Gostisbehere returns the the Hurricanes with an opportunity for a larger role.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Carolina Hurricanes signed defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere to a three-year contract last week, which carries a $3.2M cap hit. The contract also comes with a partial no-trade clause for all three years.

Below, we take a look at how Gostisbehere’s deal looks for the Hurricanes, and whether the team is getting fair value.

Player Overview

Shayne Gostisbehere has managed to successfully build back his value over the last few seasons.

A Calder Trophy finalist in 2015-16, Gostisbehere had some great years with the Philadelphia Flyers to begin his NHL career. However, as his tenure in Philadelphia went on, he saw his play slip and both his production and ice time decline, to the point where he was sent to the Arizona Coyotes in a cap dump trade, in 2021.

But Gostisbehere’s game has since recovered. The defenseman produced at an 82-game pace of 50 points over his season and a half in Arizona, before being dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes for a playoff run in 2023.

Then upon signing with the Detroit Red Wings last summer, the change of scenery didn’t hurt him at all, scoring 10 goals and 56 points in 81 games with the Red Wings.

Now back in Carolina, Gostisbehere will have an opportunity for a larger role. While he was pretty much exclusively used on the third pairing with the team during his limited stint in 2023, the Hurricanes’ defense group saw quite a bit of turnover this summer. Without Brady Skjei on the second pairing behind Jaccob Slavin, it will come down to a battle between Gostisbehere and Dmitry Orlov for ice time.

While Gostisbehere is coming off a great year in Detroit though, he was also extremely sheltered at 5-on-5, being used in a more offensive role than any other defender on the team, while also facing the lowest quality of competition (according to Dobber’s player usage chart). So it would be up to Gostisbehere to show he can handle a tougher role with the Hurricanes.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at how Gostisbehere’s deal compares to those of other defenders who signed three-year contracts. With Gostisbehere now 31 years old, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 29 and 33 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, the table below allows for horizontal scrolling.

3 YEARS

Looking at the comparables for offensive defensemen who signed three-year contracts around Gostisbehere’s age, there’s a very strong argument that Gostisbehere’s cap hit should’ve come in quite a ways above $3.2M.

Comparing the defenseman’s numbers to those of Mike Reilly at the bottom of the table, Gostisbehere had much higher stats in every category, except for signing year ice time (which was very similar). So right off the bat, we have a good indication that Gostisbehere should be well above of Reilly’s $3.24M adjusted cap hit.

Then comparing him to Kevin Shattenkirk (at a $4.2M adjusted cap hit), once again, Gostisbehere’s numbers compare quite well. While the defenders were very similar in terms of career production and ice time, Gostisbehere had the much higher signing year production. So there’s a good argument that not only should Gostisbehere be well above Reilly’s $3.25M adjusted cap hit, but he should come in a little higher than Shattenkirk’s $4.2M adjusted cap hit as well.

Looking at the two highest-paid comps though, Gostisbehere doesn’t compare as well against Barrie ($4.85M adjusted cap hit). Barrie is higher in every single category – and much higher in most. But at the same time, Gostisbehere actually does compare quite well to Mike Green’s numbers. Gostisbehere and Green had extremely similar career production and signing year ice time, and while Green had higher career ice time, Gostisbehere had higher signing year production. That said, while there’s an argument for Gostisbehere doubling his cap hit based on the Green comparison, Barrie’s deal is also by far the more recent contract, and as a result, it’s the more accurate comparison.

Still, based on how Gostisbehere’s numbers compare to those of Reilly and Shattenkirk, there’s an argument for the defenseman’s value being up a little above the $4.2M mark.

Not only do comparables suggest Gostisbehere’s cap hit should’ve been higher, but there’s also an argument that he could’ve gotten a four-year deal instead.

4 YEARS

Comparables for four-year deals are below.

While Gostisbehere’s ice time is a step back from any comparables from Brodie and above, he does compare a lot better against many other defensemen on the table.

With most of the other comps above, Gostisbehere has better numbers in every category than Ben Chiarot, Chris Tanev, Josh Manson, Kris Russell, and Connor Murphy, except for signing year ice time. Even against other primarily offensive defensemen in Jake Gardiner and Nick Leddy, Gostisbehere’s production was a massive step above them.

So while the difference in signing year ice time does make it difficult to project a value for Gostisbehere on a four-year deal, his numbers do generally point to the fact that a four-year contract wasn’t far-fetched.

Final Analysis

With Gostisbehere on a three-year deal at a $3.2M cap hit, the Hurricanes are getting great value. Comparables would’ve had Gostisbehere quite a bit higher, with a cap hit close to $4.5M on a three-year deal as the range defined by the comparables.

Plus, there’s also an argument that comparables could have put Gostisbehere in line for a possible four-year deal instead. So in addition to getting the defender at a much lower cap hit than expected, the Hurricanes also take on less risk with a three-year deal.