One year removed from his second Stanley Cup win, Stephenson could be set to find his third NHL team.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Selected by the Washington Capitals in the third round of the 2012 NHL Draft, Chandler Stephenson took a few years to make the full-time jump to the NHL. When he did though – joining the Capitals in 2017-18 – Stephenson captured a Stanley Cup with the team in his rookie season.

The forward remained with the team for another year and a half, playing down the lineup, but ended up being traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2020 for just a fifth-round pick. In Vegas, however, Stephenson found a new gear to his game.

Over nearly 300 games across the last four seasons, Stephenson has scored at a pace of 62 points per 82 while playing primarily down the middle, and captured a second Stanley Cup in 2023 with Vegas. The forward has high-end speed with great playmaking ability, and he’ll be one of the better centers in free agency this year.

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What We Know

• Following the Golden Knights’ addition of Tomas Hertl at the trade deadline, an extension for Stephenson seems less likely.
• Per Pierre LeBrun, the Nashville Predators could have interest in Stephenson, if he hits free agency.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Stephenson’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Stephenson at 30 years old heading into free agency, comparables were generally kept to centers who were between 28 and 32 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for all tables below.

6 YEARS

Six years is likely the maximum term we’d see for Stephenson’s deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Chandler Stephenson	30	2024	17-56 75GP	15-45 495GP	16-51
*Ryan Kesler	32	2016	20-48 81GP	23-49 736GP	22-49	$6.88M 6 years	$8.29M 6 years	1.69	$8.62M 6 years
Phillip Danault	28	2021	8-37 53GP	12-42 392GP	10-40	$5.50M 6 years	$5.94M 6 years	1.49	$7.60M 6 years
***Charlie Coyle	28	2020	13-37 106GP	15-41 525GP	14-39	$5.25M 6 years	$5.67M 6 years	1.45	$7.40M 6 years
Brock Nelson	28	2019	25-53 82GP	21-41 480GP	23-47	$6.00M 6 years	$6.48M 6 years	1.38	$7.04M 6 years
*David Krejci	29	2015	19-71 80GP	18-62 504GP	19-67	$7.25M 6 years	$8.94M 6 years	1.33	$6.78M 6 years
*Mikael Backlund	29	2018	14-48 58GP	16-41 519GP	15-45	$5.35M 6 years	$5.92M 6 years	1.32	$6.73M 6 years
Frans Nielsen	32	2016	20-53 81GP	16-47 606GP	18-50	$5.25M 6 years	$6.33M 6 years	1.27	$6.48M 6 years
***Kyle Turris	29	2018	28-59 89GP	21-48 544GP	25-54	$6.00M 6 years	$6.64M 6 years	1.23	$6.27M 6 years
**Jean-Gabriel Pageau	28	2020	33-55 60GP	17-35 428GP	25-45	$5.00M 6 years	$5.40M 6 years	1.20	$6.12M 6 years
*Bryan Little	29	2018	24-60 57GP	22-52 613GP	23-56	$5.29M 6 years	$5.86M 6 years	1.05	$5.36M 6 years
**Jonathan Marchessault	28	2018	35-87 35GP	27-55 157GP	31-71	$5.00M 6 years	$5.53M 6 years	0.78	$3.98M 6 years

Based on the comps, aside from three outliers in Ryan Kesler, Bryan Little, and Jonathan Marchessault, all projections would have Stephenson between $6.1M and $7.6M on a six-year deal.

Of the eight comps within that range, five of them would have Stephenson below the $7M mark, but at the same time, six of them would have him around $6.5M or higher. Plus, given Stephenson is off a recent Stanley Cup win, and ‘Stanley Cup tax’ has proven to be a factor in recent years, we can expect he wouldn’t be at the low end of the range set by the comps here. So somewhere between the $6.5M and $7M range is the most likely range for any six-year deal, even though this wouldn’t be the most likely term for Stephenson’s contract.

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5 YEARS

A five-year term may be most likely for Stephenson’s contract.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Chandler Stephenson	30	2024	17-56 75GP	15-45 495GP	16-51
David Backes	32	2016	22-47 79GP	23-52 727GP	23-50	$6.00M 5 years	$7.23M 5 years	1.45	$7.40M 5 years
*Adam Henrique	29	2019	24-51 81GP	23-47 512GP	24-49	$5.85M 5 years	$6.32M 5 years	1.29	$6.58M 5 years
Andrew Copp	28	2022	24-60 72GP	14-34 483GP	19-47	$5.63M 5 years	$6.01M 5 years	1.28	$6.53M 5 years
J.T. Compher	28	2023	17-52 82GP	17-38 423GP	17-45	$5.10M 5 years	$5.37M 5 years	1.19	$6.07M 5 years
Ryan Strome	29	2022	23-60 74GP	17-47 621GP	20-54	$5.00M 5 years	$5.33M 5 years	0.99	$5.05M 5 years

Of the comps, there are two outliers, coming from the Backes deal on the high end, and the Strome deal on the low end. That said, three of the five comps would have him between about $6.1M and $6.6M, including two very. recent comps in Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher.

