Duclair is an ideal fit within the New York Islanders’ top-six.

• Player Overview
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The New York Islanders signed Anthony Duclair to a four-year contract on Monday, carrying a $3.5 million cap hit. The deal comes with a no-trade clause for the first two years, before becoming a 16-team no-trade list.

Below, we evaluate how the deal looks for the Islanders.

Player Overview

Few players in the NHL have bounced around as much as Anthony Duclair, prior to even hitting 30 years old.

After starting his career with the New York Rangers, Duclair had stints in Arizona, Chicago, Columbus, and Ottawa, playing with six different teams through the first six years of his career. Duclair did find a home in Florida, where he was a great fit from 2021 until 2023, producing at a rate of 26 goals and 59 points per 82 games over his tenure with the Panthers.

However, after Duclair missed the majority of the 2022-23 season with an injury, and with the Panthers looking to clear cap space, the winger was dealt to the San Jose Sharks last summer. The transition didn’t go overly well to begin with, as the forward struggled to find his footing within a depleted Sharks’ forward group. However, after picking up steam as the year went on, he was dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the trade deadline, where he found huge success in his limited time with the team. In 17 regular season games with the Lightning, Duclair managed eight goals and 15 points.

Now on his ninth team with the Islanders, Duclair has an opportunity to fit in really well within the team’s top-six. The winger’s primary asset is his speed, and he’s shown that in the right situation, he can put up big numbers. His offensive floor is also relatively high, and even in a down year, he can likely be counted on for a pace of about 40-45 points per 82.

Comparables

Below we’ll take a look at comparable four-year contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Islanders, and whether it carries fair value. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Duclair turning 29 years old before the first year of his contract, comparables were generally kept to wingers who were between 27 and 31 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for the table below.

First, in regards to the term: four years is fair for Duclair’s contract. Typically, if a winger gets five years or more at Duclair’s age, they’ll usually have higher production. On the other hand, most of the comparables at three years or less for wingers of Duclair’s age would have either 1) lower production or 2) less career experience. So unless Duclair was specifically looking for a shorter-term deal to try to build his value, then re-enter the market later, four years was the most likely term for his contract.

As for the cap hit, we see projections from $3.2M up to $6.2M, based on 17 comparables below.

Of these 17 though, 15 of them would’ve had Duclair coming in above his $3.5 million, pointing to the fact that the Islanders are getting good value on the contract. Additionally, 10 of them would also have him above $4.75M per year, and the Tyler Bertuzzi contract – which Bertuzzi signed at the same age this offseason with similar production – would’ve projected Duclair to be even above the $5M mark on a four-year deal.

At the same time, looking at the comps, we can also see how much signing year typically affects payment rate.

Seven of the eight comps for Duclair’s contract at the bottom of the table were from 2020 or before, while six of the top nine comps were from pre-2020. So clearly, there’s been a shift in terms of wingers in their late 20s with similar production not getting paid at the same premium as they were about half a decade ago.

Based on the eight more recent comps near the bottom of the table, we still see projections as high as Taylor Hall’s $4.78M cap hit. While it’s always possible Duclair could’ve seen that high of a cap hit, the other seven comps all would’ve had him between $3.2M and $4.3M, resulting in a pretty defined range.

Of the lower comps that would’ve had Duclair below $4M though, there were some factors that could’ve led to players getting less money than they otherwise would have. For example, Mason Marchment had less than 100 games of career experience when signing, while Evander Kane was recently coming off a contract termination, and Max Domi very likely took less than he could’ve made in free agency, to stay in Toronto this summer.

With none of these being factors for Duclair, there was certainly an argument that he should’ve been above these comps, with his value likely around $4M per year.

Final Analysis

The Islanders are getting good value with Duclair’s contract. The huge majority of comparables would’ve had the winger coming in above his current $3.5 million cap hit, with many signs pointing towards Duclair’s value being around a $4M cap hit on a four-year deal.

With the winger only about to turn 29 years old, Duclair should remain productive for the duration of the contract, at a very reasonable price tag.