After eight years in Carolina, Teravainen looks set to hit free agency on July 1.
Player Overview
Upon making the jump to the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2014-15, Teuvo Teravainen found immediate success, capturing a Stanley Cup in his first NHL season. But while it looked like the 18th overall pick in 2012 would be a long-term fixture with the team, following one more year with Chicago in 2015-16, the winger was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes, as part of a deal to help offload the Bryan Bickell contract.
In Carolina, Teravainen was given a larger opportunity and grew both his role and impact. Across 555 games with the Hurricanes over eight seasons, Teravainen averaged a pace of about 20 goals and 61 points per 82, including a couple years where he flirted with a point-per-game pace.
However, with Carolina in a cap crunch and Teravainen’s production taking a bit of a dip in recent years, it looks like he’s likely to head elsewhere in free agency.
Teravainen can be a good addition to an acquiring team as a fairly well-rounded, top-six forward. His biggest asset is his playmaking ability, finding teammates to set them up in great spots. The winger also has strong puck control, which aids his ability to delay at times to find a good passing lane. Teravainen can score as well, but sometimes looks for a pass when he’s in a great position to take a shot instead. He’s not usually a shooting threat on the rush as a result, but does have a pretty accurate one-timer and can get into a good spot on the power play for a chance.
Teravainen can’t really drive a line by himself, making him more of a strong complementary piece. But while it’s unlikely we’ll see him eclipse 70 points again, he should still be good for 50-55 points per year.
What We Know
- Teravainen noted a desire to remain in Carolina at the conclusion of the season.
- However, per David Pagnotta, Teravainen is expected to hit the free agent market.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Teravainen’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Teravainen turning 30 years old in September, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing.
6 YEARS
Six years isn’t overly realistic for Teravainen’s deal, but it’s probably the longest deal we could possibly see, even if the likelihood is low.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| *Brendan Gallagher | 29 | 2021 | 33-54 35GP | 26-50 582GP | 30-52 | $6.50M 6 years | $7.02M 6 years | 1.35 | $7.70M 6 years |
| Blake Coleman | 30 | 2021 | 21-46 55GP | 19-34 301GP | 20-40 | $4.90M 6 years | $5.29M 6 years | 1.32 | $7.52M 6 years |
| Loui Eriksson | 31 | 2016 | 30-63 82GP | 24-57 725GP | 27-60 | $6.00M 6 years | $7.23M 6 years | 1.21 | $6.90M 6 years |
| *Nick Foligno | 28 | 2015 | 41-77 34GP | 17-39 500GP | 29-58 | $5.50M 6 years | $6.78M 6 years | 1.17 | $6.67M 6 years |
| Rickard Rakell | 29 | 2022 | 23-48 70GP | 23-51 569GP | 23-50 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.33M 6 years | 1.07 | $6.10M 6 years |
| *Josh Bailey | 29 | 2018 | 21-88 58GP | 14-43 697GP | 18-66 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.53M 6 years | 0.84 | $4.79M 6 years |
| Bryan Rust | 30 | 2022 | 33-79 60GP | 24-52 424GP | 29-66 | $5.13M 6 years | $5.47M 6 years | 0.83 | $4.73M 6 years |
Looking the the comps, they’d have Teravainen anywhere from $4.75M, up to $7.7M. However, the Blake Coleman deal came directly after the forward captured back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, so there was certainly an overpayment via ‘Stanley Cup tax’ that would’ve driven up his payment rate. As a result, Teravainen is likely to fall below the projection from Coleman’s contract (and by extension, the Brendan Gallagher projection in a similar range).
Then looking at the remaining five comps, you see a clear difference in the payment rate for the deals from 2015/2016, and the three more recent deals. Looking at the more recent Rakell, Bailey and Rust deals, they’d have him at a maximum of $6.1M on a six-year deal.
Now, with both Bailey and Rust, they were signing during/after a huge outlier year in comparison to their career production, which likely affected their payment rate. As a result, Teravainen is likely up above the $4.75M-ish projections from those two deals.
By far the best comp available is the Rickard Rakell contract. Rakell was consistent with his production (even if it was lower than that of Teravainen), and signed at the same age. Based on Teravainen’s higher production and the rising cap, we get a pretty clear look at a $6M projection from the Rakell deal, even if six years may be a little longer than a team should go on Teravainen’s deal.
