-term deal in Carolina, Walker should get an opportunity to solidify himself as a core piece of the team’s blue line. With Brett Pesce gone, it’ll be a right side featuring Walker, along with Brent Burns and Jalen Chatfield.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at how Walker’s deal compares to those of other defenders who signed five-year contracts. With Walker turning 30 years old in November, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 28 and 32 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, the table below allows for horizontal scrolling.

5 YEARS

Five years isn’t quite as common of a term as four years for a defender with Walker’s age and stats, but comparables are listed below.

Of the comps, Walker’s value is well below any player from Tyler Myers and above.

Then while he did have better signing year production than Rasmus Ristolainen, he was lower in every other category. He actually does compare a lot better to Karl Alzner though, with better production, but still has lower ice time.

With Jason Demers, while Walker’s numbers are lower in every category, it’s by a relatively small amount. So though his value was below the $5.4M range from the adjusted cap hits of Ristolainen, Alzner and Demers, there’s a case to be made it’s not a massive step below.

Then with Jamie Oleksiak at a $5M adjusted cap hit, Walker was actually higher in every category aside from signing year ice time, pointing to the fact that there’s at least an argument his value could’ve been as high as nearly $5M per year on a five-year deal.

That said, his numbers are still less convincing against those of Jack Johnson, at a $3.6M adjusted cap hit. While Walker’s signing year production was substantially higher, he was lower in every other category, including over five minutes below Johnson in career ice time. So while some of the higher comps may have pointed to Walker’s value possibly being close to the $5M mark, the relatively fair comparison to the Johnson deal would actually have his value right at his current $3.6M cap hit.

Considering Walker was only a year removed from somewhat of a cap dump trade, his value was likely impacted to an extent. So while some of the comps may have suggested his cap hit could’ve been higher, considering the risk involved with signing Walker to a five-year deal based on the limited sample size of improved play, he does arguably align closer to his current $3.6M cap hit, based on the Johnson deal.

There’s also an argument that Walker’s deal shouldn’t have been quite as long as it was. Far more comparables for four-year contracts are below.

4 YEARS

From T.J. Brodie and above, Walker’s numbers are lower in every category than all the comps listed.

However, he does compare quite a lot better against a lot of the other comps on this table. Even against Brendan Smith ($5.1M adjusted cap hit), the ice time was very similar, while Walker had much higher production. Still though, looking down the table, what likely hurts Walker’s value is his career ice time.

Over his career, Walker hasn’t traditionally always held a top-four role. Through a lot of his time in Los Angeles, he was sheltered behind Drew Doughty, and then also ended up below Matt Roy on the depth chart. So with a lack of a sample size as a top-four defensemen, even if his production was quite a bit higher than a lot of the comps here, it’s reasonable to think few teams would’ve been willing to go much higher than his current $3.6M cap hit. Teams would likely be wary of paying Walker as a top-four defender, only for him to end up being more suited to a bottom-pairing role.

That said, there’s probably an argument that on a shorter four-year deal, Walker could’ve broke into the $4M range. In addition to better production, he had higher signing year ice time than all of Jake McCabe, Joel Edmundson and Marco Scandella, while his career ice time wasn’t substantially lower. So while his value wouldn’t likely have been wildly higher than on a five-year deal, comparables suggest he may have been up around $4M instead, if it was a four-year contract.

Final Analysis

Walker’s value certainly isn’t below his $3.6M cap hit, and some comparables would suggest he should’ve gotten more money on either a five-year deal, or a four-year deal. But with a limited sample size of Walker taking on a bigger role, there’s some risk in committing to the defender on a five-year deal. Given the low career usage, a lot of signs point to the Hurricanes getting fair value with Walker’s $3.6M cap hit.