Kane’s short stint in Detroit proved he can still provide high-level offense.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Through 17 seasons in the NHL and now into his mid-30s, Patrick Kane has managed to remain a high-producing winger.

The forward’s on-ice resume speaks for itself, with three Stanley Cups, a Calder Trophy, a Conn Smythe Trophy, a Hart Trophy, an Art Ross Trophy, and a Ted Lindsay Award. After a decade and a half as a franchise cornerstone with the Chicago Blackhawks though, the winger has bounced around a bit over the last calendar year, playing 19 regular season games with the New York Rangers post-trade deadline in 2023, before signing with the Detroit Red Wings for this past season.

Despite going on 36 years old in November, Kane showed this year that he can still post near point-per-game numbers, scoring 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games with Detroit. While his game has never been the most well-rounded, and he’ll provide his value exclusively through offensive production, he can still be a great add for a team looking to upgrade their scoring.

What We Know

• Per Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts, term is important to Kane for his contract.
• Kane and the Red Wings are still in talks for a new contract, per Pierre LeBrun. That said, per Frank Seravalli, the Red Wings are unlikely to re-sign Kane.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Kane’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how payment rate is calculated, visit the About the Site page.

With Kane turning 36 years old in November, comparables were generally kept to wingers who were between 34 and 38 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for all tables below.

4 YEARS

Four-year deals for players of Kane’s age are rare, but there’s one recent comparable for it.

With Evgeni Malkin, it was somewhat of a similar situation to Kane. He had some recent injury trouble, and despite this, was able to get a four-year deal at a lower cap hit than he would’ve had on a shorter deal. While Malkin’s a center and Kane is a winger, the players were the same age for the first year of the contract. As a result, we have a very clear indication of what Kane could make on a four-year deal, just below the $6M mark.

3 YEARS

While four years is possible, three years is likely the longest term we’d see for Kane’s deal.

Of the comps, they’d project Kane somewhere between $7.5M and $11.4M on a three-year deal. Obviously though, Kane isn’t coming in anywhere near the high end of that range, and the $7.5M projection from Giroux would likely be the highest possible cap hit we could see for him. Kane was also quite a bit older than any of the bottom three comps, which points to him coming in lower than those projections.

Plus, with the actual cap hits/adjusted cap hits of the comps, all of them were signed between $6.25M and $7M, which adjust to about $7M to $7.5M on an $88M salary cap. Considering teams haven’t shown willingness in recent years to go above that price point for older forwards, it would even be surprising to see Kane reach $7M or above, and the more realistic scenario could be aligned to the actual cap hits of many of the recent comps, around the $6.5M mark.

2 YEARS

At two years, we see another wide range of projections.

Looking at the comps above, the Nick Foligno projection is unlikely for Kane, given he was overpaid by Chicago with their abundance of cap space, making the payment rate less applicable. Then of any of the other comps from 2020 onwards, all would be at $7.2M or below.

Of the bottom five comps though, you also see how much age makes a difference. Eberle, Perron and Nyquist were all 34 years old in the first year of their deal and all had projections in the range of $5.8M to $7.2M, while Zuccarello and Carter were both 37 years old in the first year of their contract, and projected a two-year deal for Kane between $4.75M and $5.15M. So while Kane may not be quite that low, the soon-to-be 36-year-old likely would be set to come in somewhere in between those two ranges, with the middle ground being around a $5.5M cap hit.

1 YEAR

If term is important to Kane, a one-year deal is very unlikely. He’s coming off a good year and will surely get offered more term.

Of the projections though for a one-year deal, it would once again be a wide range, anywhere between $3.2M up to $9.1M. While Kane’s projection of $3.2M was too low, given he signed coming off a major injury and had already missed part of the season, the Foligno/Perry contracts were also far too high, with the recent Chicago overpayment trend in mind.

So we’re likely looking at a range of about $4.4M to $6.4M, from the Vrbata to Stastny contracts. Of these deals though, the Pavelski, Okposo and Stastny contracts were far more recent than Vrbata and Vanek, which likely gives us a better look towards what a one-year deal would look like. Plus, with Pavelski also producing at a high rate in his signing year and extending on a $5.5M cap hit, that number is the best look we have at what Kane’s likely value on a one-year deal could be.

A one-year contract is also where we could see a player take a deal with bonuses. This could result in a lower cap hit and higher AAV, often with games played as a major factor in those bonuses. That said, if Kane didn’t take a deal which included games played bonuses last year (where he was coming off a major injury), it seems unlikely he’d be willing to go that route this time around, in the unlikely scenario he did sign a one-year deal.

Projection

Kane’s next deal will almost certainly come in between one and four years, with projections below.

The other thing to point out though is that with Kane now into his mid-30s, he may not be prioritizing money. He has well over $100 million in career earnings and limited years remaining in his career, so if he can find the right fit, we could certainly see him take less money to go to a team he wants to play for.