5 YEARS
Five years may be the most likely term for Teravainen’s deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| *Jakob Silfverberg | 29 | 2019 | 23-35 56GP | 19-40 475GP | 21-38 | $5.25M 5 years | $5.67M 5 years | 1.49 | $8.50M 5 years |
| David Backes | 32 | 2016 | 22-47 79GP | 23-52 727GP | 23-50 | $6.00M 5 years | $7.23M 5 years | 1.45 | $8.25M 5 years |
| James van Riemsdyk | 29 | 2018 | 36-55 81GP | 27-53 609GP | 32-54 | $7.00M 5 years | $7.75M 5 years | 1.43 | $8.15M 5 years |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 82GP | 16-37 433GP | 16-41 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.27M 5 years | 1.29 | $7.35M 5 years |
| Alexander Radulov | 31 | 2017 | 19-58 76GP | 23-56 230GP | 21-57 | $6.25M 5 years | $7.33M 5 years | 1.29 | $7.33M 5 years |
| Jordan Eberle | 29 | 2019 | 20-39 78GP | 26-59 666GP | 23-49 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.94M 5 years | 1.21 | $6.90M 5 years |
| Jaden Schwartz | 29 | 2021 | 16-43 40GP | 23-56 560GP | 20-50 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.94M 5 years | 1.19 | $6.78M 5 years |
| Ondrej Palat | 31 | 2022 | 19-52 77GP | 19-55 628GP | 19-54 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.40M 5 years | 1.19 | $6.76M 5 years |
| *Patric Hornqvist | 31 | 2018 | 27-51 51GP | 25-51 630GP | 26-51 | $5.30M 5 years | $5.87M 5 years | 1.15 | $6.56M 5 years |
| Mats Zuccarello | 32 | 2019 | 21-68 48GP | 18-57 511GP | 20-63 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.48M 5 years | 1.03 | $5.86M 5 years |
Of the comps for a possible five-year deal, we see a range of $5.85M on the low end, to $8.5M on the high end. Still, taking out outliers on both ends, and six of the 10 comps would have Teravainen between a range of $6.55M to $7.35M.
Of the Barbashev and Radulov comps though, Barbashev was also fresh off a Stanley Cup, which likely drove up his payment rate a little bit. As a result, Teravainen is likely lower than the $7.35M projection (and by extension, Radulov’s similar projection).
Below that though, we have a pretty defined range of comps, between $6.55M (Hornqvist) and $6.9M (Eberle). All are relatively recent comps as well, pointing to the fact that Teravainen would likely come in around this range.
One thing to note though is that looking at the actual comps, few exceed $6M. So while some comps may have Teravainen getting closer to the $7M range, it’s probably unlikely he gets past the $6.5M mark.
4 YEARS
Four years would be another possible term for Teravainen’s contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| *Max Pacioretty | 31 | 2019 | 22-47 64GP | 30-59 626GP | 26-53 | $7.00M 4 years | $7.56M 4 years | 1.43 | $8.15M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 51GP | 25-48 612GP | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.32 | $7.50M 4 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 29 | 2021 | 21-43 51GP | 17-53 591GP | 19-48 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.13 | $6.44M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 71GP | 18-41 361GP | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.85M 4 years | 1.10 | $6.27M 4 years |
| *Mats Zuccarello | 28 | 2015 | 16-51 60GP | 17-52 204GP | 17-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.55M 4 years | 1.07 | $6.10M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 81GP | 21-50 500GP | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $6.04M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 53GP | 27-72 680GP | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.48M 4 years | 1.04 | $5.93M 4 years |
| *Alex Iafallo | 28 | 2021 | 23-53 40GP | 16-39 267GP | 20-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.32M 4 years | 0.94 | $5.36M 4 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 28 | 2020 | 29-53 68GP | 23-47 525GP | 26-50 | $4.25M 4 years | $4.59M 4 years | 0.92 | $5.25M 4 years |
| Evander Kane | 31 | 2022 | 42-74 43GP | 29-55 812GP | 36-65 | $5.13M 4 years | $5.47M 4 years | 0.84 | $4.79M 4 years |
| David Perron | 30 | 2018 | 19-77 70GP | 20-50 722GP | 20-64 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.43M 4 years | 0.69 | $3.93M 4 years |
Aside from the two clear outliers at the top of the comps in Pacioretty and Palmieri, and the two outliers at the bottom of the comps in Kane and Perron, and the other seven comps would all have Teravainen in the range of $5.25M to $6.45M on a four-year deal.
Even within those comps though, four of them would all be within about $5.9M and $6.3M. Plus, Taylor Hall, Gustav Nyquist and Mats Zuccarello (all within that range), had relatively similar production to Teravainen. As a result, somewhere right around the $6M range, or a bit higher, would be most realistic for a four-year deal.