Compher ($6.1M projection) acts as a really interesting comp, also one year removed from a Cup win at the time of signing. At the same time, the Henrique/Copp deals would point to Stephenson being a little above the $6.5M mark. So somewhere between those two marks likely acts as the most realistic scenario for a five-year contract for Stephenson.

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4 YEARS

Once we get into four-year deals though, it’s entering a less likely term for Stephenson’s deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Chandler Stephenson	30	2024	17-56 75GP	15-45 495GP	16-51
Nick Bonino	29	2017	18-38 80GP	15-38 407GP	17-38	$4.10M 4 years	$4.81M 4 years	1.27	$6.46M 4 years
Mikael Granlund	29	2021	21-43 51GP	17-53 591GP	19-48	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years	1.13	$5.74M 4 years
Ryan O’Reilly	32	2023	25-46 53GP	21-58 991GP	23-52	$4.50M 4 years	$4.73M 4 years	0.91	$4.64M 4 years

There have been very few four-year comps in terms of centers around Stephenson’s age. Of those we do have, the Ryan O’Reilly deal was also surely an underpayment where he could’ve made more money, so it doesn’t act as an overly realistic comp for Stephenson.

Then of the other two with Bonino and Granlund, we see two players who had much lower signing year stats than Stephenson, which create a possibly inaccurate comparison. Still, the two contracts would project Stephenson between about $5.75M and $6.45M on a four-year deal, with his value likely landing on the middle/upper end of this range based on the higher production, and the fact that like Bonino ($6.45M projection), Stephenson was recently coming off a Stanley Cup.

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2-3 YEARS

A two or three-year deal would be even more unlikely, based on a huge lack of comps for centers around his age.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Chandler Stephenson	30	2024	17-56 75GP	15-45 495GP	16-51
Tyler Bozak	32	2018	11-44 81GP	19-50 594GP	15-47	$5.00M 3 years	$5.53M 3 years	1.18	$6.01M 3 years
*Ryan Hartman	30	2024	21-51 59GP	17-38 506GP	19-45	$4.00M 3 years	$4.00M 3 years	0.89	$4.54M 3 years
**Jason Dickinson	29	2024	26-39 44GP	11-25 405GP	19-32	$4.25M 2 years	$4.25M 2 years	1.33	$6.77M 2 years

Of the comps, the three-year deals would have Stephenson between $4.5M and $6M. Still, of the two, Bozak had a longer track record of higher production, and especially with other comps pointing to Stephenson around the $6M range, this looks like the more likely scenario.

For the two-year comp with Dickinson, the projection would be about $6.75M. While Dickinson was overpaid on his deal based on Chicago’s abudance of short-term cap space though, it’s still actually a fairly realisitc comp. We’ve seen it more with defenders, but there’s been a recent trend of taking a two-year deal at an inflated cap hit, then re-entering the market sooner (in the cases of Dmitry Orlov and Vladislav Gavrikov). So while it’s still very unlikely, if Stephenson could take a high cap hit on a two-year deal on a team where he can sustain or improve his production, he could still be in a decent position to re-enter the market at 32 years old in 2026.

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1 YEAR

While one-year deals have become more common for UFA forwards, there are very few examples of this with centers, so winger comparables are included in the comps below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Chandler Stephenson	30	2024	17-56 75GP	15-45 495GP	16-51
Wayne Simmonds	31	2019	18-31 79GP	24-46 841GP	21-39	$5.00M 1 year	$5.40M 1 year	1.38	$7.18M 1 year
Taylor Hall	29	2020	20-66 65GP	29-74 627GP	25-70	$8.00M 1 year	$8.64M 1 year	1.23	$6.40M 1 year
Jason Zucker	31	2023	28-50 78GP	24-44 628GP	26-47	$5.30M 1 year	$5.59M 1 year	1.19	$6.19M 1 year
Tyler Bertuzzi	28	2023	13-49 326GP	23-55 326GP	18-52	$5.00M 1 year	$5.27M 1 year	1.01	$5.25M 1 year
Vladimir Tarasenko	32	2023	21-59 69GP	33-70 675GP	27-65	$5.00M 1 year	$5.27M 1 year	0.81	$4.21M 1 year

The comps would generate a wide range of projections, but aside from outliers in the Simmonds and Tarasenko contracts, the other three comps would have Stephenson between $5.25M and $6.4M for one year. So in the unlikely scenario Stephenson did take a one-year deal to build value and re-enter the market a year from now (following another expected salary cap increase), a deal somewhere within that projected range, likely around the $6M mark, would be realistic.

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Projection

A five-year deal remains the most likely scenario for Stephenson’s next contract, followed by a six-year deal.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
5 Years	$6.30M	$6.60M	$6.00M
6 Years	$6.67M	$7.50M	$6.00M

There’s also a small chance he could opt for a one-year contract, which has become a little more popular for UFAs in recent years. Still, this is unlikely compared to other contract terms.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
1 Year	$6.00M	$7.00M	$5.25M

Anything in the range of two to four years would be unlikely for Stephenson as well, based on a lack of comps, but projections are below.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
4 Years	$6.25M	$6.50M	$5.75M
3 Years	$6.00M	$6.50M	$5.50M
2 Years	$6.75M	$6.75M	$6.00M