3 YEARS
A three-year deal for Teravainen would be possible, but less likely. This length of deal would having him re-entering the market at nearly 33 years old, which would be a bit less attractive of an age for teams looking to sign him. So if he gets an offer at a longer term (which he likely will), he should take it.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| Frank Vatrano | 28 | 2022 | 21-37 71GP | 21-35 401GP | 21-36 | $3.65M 3 years | $3.89M 3 years | 1.08 | $6.16M 3 years |
| **Marcus Foligno | 30 | 2021 | 15-35 59GP | 11-27 565GP | 13-31 | $3.10M 3 years | $3.35M 3 years | 1.08 | $6.16M 3 years |
| *Tanner Pearson | 29 | 2021 | 15-27 33GP | 19-38 490GP | 17-33 | $3.25M 3 years | $3.51M 3 years | 1.06 | $6.04M 3 years |
| Reilly Smith | 31 | 2022 | 23-56 56GP | 21-50 686GP | 22-53 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.33M 3 years | 1.01 | $5.76M 3 years |
| Evgenii Dadonov | 31 | 2020 | 30-56 69GP | 27-59 280GP | 29-58 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.40M 3 years | 0.93 | $5.30M 3 years |
| *Nino Niederreiter | 32 | 2024 | 25-46 99GP | 20-41 756GP | 23-44 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.91 | $5.19M 3 years |
| *Ryan Hartman | 30 | 2024 | 21-51 59GP | 17-38 506GP | 19-45 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.89 | $5.07M 3 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 32 | 2021 | 27-57 82GP | 28-59 545GP | 28-58 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.86M 3 years | 0.84 | $4.79M 3 years |
Of the comps, we also see a very defined range of projections, between about $4.75M and $6.15M.
Looking at the comps with the most comparable production as well, Smith and Dadonov were more comparable than a lot of the others and would have Teravainen around the $5.5M mark.
2 YEARS
A two-year deal is extremely unlikely for Teravainen. Typically, UFA wingers with production as high as Teravainen’s numbers would either take the security of a deal with term, or take a one-year deal to bet on themselves and re-enter the market later.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| Andreas Athanasiou | 29 | 2023 | 20-40 81GP | 22-42 459GP | 21-41 | $4.25M 2 years | $4.48M 2 years | 1.09 | $4.81M 2 years |
| Marcus Johansson | 29 | 2019 | 18-42 58GP | 17-47 588GP | 18-45 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 1.08 | $4.75M 2 years |
| David Perron | 28 | 2016 | 14-42 71GP | 20-48 570GP | 17-45 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.52M 2 years | 1.00 | $4.42M 2 years |
So while it’s very unlikely, and even the projections would be very unrealistically low, the comps would all have him at between $4.4M and $4.8M.
1 YEAR
One-year deals have become more popular for UFAs, but it remains fairly unlikely that Teravainen would sign for this length of contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 30 | 2024 | 27-57 76GP | 19-56 465GP | 23-57 | ||||
| Wayne Simmonds | 31 | 2019 | 18-31 79GP | 24-46 841GP | 21-39 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.40M 1 year | 1.38 | $7.87M 1 year |
| Taylor Hall | 29 | 2020 | 20-66 65GP | 29-74 627GP | 25-70 | $8.00M 1 year | $8.64M 1 year | 1.23 | $7.01M 1 year |
| Jason Zucker | 31 | 2023 | 28-50 78GP | 24-44 628GP | 26-47 | $5.30M 1 year | $5.59M 1 year | 1.19 | $6.78M 1 year |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 28 | 2023 | 13-49 326GP | 23-55 326GP | 18-52 | $5.50M 1 year | $5.80M 1 year | 1.11 | $6.33M 1 year |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 69GP | 33-70 675GP | 27-65 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.27M 1 year | 0.81 | $4.62M 1 year |
| Mike Hoffman | 31 | 2020 | 34-70 69GP | 29-60 493GP | 32-65 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.32M 1 year | 0.66 | $3.76M 1 year |
Still, looking at the comps, they’d have Teravainen between about $3.75M and $7.87M.
While the range is very wide, we do see more of a trend of the actual cap hits given out for one-year deals. Of the comparables, most are either right at $5M, or very close to that mark. So while Jason Zucker’s cap hit of around a $5.3M may be more likely based on Teravainen’s higher production than most comps, any possibility of a one-year deal likely comes with around a $5M cap hit.
Projection
A deal between three and six years is most likely for Teravainen, at varying projected cap hits.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 Years | $5.50M | $6.25M | $4.75M |
| 4 Years | $6.13M | $6.50M | $5.25M |
| 5 Years | $6.50M | $7.35M | $5.85M |
| 6 Years | $6.00M | $6.75M | $5.00M |
A less likely option would be a one-year or two-year deal for Teravainen.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 1 Year | $5.25M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
| 2 Years | $4.75M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
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